scholarly journals Response of dune activity on the Tibetan Plateau to near future climate change

2016 ◽  
Vol 69 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
B Liu ◽  
J Qu ◽  
S Kang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Dune Activity

scholarly journals ICDP workshop on scientific drilling of Nam Co on the Tibetan Plateau: 1 million years of paleoenvironmental history, geomicrobiology, tectonics and paleomagnetism derived from sediments of a high-altitude lake

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 63-70
Author(s):  
Torsten Haberzettl ◽  
Gerhard Daut ◽  
Nora Schulze ◽  
Volkhard Spiess ◽  
Junbo Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Deep Biosphere ◽  
Nam Co ◽  
Societal Relevance

Abstract. The Tibetan Plateau is of peculiar societal relevance as it provides freshwater from the so-called “Water Tower of Asia” to a large portion of the Asian population. However, future climate change will affect the hydrological cycle in this area. To define parameters for future climate change scenarios it is necessary to improve the knowledge about thresholds, timing, pace and intensity of past climatic changes and associated environmental impacts. Sedimentary archives reaching far back in time and spanning several glacial–interglacial cycles such as Nam Co provide the unique possibility to extract such information. In order to explore the scientific opportunities that an ICDP drilling effort at Nam Co would provide, 40 scientists from 13 countries representing various scientific disciplines met in Beijing from 22 to 24 May 2018. Besides paleoclimatic investigations, opportunities for paleomagnetic, deep biosphere, tectonic and paleobiological studies were discussed. After having explored the technical and logistical challenges and the scientific opportunities all participants agreed on the great value and need to drill this extraordinary archive, which has a sediment thickness of more than 1 km, likely covering more than 1 Ma.

scholarly journals Protecting endemic seed plants on the Tibetan Plateau under future climate change: migration matters

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 962-971 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yujing Yan ◽  
Zhiyao Tang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Seed Plants ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Current Conservation ◽  
Projected Range ◽  
Significant Difference

Abstract Aims Climate change in the near future may become a major threat to high-altitude endemics by greatly altering their distribution. Our aims are to (i) assess the potential impacts of future climate change on the diversity and distribution of seed plants endemic to the Tibetan Plateau and (ii) evaluate the conservation effectiveness of the current National Nature Reserves (NNRs) in protecting the endemic plants in the face of climate change. Methods We projected range shifts of 993 endemic species to the years 2050 and 2070 under two representative concentration pathway scenarios using an ensemble species distribution modeling framework and evaluated range loss, species-richness change and coverage of the current conservation network considering two dispersal scenarios. Important Findings In a full-dispersal scenario, 72–81% of the species would expand their distribution by 2070, but 6–20% of the species would experience >30% range loss. Most species would shift to the west. The projected species net richness would increase across the region on average. In a no-dispersal scenario, 15–59% of the species would lose >30% of their current habitat by 2070. Severe species loss may occur in the southeastern and the eastern peripheral plateau. Seventeen percent of species ranges are covered by the NNRs on average and may increase in the future if species disperse freely. We found a significant difference of species redistribution patterns between different dispersal scenarios and highlighted the importance of migration in this region.

Recent and near future climate change in the Antarctic Peninsula

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deniz Bozkurt ◽  
David H. Bromwich ◽  
Roberto Rondanelli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Domain Configuration ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Near Future

<p>This study assesses the recent (1990-2015) and near future (2020-2045) climate change in the Antarctic Peninsula. For the recent period, we make the use of available observations, ECMWF’s ERA5 and its predecessor ERA-Interim, as well as regional climate model simulations. Given the different climate characteristics at each side of the mountain barrier, we principally assess the results considering the windward and leeward sides. We use hindcast simulations performed with Polar-WRF over the Antarctic Peninsula on a nested domain configuration at 45 km (PWRF-45) and 15 km (PWRF-15) spatial resolutions for the period 1990-2015. In addition, we include hindcast simulations of KNMI-RACMO21P obtained from the CORDEX-Antarctica domain (~ 50 km) for further comparisons. For the near future climate change evaluation, we principally use historical simulations and climate change projections (until 2050s, RCP85) performed with PWRF (forced with NCAR-CESM1) on the same domain configuration of the hindcast simulations. Recent observed trends show contrasts between summer and autumn. Annual warming (cooling) trend is notable on the windward (leeward) coasts of the peninsula. Unlike the reanalysis, numerical simulations indicate a clear pattern of windward warming and leeward cooling at annual time-scale. These temperature changes are accompanied by a decreasing and increasing trend in sea ice on the windward and leeward coasts, respectively. An increasing trend of precipitation is notable on the central and northern peninsula. High resolution climate change projections (PWRF-15, RCP85) indicate that the recent warming trend on the windward coasts tends to continue in the near future (2020-2045) and the projections exhibit an increase in temperature by ~ 1.5°C and 0.5°C on the windward and leeward coasts, respectively. In the same period, the projections show an increase in precipitation over the peninsula (5% to 10%). The more notable warming projected on the windward side causes more increases in surface melting (~ +20% to +80%) and more sea ice loss (-4% to -20%) on this side. Results show that the windward coasts of central and northern Antarctic Peninsula can be considered as "hotspots" with notable increases in temperature, surface melting and sea ice loss.</p>

scholarly journals Simulating Wheat Production Potential Under Near-future Climate Change in Arid Regions of Northeast Iran

