scholarly journals Climate change winner in the deep sea? Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of the glass sponge Vazella pourtalesii

2021 ◽  
Vol 657 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
L Beazley ◽  
E Kenchington ◽  
FJ Murillo ◽  
D Brickman ◽  
Z Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Deep Water ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Scotian Shelf ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Glass Sponge ◽  
Core Habitat ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Shallow-water sponges are often cited as being ‘climate change winners’ due to their resiliency against climate change effects compared to other benthic taxa. However, little is known of the impacts of climate change on deep-water sponges. The deep-water glass sponge Vazella pourtalesii is distributed off eastern North America, forming dense sponge grounds with enhanced biodiversity on the Scotian Shelf off Nova Scotia, Canada. While the strong natural environmental variability that characterizes these sponge grounds suggests this species is resilient to a changing environment, its physiological limitations remain unknown, and the impact of more persistent anthropogenic climate change on its distribution has never been assessed. We used Random Forest and generalized additive models to project the distribution of V. pourtalesii in the northwest Atlantic using environmental conditions simulated under moderate and worst-case CO2 emission scenarios. Under future (2046-2065) climate change, the suitable habitat of V. pourtalesii will increase up to 4 times its present-day size and shift into deeper waters and higher latitudes, particularly in its northern range where ocean warming will serve to improve the habitat surrounding this originally sub-tropical species. However, not all areas projected as suitable habitat in the future will realistically be populated, and the reduced likelihood of occurrence in its core habitat on the Scotian Shelf suggests that the existing Vazella sponge grounds may be negatively impacted. An effective monitoring programme will require tracking changes in the density and distribution of V. pourtalesii at the margins between core habitat and where losses and gains were projected.

scholarly journals Effect of climate change on the potential distribution of Heloderma alvarezi (Squamata, Helodermatidae)

ZooKeys ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 1070 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Aarón Gómez-Cruz ◽  
Nancy G. Santos-Hernández ◽  
José Alberto Cruz ◽  
Daniel Ariano-Sánchez ◽  
Christian Ruiz-Castillejos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Conservation Strategies ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Human Footprint ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
The Impact

Climate change represents a real threat to biodiversity conservation worldwide. Although the effects on several species of conservation priority are known, comprehensive information about the impact of climate change on reptile populations is lacking. In the present study, we analyze outcomes on the potential distribution of the black beaded lizard (Heloderma alvarezi Bogert & Martin del Campo, 1956) under global warming scenarios. Its potential distribution, at present and in projections for the years 2050 and 2070, under both optimistic and pessimistic climate change forecasts, were computed using current data records and seven bioclimatic variables. General results predict a shift in the future potential distribution of H. alvarezi due to temperature increase. The optimistic scenario (4.5 W/m2) for 2070 suggests an enlargement in the species’ distribution as a response to the availability of new areas of suitable habitat. On the contrary, the worst-case scenario (7 W/m2) shows a distribution decrease by 65%. Moreover, the range distribution of H. alvarezi is directly related to the human footprint, which consequently could magnify negative outcomes for this species. Our research elucidates the importance of conservation strategies to prevent the extinction of the black beaded lizard, especially considering that this species is highly threatened by aversive hunting.

The Impact of Climate Change on Storage-Yield Curves for Multi-Reservoir Systems

1999 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. R. Nawaz ◽  
A. J. Adeloye ◽  
M. Montaseri
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Runoff Coefficient ◽  
Impact Study ◽  
Yield Functions ◽  
Reservoir Systems ◽  
English System ◽  
Multiple Reservoir ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

In this paper, we report on the results of an investigation into the impacts of climate change on the storage-yield relationships for two multiple-reservoir systems, one in England and the other in Iran. The impact study uses established protocol and obtains perturbed monthly inflow series using a simple runoff coefficient approach which accounts for non-evaporative losses in the catchment, and a number of recently published GCM-based scenarios. The multi-reservoir analysis is based on the sequent-peak algorithm which has been modified to analyse multiple reservoirs and to accommodate explicitly performance norms and reservoir surface fluxes, i.e. evaporation and rainfall. As a consequence, it was also possible to assess the effect of including reservoir surface fluxes on the storage-yield functions. The results showed that, under baseline conditions, consideration of net evaporation will require lower storages for the English system and higher storages for the Iranian system. However, with perturbed hydroclimatology different impacts were obtained depending on the systems' yield and reliability. Possible explanations are offered for the observed behaviours.

scholarly journals The Impact of Human Pressure and Climate Change on the Habitat Availability and Protection of Cypripedium (Orchidaceae) in Northeast China

Plants ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 84
Author(s):  
Huanchu Liu ◽  
Hans Jacquemyn ◽  
Xingyuan He ◽  
Wei Chen ◽  
Yanqing Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Habitat Destruction ◽  
Changbai Mountains ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Human Pressure ◽  
Terrestrial Orchids ◽  
The Future ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
The Impact

