scholarly journals Climate change adaptation cost and residual damage to global crop production

2020 ◽  
Vol 80 (3) ◽  
pp. 203-218
Author(s):  
T Iizumi ◽  
Z Shen ◽  
J Furuya ◽  
T Koizumi ◽  
G Furuhashi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Cost Models ◽  
Global Cost ◽  
Adaptation Cost ◽  
Residual Damage ◽  
Adaptation Costs

Adaptation will be essential in many sectors, including agriculture, as a certain level of warming is anticipated even after substantial climate mitigation. However, global adaptation costs and adaptation limits in agriculture are understudied. Here, we estimate the global adaptation cost and residual damage (climate change impacts after adaptation) for maize, rice, wheat and soybean using a global gridded crop model and empirical production cost models. Producers require additional expenditures under climate change to produce the same crop yields that would be achieved without climate change, and this difference is defined as the adaptation cost. On a decadal mean basis, the undiscounted global cost of climate change (adaptation cost plus residual damage) for the crops are projected to increase with warming from 63 US$ billion (B) at 1.5°C to $80 B at 2°C and to $128 B at 3°C per year. The adaptation cost gradually increases in absolute terms, but the share decreases from 84% of the cost of climate change ($53 B) at 1.5°C to 76% ($61 B) at 2°C and to 61% ($8 B) at 3°C. The residual damage increases from 16% ($10 B) at 1.5°C to 24% ($19 B) at 2°C and to 39% ($50 B) at 3°C. Once maintaining yields becomes difficult due to the biological limits of crops or decreased profitability, producers can no longer bear adaptation costs, and residual damages increase. Our estimates offer a basis to identify the gap between global adaptation needs and the funds available for adaptation.

scholarly journals Trading-off tolerable risk with climate change adaptation costs in water supply systems

2016 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 622-643 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edoardo Borgomeo ◽  
Mohammad Mortazavi-Naeini ◽  
Jim W. Hall ◽  
Michael J. O'Sullivan ◽  
Tim Watson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Water Supply Systems ◽  
Tolerable Risk ◽  
Supply Systems ◽  
Adaptation Costs

scholarly journals Smallholder farmers’ climate change adaptation practices contribute to crop production efficiency in Southern Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dessalegn Anshiso Sedebo ◽  
Gu‐Cheng Li ◽  
Kidane Assefa Abebe ◽  
Bekele Gebisa Etea ◽  
John Kojo Ahiapka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Production Efficiency ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Southern Ethiopia ◽  
Adaptation Practices

Future global crop production increases by adapting crop phenology to local climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Minoli ◽  
Jonas Jägermeyr ◽  
Senthold Asseng ◽  
Christoph Müller
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Crop Phenology

<p>Broad evidence is pointing at possible adverse impacts of climate change on crop yields. Due to scarce information about farming management practices, most global-scale studies, however, do not consider adaptation strategies.</p><p>Here we integrate models of farmers' decision making with crop biophysical modeling at the global scale to investigate how accounting for adaptation of crop phenology affects projections of future crop productivity under climate change. Farmers in each simulation unit are assumed to adapt crop growing periods by continuously selecting sowing dates and cultivars that match climatic conditions best. We compare counterfactual management scenarios, assuming crop calendars and cultivars to be either the same as in the reference climate – as often assumed in previous climate impact assessments – or adapted to future climate.</p><p>Based on crop model simulations, we find that the implementation of adapted growing periods can substantially increase (+15%) total crop production in 2080-2099 (RCP6.0). In general, summer crops are responsive to both sowing and harvest date adjustments, which result in overall longer growing periods and improved yields, compared to production systems without adaptation of growing periods. Winter wheat presents challenges in adapting to a warming climate and requires region-specific adjustments to pre and post winter conditions. We present a systematic evaluation of how local and climate-scenario specific adaptation strategies can enhance global crop productivity on current cropland. Our findings highlight the importance of further research on the readiness of required crop varieties.</p>

Determining factors for the application of climate change adaptation strategies among farmers in Magwe District, dry zone region of Myanmar

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aung Tun Oo ◽  
Guido Van Huylenbroeck ◽  
Stijn Speelman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
Farming Systems ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Agricultural Crop ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dry Zone ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation Strategies

Purpose Climate change negatively affects agricultural crop production in the dry zone region of Myanmar. This paper aims to examine climate change adaptation strategies of farmers in the dry zone region. Farmers’ choice for adaptation strategies is influenced by many factors such as the practical availability and by socioeconomic conditions of the farmers. They are moreover influenced by the perception about climate change and by the specific problems prevailing in the farming systems. Design/methodology/approach This research is carried out in Magwe district in the dry zone region of Myanmar using a random selection of 212 farmers from three Townships (Magwe, Yenanchaung and Chauk). A multinomial logistic regression (MLR) was applied to assess the factors affecting the choice by farmers for adaptation strategies. Findings The study found that in the past, farmers used to apply locally available indigenous climate change adaptation strategies. However, recently, most farmers seem to have shifted to introduced adaptation strategies. The most popular adaptation strategy is to adjust the planting dates and sowing method (56.1 per cent). Furthermore, farmers identified a number of barriers that limit the adoption of adaptation methods. Risk is found to be an important driver of crop diversification. Finally, the MLR model showed that information from radio, access to seeds and extension services affect the choice of adaptation strategies. Originality/value The study shows that adoption of locally available indigenous climate change adaptation methods is gradually decreasing, and there is a shift to introduced adaptation strategies. The study can assist public and private organizations to obtain insight in the determinants of climate change adaptation in the dry zone region of Myanmar.