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyed Farhad Saberali ◽  
Zahra Shirmohammadi-Aliakbarkhani ◽  
Hossein Nastari Nasrabadi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Arid Regions ◽  
Growth Period ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Wheat Production ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Northeast Iran

Abstract Water scarcity is the key challenge in arid regions, which exacerbates under climate change (CC) and must be considered to assess the impacts of CC on cropping systems. A climate-crop modelling approach was employed by using the CSM-CERES-Wheat model in some arid regions of northeast Iran to project the effects of CC on irrigated wheat production. Current climate data for 1990-2019 and climate projections of three climate models for 2021–2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were used to run the crop model. Two irrigation scenarios with different irrigation efficiencies were also simulated to investigate the impacts of water scarcity associated with changing climate and irrigation management on wheat productivity. Results indicated that mean temperature is projected to increase at the rates of 1.74–2.73 °C during the reproductive growth period of winter wheat over the study areas. The precipitation projections also indicated that the precipitation rates would decrease over most of the wheat-growing period. The length of the vegetative growth period will extend in some regions and shorten in others under the near future climate. However, the grain filling duration will reduce by about 2–4 days across all regions. The mean seasonal PET is expected to decrease by about 11 mm from 2021 to 2050 over the study areas. A mean overall reduction in winter wheat yield due to future climate conditions would be about 12.3 % across the study areas. However, an increase of 15-30% in the irrigation efficiency will be able to offset yield reductions associated with limited water supply under future climate scenarios. The results suggest that CC will exacerbate limited irrigation water availability, so implementing high-efficiency irrigation systems should be a priority to adapt to climate change in an arid cropping system.

Projected climate change impacts on tropical life zones in Costa Rica

2021 ◽  
pp. 030913332110470
Author(s):  
Christian Birkel ◽  
Joni Dehaspe ◽  
Andrés Chavarría-Palma ◽  
Nelson Venegas-Cordero ◽  
Rene Capell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Costa Rica ◽  
Costa Rican ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Biological Corridors ◽  
Ecosystem Indicators ◽  
Near Future

Efforts to protect tropical ecosystems aim at implementing biological corridors across the national territory of Costa Rica. However, potential near-future climate change challenges the effectiveness of such conservation measures. For this purpose, we developed near-future climate change scenarios at high spatial resolution using open-access global data from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS). These projections resulted from downscaling (to a 1km2 national grid) and quantile-mapping bias-correction of the Essential Climate Variables Global Circulation Model (ECV_GCM) ensemble mean from the CDS using a moderate Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). Projections were evaluated with limited local station data and applied to generate future ecosystem indicators (Holdridge Life Zones, HLZs). We show significantly increasing temperatures of 2.6°C with a spatial variability of ± 0.4°C for Costa Rica until 2040 with local differences (higher temperatures projected for the southern Costa Rican Caribbean). The future mean annual precipitation showed slightly wetter conditions (120 ± 43 mm/year) and most prominently in the Costa Rican Caribbean and south Pacific, but no significant drying in the north of Costa Rica by 2040. The bias-corrected climate data were aggregated to decadal and 30-year average (1971–2040) life zone ecosystem indicators that could potentially show ecosystem shifts. Changes in the life zones are most likely due to warmer temperatures and to a lesser extent caused by projected wetter conditions. Shifts are more likely to occur at higher elevations with a potential loss of the sub-tropical rainforest ecosystem. The projections support diminishing tropical dry forests and slightly increasing tropical rain and wet forests in the biological corridors of the driest and wettest regions, respectively. A countrywide spatial uniformity of dominating tropical moist forests (increase from 24% to 49%) at the expense of other HLZs was projected by 2040.

Downscaled Climate Change Projections for Wa District in the Savanna Zone of Ghana

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 422-431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Tachie-Obeng ◽  
◽  
Bruce Hewitson ◽  
Edwin Akonno Gyasi ◽  
Mark Kofi Abekoe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Savanna Zone

The possibility of future climate change in Ghana has received much attention due to repeated droughts and floods over the last decades. The savanna zone which is described as the food basket of Ghana is highly susceptible to climate change impact. Scenarios from 20-year time slices of the near future – 2046-2065 – and the far future – 2081-2100 – climate change meant to help guide policy remain a challenge. Empirical downscaling performed at the local-scale of Wa District in the savanna zone of Ghana under the IPCC A2 SRES emissions scenario showed evidence of probable climate change with mean annual temperatures expected to increase over an estimated range of 1.5°C to 2.3°C in the near future, with number of cool nights becoming less frequent, especially during the Harmattan1 period. The dry season is expected to be warmer than the wet season, with high inter-annual variations projected in both maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures. Given an average of 1 day of Tmax > 40°C per month in the control period of 1961-2000, the number of hot days is expected to increase to 12 by 2046-2065. An increase in total rainfall is projected with possible shifts in distribution toward the end of the year, with a slight increase in rainfall during the dry season and an increase of rainfall at the onset and toward the end of the wet season. However, a decrease in June rainfall is projected in the wet season. The objective of this paper is to improve the understanding of future climate as a guide to local level medium-term development plans of effective adaptation options for Wa district in the savanna zone of Ghana.

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