Human pressure on the environment and climate change are two important factors contributing to species decline and overall loss of biodiversity. Orchids may be particularly vulnerable to human-induced losses of habitat and the pervasive impact of global climate change. In this study, we simulated the extent of the suitable habitat of three species of the terrestrial orchid genus Cypripedium in northeast China and assessed the impact of human pressure and climate change on the future distribution of these species. Cypripedium represents a genus of long-lived terrestrial orchids that contains several species with great ornamental value. Severe habitat destruction and overcollection have led to major population declines in recent decades. Our results showed that at present the most suitable habitats of the three species can be found in Da Xing’an Ling, Xiao Xing’an Ling and in the Changbai Mountains. Human activity was predicted to have the largest impact on species distributions in the Changbai Mountains. In addition, climate change was predicted to lead to a shift in distribution towards higher elevations and to an increased fragmentation of suitable habitats of the three investigated Cypripedium species in the study area. These results will be valuable for decision makers to identify areas that are likely to maintain viable Cypripedium populations in the future and to develop conservation strategies to protect the remaining populations of these enigmatic orchid species.

Extreme weather highlights longer-term Canada concerns

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Indigenous Peoples ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Focused Attention ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Extreme Cold ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ways Of Life ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Significance The extreme cold comes as the province is still dealing with the damage caused by unprecedented levels of heat and wildfires last summer and then record levels of rainfall and flooding in November. Its experience has focused attention on Canada’s wider vulnerability to the impact of shifting weather patterns and climate change. Impacts The natural resource sectors that are vital to Canada’s economy face an increasingly difficult environment for extraction. Indigenous peoples across the country will see their traditional ways of life further disrupted by climate change. The increasingly evident impacts of climate change on day-to-day life will see voters demand greater action from government. Significant investment in green initiatives, clean energy and climate resiliency initiatives will boost green industries.

Impact of climate change on abstraction for hydropower and public water supply in Wales, UK

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Dallison ◽  
Sopan Patil
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Public Water Supply ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Efficient Operation ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

<p>The impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle and catchment processes has been extensively studied. In Wales, such changes are projected to have a substantial impact on hydrological regimes. However, the impact on the water abstraction capability of key sectors in the country, such as hydropower (HP) and public water supply (PWS), is not yet fully understood. We use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to generate future (2021-2054) daily streamflows under a worst-case scenario of greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) at two large catchments in Wales, the Conwy and Tywi. SWAT streamflow output is used to estimate the abstractable water resources, and therefore changes in the average generation characteristics for 25 run-of-river HP schemes across Conwy and Tywi and the total unmet demand for a single large PWS abstraction in the Tywi. This unmet PWS demand is assessed using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) system under increasing, static, and declining demand scenarios. Mann-Kendall trend analysis is performed to detect and characterise the trends for both sectors.</p><p>Results show greater seasonality in abstraction potential through the study period, with an overall decrease in annual abstraction volume due to summer and autumn streamflow declines outweighing increases seen in winter and spring. For HP, these trends result in a projected decline in annual power generation potential, despite an increasing number of days per year that maximum permitted abstraction is reached. For PWS, under all future demand scenarios, annually there is an increase in the number of days where demand is not met as well as the total shortfall volume of water. Our results suggest that currently installed HP schemes may not make optimal use of future flows, and that the planning of future schemes should take account of these to ensure the most efficient operation is achieved. Moreover, PWS supply sustainability is under threat and will require management and mitigation measures to be implemented to ensure future supplies. Overall, our study provides a novel perspective on the future water resource availability in Wales, giving context to management planning to ensure future HP generation efficiency and PWS sustainability.</p>

scholarly journals Separating the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff: A Review of Method and Application

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Zeng ◽  
Ming-Guo Ma ◽  
Dong-Rui Di ◽  
Wei-Yu Shi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Research Methods ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Research Needs ◽  
Relevant Research ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Separating the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff is an important topic in hydrology, and a large number of methods and theories have been widely used. In this paper, we review the current papers on separating the impacts of climate and human activities on runoff, summarize the progress of relevant research methods and applications in recent years, and discuss future research needs and directions.

scholarly journals People’s perception on agricultural vulnerabilities to climate change and SLR in Bangladesh: adaptation strategies and explanatory variables

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-78
Author(s):  
MA Islam ◽  
SK Paul
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
External Support ◽  
Great Loss ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Climatic Hazards ◽  
People’S Perception ◽  
Relevant Variables ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The objective of this research is to evaluate people’s perception on vulnerabilities of agriculture and to explore effective adaptation options with identifying the underlying demographic, socio-economic and other relevant variables that influence the adaptation strategies in the sea level rise (SLR) hazard induced coastal areas of Bangladesh. The study finds that climate change and induced SLR are emerging threats to coastal agriculture of Bangladesh; hence, farmers are applying different adaptation strategies to reduce the vulnerabilities of coastal agriculture. Selection of effective adaptation strategies to vulnerabilities of agriculture depends not only on the magnitude, intensity and the impacts of climate change and SLR, but also perceptions and types of farmer, land, educational level, indigenous knowledge about adaptation, locational advantages, external support, community awareness and sharing of different effective mechanisms among the farmers. Effective adaptation strategies with high perceptions have significant influence to reduce the vulnerabilities of agriculture considering the adverse impacts of climate change and SLR. In time of extreme climatic hazards when a great loss in agriculture hamper the coastal agrobased economy, different effective indigenous local adaptation strategies through farmer awareness and community co-operation become vital for minimizing the impact of climatic hazards and reducing the vulnerabilities of coastal agriculture.Int. J. Agril. Res. Innov. & Tech. 8 (1): 70-78, June, 2018

Effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases: an updated focus on West Nile virus in humans

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shlomit Paz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
West Nile Virus ◽  
The West ◽  
West Nile ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Transmission Season ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract One of the main impacts of climate change on health is the influence on vector-borne diseases (VBDs). During the last few years, yearly outbreaks of the West Nile virus (WNV) have occurred in many locations, providing evidence of ongoing transmission. Currently, it is the most widely distributed arbovirus in the world. Increases in ambient temperature have impacts on WNV transmission. Indeed, clear associations were found between warm conditions and WNV outbreaks in various areas. The impact of changes in rainfall patterns on the incidence of the disease is influenced by the amount of precipitation (increased rainfall, floods or droughts), depending on the local conditions and the differences in the ecology and sensitivity of the species of mosquito. Predictions indicate that for WNV, increased warming will result in latitudinal and altitudinal expansions of regions climatically suitable for transmission, particularly along the current edges of its transmission areas. Extension of the transmission season is also predicted. As models show that the current climate change trends are expected to continue, it is important to reinforce WNV control efforts and increase the resilience of population health. For a better preparedness, any assessment of future transmission of WNV should consider the impacts of the changing climate.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use/Cover Change on Runoff Based on Improved Budyko Framework Models Considering Arbitrary Partition of the Impacts

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1612
Author(s):  
Manling Xiong ◽  
Ching-Sheng Huang ◽  
Tao Yang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Change Point ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Weighting Factor ◽  
Heihe River ◽  
Runoff Variation ◽  
Pettitt Test ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Various models based on Budyko framework, widely applied to quantify the impacts of climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) on runoff, assumed a fixed partition used to distinguish the impacts. Several articles have applied a weighting factor describing arbitrary partitions for developing a total differential Budyko (TDB) model and a complementary Budyko (CB) model. This study introduces the weighting factor into a decomposition Budyko (DB) model and applies these three models to analyze runoff variation due to the impacts in the upper-midstream Heihe River basin. The Pettitt test is first applied to determine a change point of a time series expanded by the runoff coefficient. The cause for the change point is analyzed. Transition matrix is adopted to investigate factors of LUCC. Results suggest the consistency of the CB, TDB, and present DB models in estimating runoff variation due to the impacts. The existing DB model excluding the weighting factor overestimates the impact of climate change on runoff and underestimates the LUCC impact as compared with the present DB model. With two extreme values of the weighting factor, runoff decrease induced by LUCC falls in the range of 65.20%–66.42% predicted by the CB model, 65.01%–66.57% by the TDB model, and 64.83%–66.85% by the present DB model. The transition matrixes indicate the major factors of LUCC are climate warming in the upstream of the study area and cropping in the midstream. Our work provides researchers with a better understanding of runoff variation due to climate change and LUCC.

scholarly journals Predicting the Bioclimatic Habitat Suitability of Ginkgo biloba L. in China with Field-Test Validations

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 705 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Guo ◽  
Jing Guo ◽  
Xin Shen ◽  
Guibin Wang ◽  
Tongli Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Field Test ◽  
Ginkgo Biloba ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Leaf Traits ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Living Fossil ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
The Impact

Ginkgo (Ginkgo biloba L.) is not only considered a ‘living fossil’, but also has important ecological, economic, and medicinal values. However, the impact of climate change on the performance and distribution of this plant is an increasing concern. In this study, we developed a bioclimatic model based on data about the occurrence of ginkgo from 277 locations, and validated model predictions using a wide-ranging field test (12 test sites, located at the areas from 22.49° N to 39.32° N, and 81.11° E to 123.53° E). We found that the degree-days below zero were the most important climate variable determining ginkgo distribution. Based on the model predictions, we classified the habitat suitability for ginkgo into four categories (high, medium, low, and unsuitable), accounting for 9.29%, 6.09%, 8.46%, and 76.16% of China’s land area, respectively. The ANOVA results of the validation test showed significant differences in observed leaf-traits among the four habitat types (p < 0.05), and importantly the rankings of the leaf traits were consistent with our classification of the habitat suitability, suggesting the effectiveness of our classification in terms of biological and economic significance. In addition, we projected that suitable (high and medium) habitats for ginkgo would shrink and shift northward under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios for three future periods (the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). However, the area of low-suitable habitat would increase, resulting in a slight decrease in unsuitable habitats. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of climate change impact on this plant and provide a scientific basis for developing adaptive strategies for future climate.

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