Accounting for adaptation in assessing impact of climatic variations on crop yields: an empirical study of Arizona

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 224-239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haoying Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Climatic Variation ◽  
Fertilizer Use ◽  
Climatic Variations ◽  
Input Use ◽  
Effects Of Temperature

The goal of this paper is to analyze the impacts of climatic variation around current normals on crop yields and explore corresponding adaptation effects in Arizona, using a unique panel data. The empirical results suggest that both fertilizer use and irrigation are important adaptations to climate change in crop production. Fertilizer use has a positive impact on crop yields as expected. When accounting for irrigation and its interaction with temperature, a moderate temperature increase tends to be beneficial to both cotton and hay yields. The empirical model in this paper features with two methodological innovations, identifying the effects of temperature change conditional on adaptations and incorporating potential spatial spillover effects among input use.

scholarly journals Trends of weather-related impacts on Austrian crop production under changing climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabina Thaler ◽  
Josef Eitzinger ◽  
Gerhard Kubu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Crop Growth ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Crop Water

<p>Weather-related risks can affect crop growth and yield potentials directly (e.g. heat, frost, drought) and indirectly (e.g. through biotic factors such as pests). Due to climate change, severe shifts of cropping risks may occur, where farmers need to adapt effectively and in time to increase the resilience of existing cropping systems. For example, since the early 21st century, Europe has experienced a series of exceptionally dry and warmer than usual weather conditions (2003, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2018) which led to severe droughts with devastating impacts in agriculture on crop yields and pasture productivity.</p><p>Austria has experienced above-average warming in the period since 1880. While the global average surface temperature has increased by almost 1°C, the warming in Austria during this period was nearly 2°C. Higher temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and more severe and frequent extreme weather events will significantly affect weather-sensitive sectors, especially agriculture. Therefore, the development of sound adaptation and mitigation strategies towards a "climate-intelligent agriculture" is crucial to improve the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change and increased climate variability. Within the project AGROFORECAST a set of weather-related risk indicators and tailored recommendations for optimizing crop management options are developed and tested for various forecast or prediction lead times (short term management: 10 days - 6 months; long term strategic planning: climate scenarios) to better inform farmers of upcoming weather and climate challenges.</p><p>Here we present trends of various types of long-term weather-related impacts on Austrian crop production under past (1980-2020) and future periods (2035-2065). For that purpose, agro-climatic risk indicators and crop production indicators are determined in selected case study regions with the help of models. We use for the past period Austrian gridded weather data set (INCA) as well as different regionalized climate scenarios of the Austrian Climate Change Projections ÖKS15. The calculation of the agro-climatic indicators is carried out by the existing AGRICLIM model and the GIS-based ARIS software, which was developed for estimating the impact of adverse weather conditions on crops. The crop growth model AQUACROP is used for analysing soil-crop water balance parameters, crop yields and future crop water demand.</p><p>Depending on the climatic region, a more or less clear shift in the various agro-climatic indices can be expected towards 2050, e.g. the number of "heat-stress-days" for winter wheat increases significantly in eastern Austria. Furthermore, a decreasing trend in maize yield is simulated, whereas a mean increase in yield of spring barley and winter wheat can be expected under selected scenarios. Other agro-climatic risk indicators analysed include pest algorithms, risks from frost occurrence, overwintering conditions, climatic crop growing conditions, field workability and others, which can add additional impacts on crop yield variability, not considered by crop models.</p>

scholarly journals Effect of Institutional and Farmer Based Climate Change Adaptation Measures on Crop Production in Mavuria Ward, Mbeere South Sub-county, Embu County, Kenya

2020 ◽  
pp. 171-182
Author(s):  
Samuel K. Nyaga ◽  
Geofrey K. Gathungu ◽  
Justin Nyaga ◽  
Jafford R. Njeru
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Fertility ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Adaptation Mechanisms

Africa is under pressure from climate stresses and is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In Kenya, agriculture is the backbone of the economy making it an important contributor to food security of rural households. Currently crop productivity is being affected by continued climate variations and decline in soil fertility. Adaptation to climate change requires to be given high and urgent priority for sustainable crop production. A study was conducted in Mavuria ward, Mbeere South Sub-County, Embu County to evaluate the effects of climate change adaptation on crop production. The study used both descriptive and experimental research designs. The primary data on adaptation measures was collected from farmers and institutions using questionnaires. In the data analysis, descriptive statistics were used to organize the climate data and that of the respondents into frequencies. Further, a Pearson correlation test was done to determine the relationship between farmer and institutional based mechanisms on adaptation to climate change at α=0.05. The main adaptation mechanisms identified were soil fertility improvement, soil and water conservation, early planting, pest and disease control, provision of certified seeds, and awareness creation. In view of these findings, the study recommends continuous implementation of these measures that can help strengthen farmers and institutional adaptation mechanisms towards climate change for improved crop production.

scholarly journals The global burden of plant disease tracks crop yields under climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas M. Chaloner ◽  
Sarah J. Gurr ◽  
Daniel P. Bebber
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Plant Pathogens ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Crop Protection ◽  
Global Food Security ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Productivity Gains

AbstractGlobal food security is strongly determined by crop production. Climate change will not only affect crop yields directly, but also indirectly via the distributions and impacts of plant pathogens that can cause devastating production losses. However, the likely changes in pathogen pressure in relation to global crop production are poorly understood. Here we show that disease risk for 79 fungal and oomycete crop pathogens will closely track projected yield changes in 12 major crops over the 21st Century. For most crops, yields are likely to increase at high latitudes but disease risk will also grow. In addition, the USA, Europe and China will experience major changes in pathogen assemblages. In contrast, while the tropics will see little or no productivity gains, the disease burden is also likely to decline. The benefits of yield gains will therefore be tempered by the increased burden of crop protection.

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