scholarly journals Oil Prices, Welfare and the Trade Balance: An Intertemporal Approach

10.3386/w0991 ◽  
1982 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars E.O. Svensson
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Oil Prices

External factors condition Chile's economic outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Local Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Copper Mines ◽  
Economic Outlook

Significance This year, Chile will face a complex mix of external factors as it seeks to reverse last year's deceleration of GDP growth. Conflicting effects on areas that include not only the trade balance but also investment, inflation and fiscal revenues make forecasts for the economy's performance this year more than usually uncertain. Impacts Industry estimates suggest that up to half of Chile's 1,000 small copper mines could be forced to close. Because some Chilean power plants use diesel, international oil prices will have an important spin-off effect on electricity prices. In coming months, local growth forecasts will be particularly sensitive to news from overseas -- especially China.

US consumption may start to pick up

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Trust Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Consumption Expenditures ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
West Texas ◽  
Personal Consumption ◽  
The Us

Significance One of the conundrums of the US economy that will influence the Federal Reserve's timing of an interest rate rise (currently projected for September) is where the savings from low energy prices have gone. Oil prices have dropped sharply since September 2014, from 97 dollars per barrel for West Texas Intermediate in June 2014 to 60 dollars per barrel today. Yet US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) only grew by 2.7%, well below the rate of growth of personal income, 4.1%. Impacts Greater spending on petrol will help the Highway Trust Fund slightly, but not before a new funding package is due by July 31. Low oil prices will outweigh consumer savings in such producing states as Texas and North Dakota. Greater consumer spending will adversely affect the US trade balance, as imports will rise due to the strong dollar.

scholarly journals Formulating and Estimating of Dynamic Nonlinear Model of Korea’s Bilateral Trade Balance

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 161
Author(s):  
Heonyong Jung
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Integration Test

This paper formulates and estimates the dynamic nonlinear trade model for Korea. We use monthly time series data for the period from 2000 to 2017. We employ EGARCH (1,1)-GED model which allows the positive and negative shocks to have asymmetric influences on volatility. The Johansen co-integration test is applied and finds the long run relationship among oil price, exchange rate and trade balance does exist. With respect to Indonesia as one of oil exporting countries, we find that an increase in oil prices leads to a declined trade balance as imports rise more than exports. Appreciation in IDR also leads to a declined trade balance as exports fall more than imports. For Korea as one of oil importing countries, an increase in oil prices leads to an improved trade balance as exports rise more than imports. Appreciation in KRW leads to a declined trade balance as exports fall more than imports. Oil price volatility reduces trade balance both in Indonesia and Korea. Oil price has negative effects on Indonesia’s trade balance and positive effects on Korea’s trade balance. Indonesian and Korean currency appreciation against US dollar have a negative impact on trade balance in Indonesia and Korea respectively. This information will contribute to Indonesian and Korean policy makers in making policies for their trade.

THE J-CURVE AND KOREA’S BILATERAL TRADE: THE ROLE OF CRUDE OIL PRICES

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
JIANGQIN XU ◽  
JUNGHO BAEK
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Validity Evidence ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Rate Asymmetry ◽  
J Curve

Although oil prices likely influence the trade balance via macroeconomy channels (i.e. exchange rates and income), less widely recognized is the possibility of such an effect in investigating the hypothesis of a J-Curve. Thus, the primary thrust of this paper is to investigate the effect of oil prices on the J-Curve using bilateral trade data between Korea and her 14 largest partners. We uncover that the price of crude oil is indeed important in affecting the Korean trade balance and thus further validity evidence of the J-Curve. We further discover that incorporating exchange rate asymmetry provides more evidence supporting the J-Curve in the Korean trade balance.

scholarly journals Oil Prices, Welfare, and the Trade Balance

1984 ◽  
Vol 99 (4) ◽  
pp. 649 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars E. O. Svensson
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Oil Prices

scholarly journals CHANGES OF EU COUNTRIES POSITIONS IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE OF MINERAL FUELS IN 2006–2015

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 151-159
Author(s):  
Dariusz Staszczak
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
The Third ◽  
Oil Shock ◽  
The Eu

This paper analyzes changes of exports, imports and trade balance in mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials (named fuels in this article) of EU member states in 2006–2015. Fuels are specific commodities because the most of the EU countries are dependent on fuel imports. Moreover, trade balance in fuels is important for EU countries because of its significant importance for trade balance in all goods. Author illustrated a dominating position of net importer of fuels in this period. There were the following most important net importers of fuels in 2015: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Belgium, Austria and Poland. In 2006, Germany was also the first net importer but Italy was the second one and France the third one. Poland obtained the ninth position in 2006. Denmark was the EU net exporter of fuels in the researched period. Moreover, trade deficit in fuels of most EU net importers improved, i.e. decreased in 2015 in comparison to the situation in 2006 because of the lower oil prices and undertaking of ecological innovations in production, including the agriculture. In the researched analyzed period, the biggest imports and trade deficits in fuels of the majority of EU countries were in 2008. Such a situation was connected with the third oil shock.

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