scholarly journals Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cade Massey ◽  
Richard Thaler
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
National Football League

Testing Labor Market Efficiency Across Position Groups in the NFL

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 1093-1121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael A. Roach
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Team Performance ◽  
National Football League ◽  
Marginal Impact ◽  
Market Inefficiency

This article proposes a new metric to proxy for the incidence of player absences faced by National Football League teams based on the percentage of team payroll resources that are inactive over the course of a season. This variable significantly predicts team performance. Calculating this measure for individual position groups allows me to test for differences in the marginal impact of salary resources across these groups. Results indicate that resources dedicated to offense, in particular to offensive linemen and starting quarterbacks, have the highest marginal impact on team performance. This suggests a market inefficiency where these players were relatively underpaid.

FORECASTING NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE GAME OUTCOMES RELATIVE TO BETTING SPREADS

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
William Mallios
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
New York ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
National Football League ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Volatility Risk ◽  
Varying Coefficients ◽  
Time Varying Coefficients ◽  
Linear Regressions

Cointegrated time processes measuring NFL playoff game performances relative to the betting spreads are graphed in terms of candlestick charts and forecast in terms of autoregressive systems with time varying coefficients. Coefficients are modeled in terms of linear regressions on lagged shocks. Estimation is non Bayesian. Forecasts provide measures of market efficiency/inefficiency and outcome volatility. Risk assessment utilizes GARCH-type modeling in estimating volatility. Applications are presented for the New York Giants 2012 playoff games based on a data backlog of three years.

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