Labor's Share of the Business Cycle: Do Biased Technology Shocks Cause Business Cycles?

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew T. Young
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Labor's Share

scholarly journals Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?

1999 ◽  
Vol 89 (1) ◽  
pp. 249-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordi Galí
Keyword(s):  
Simple Model ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Monopolistic Competition ◽  
Real Business Cycle ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
G7 Countries ◽  
Technology Shock ◽  
The Business Cycle

I estimate a decomposition of productivity and hours into technology and non-technology components. Two results stand out: (a) the estimated conditional correlations of hours and productivity are negative for technology shocks, positive for nontechnology shocks; (b) hours show a persistent decline in response to a positive technology shock. Most of the results hold for a variety of model specifications, and for the majority of G7 countries. The picture that emerges is hard to reconcile with a conventional real-business-cycle interpretation of business cycles, but is shown to be consistent with a simple model with monopolistic competition and sticky prices. (JEL E32, E24)

EXPANSIONS AND RECESSIONS IN THE MEXICAN STATES: A CLASSICAL BUSINESS CYCLES APPROACH

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Pablo Mejía-Reyes
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Output Measure ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
National Business ◽  
Cycle Indicator

This paper aims to document expansions and recessions characteristics for 17 states of Mexico over the period 1993-2006 by using a classical business cycle approach. We use the manufacturing production index for each state as the business cycle indicator since it is the only output measure available on a monthly basis. According to this approach, we analyse asymmetries in mean, volatility and duration as well as synchronisation over the business cycle regimes (expansions and recessions) for each case. Our results indicate that recessions are less persistent and more volatile (in general) than expansions in most Mexican states; yet, there is no clear cut evidence on mean asymmetries. In turn, there seems to be strong links between the business cycle regimes within the Northern and Central regions of the country and between states with similar industrialisation patterns, although it is difficult to claim that a national business cycle exists.

scholarly journals Business cycles and earnings management strategies: a study in Brazilian public firms,

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (80) ◽  
pp. 216-233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edilson Paulo ◽  
Renato Henrique Gurgel Mota
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Earnings Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Accounting Information ◽  
Discretionary Accruals ◽  
Real Earnings Management ◽  
Economic Environment ◽  
Opportunistic Behavior ◽  
The Business Cycle

ABSTRACT This study contributes to the literature dealing with the influence of macroeconomic factors on accounting information quality, since it analyzes the earnings management strategies of firms, specifically identifying different discretionary behaviors among economic cycles: 1) different levels of earnings management through accruals between phases of the business cycle, and 2) the trade-off between earnings management through accruals and real earnings management. The results indicate that the accounting information reported should be analyzed with greater caution by its users, especially in periods of great economic oscillations, when managers can increase or reduce opportunistic behavior. The research population comprised non-financial companies with shares traded on the São Paulo Stock, Commodities, and Futures Exchange (BM&FBovespa) and the sample was composed of 247 firms per year, covering the period from 2000 to 2015 and totaling 2,501 observations. The phases of business cycles were used as a proxy for the economic environment and were based on Schumpeter's (1939) study, which divides an business cycle into four distinct phases: expansion, recession, contraction, and recovery. Discretionary accruals were estimated according to the Pae (2005) and Paulo (2007) models. Real earnings management was estimated as described by Roychowdhury (2006), using only the abnormal behavior of production costs and operational decisions. The results of this research show that earnings management strategies, using either accruals or real manipulation, as well as the choice between these strategies, are impacted by the economic environment. The evidence suggests that managers have different opportunistic behavior in each phase of the business cycle. Specifically, they increase the level of discretionary accruals in contractionary phases and reduce it during recoveries, while they manage earnings downwards via real manipulation in recessions and contractions.

Book Reviews

2014 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 538-540 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Early Years ◽  
African Studies ◽  
Intellectual Biography ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The University

Michael Assous of Universite Paris I Pantheon-Sorbonne P.H.A.R.E. reviews “Michal Kalecki: An Intellectual Biography: Volume I, Rendezvous in Cambridge 1899–1939”, by Jan Toporowski. The Econlit abstract of this book begins: “Presents an intellectual biography of Polish economist Michal Kalecki, focusing on the years 1899–1939. Discusses the early years; the crucible of the Polish Revolution; economic journalism; a move to Warsaw; the Institute for the Study of Business Cycles and Prices; the socialist discussions; the enigma of the business cycle; Sweden; London; from London to Cambridge; seeking work again; the first synthesis of theory; Kalecki and his colleagues at the Cambridge Project; and shared ideas amid mutual incomprehension. Toporowski is with the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London.”

Technology Shocks and the Great Depression

2016 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 909-933 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shingo Watanabe
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Great Depression ◽  
Imperfect Competition ◽  
Real Business Cycle ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Large Fluctuations ◽  
Technology Growth

Standard productivity measures indicate large fluctuations in technology during the Great Depression. This article's historical technology series (1892–1966), controlled for aggregation effects, varying input utilization, non-constant returns, and imperfect competition, does not indicate technology regress such that could trigger the downturn. In contrast, technology improvements in the recovery were so rapid that, over the whole Great Depression period, technology growth was highest among pre-WWII decades. This article also finds that output changed little and inputs fell when technology improved in the pre-WWII period. Real-business-cycle models have difficulty in explaining pre-WWII business cycles characterized by such responses.

scholarly journals INTENSITAS PERDAGANGAN DAN KESELARASAN SIKLUS BISNIS DI ASEAN-4 DAN UNI EROPA *

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 163
Author(s):  
Etty Puji Lestari
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Currency Union ◽  
Policy Coordination ◽  
Trade Intensity ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Monetary Policy Coordination ◽  
The Business Cycle

The main objective of this research is to empirically analyze how the business cycle of ASEAN-4 (namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Philippines) economies are influenced by increased trade with European Union especially Netherland and Germany. Increased trade can lead business cycles across trading partners to be patterned in either direction, towards convergence or divergence. We used regression and vectorautoregression (VAR) methods for this research. Regression methods is based panel data whereas VAR is based on the time series analysis. There are four variables, which are business cycle, trade intensity, fiscal policy coordination and monetary policy coordination. This research conclude that trade intensity and monetary policy coordination are the major channel though which the business cycles of ASEAN-4 economies become synchronized. This has important implications for the formation of a currency union.

scholarly journals A Statistical Investigation of Business Cycles Characteristics in Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol II (I) ◽  
pp. 73-84
Author(s):  
Niaz Ali ◽  
Muhammad Tariq ◽  
Asia Baig
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Statistical Investigation ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Full Sample ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Nominal Variables

This study investigates the business cycle characteristics for Pakistan using three sets of variables namely expenditure components of GDP, nominal variables and real variables. The findings reveal that the volatility of expenditure components are greater than GDP during the full sample of 1973 to 2015. Whereas, in the Pre-SAP and Post-SAP periods i.e. 1973-1988 and 1989-2015, real variables and nominal variables show more volatility than GDP. And, in terms of co-movement, expenditure components of GDP showed strong pro-cyclicality and relationship with GDP against other sets of variables. Moreover, the nominal variables show positive persistence and the business cycles caused by it, lasting for a long time against real variables and expenditure components of GDP. Furthermore, the results show that the correlation between CPI and GDP across all periods is counter cyclical. The stability test results show that business cycles features remained stable during two time periods.

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