Hydrological projections of future climate change over the source region of Yellow River and Yangtze River in the Tibetan Plateau: A comprehensive assessment by coupling RegCM4 and VIC model

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (13) ◽  
pp. 2096-2117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenjun Lu ◽  
Weiguang Wang ◽  
Quanxi Shao ◽  
Zhongbo Yu ◽  
Zhenchun Hao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Comprehensive Assessment ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Vic Model

scholarly journals Evaluation of hydrological response under future climate change by revising meteorological data in the source region of the Yangtze River, China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaohong Chen ◽  
Haoyu Jin ◽  
Pan Wu ◽  
Wenjun Xia ◽  
Ruida Zhong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Response ◽  
The Yangtze River ◽  
Data Correction

Abstract The source region of the Yangtze River (SRYR) is located in the hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The natural environment is hash, and the hydrological and meteorological stations are less distributed, making the observed data are relatively scarce. In order to overcome the impact of lack of data, the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD) was used to correct the meteorological data, to make the data more closer to the real distribution on the SRYR surface. This paper used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to verify interpolation effect. Since the SRYR is an important water resource protection area, have a great significance to study the hydrological response under future climate change. The Back Propagation (BP) neural network algorithm was used to integrate data extracted from the six Global Climate Models (GCMs), and then the SWAT model was used to predict runoff changes in the future status. The results show that the CMFD data set has a high precision in the SRYR, and can be used for meteorological data correction. After the meteorological data correction, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency increased from 0.64 to 0.70. Under the future climate change, the runoff in the SRYR shows a decreasing trend, and the distribution of runoff during the year changes greatly. This reflects the amount of water resources in the SRYR will be decreased, which will brings challenges to water resources management in the SRYR.

scholarly journals ICDP workshop on scientific drilling of Nam Co on the Tibetan Plateau: 1 million years of paleoenvironmental history, geomicrobiology, tectonics and paleomagnetism derived from sediments of a high-altitude lake

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 63-70
Author(s):  
Torsten Haberzettl ◽  
Gerhard Daut ◽  
Nora Schulze ◽  
Volkhard Spiess ◽  
Junbo Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Deep Biosphere ◽  
Nam Co ◽  
Societal Relevance

Abstract. The Tibetan Plateau is of peculiar societal relevance as it provides freshwater from the so-called “Water Tower of Asia” to a large portion of the Asian population. However, future climate change will affect the hydrological cycle in this area. To define parameters for future climate change scenarios it is necessary to improve the knowledge about thresholds, timing, pace and intensity of past climatic changes and associated environmental impacts. Sedimentary archives reaching far back in time and spanning several glacial–interglacial cycles such as Nam Co provide the unique possibility to extract such information. In order to explore the scientific opportunities that an ICDP drilling effort at Nam Co would provide, 40 scientists from 13 countries representing various scientific disciplines met in Beijing from 22 to 24 May 2018. Besides paleoclimatic investigations, opportunities for paleomagnetic, deep biosphere, tectonic and paleobiological studies were discussed. After having explored the technical and logistical challenges and the scientific opportunities all participants agreed on the great value and need to drill this extraordinary archive, which has a sediment thickness of more than 1 km, likely covering more than 1 Ma.

Climate Change of Tibetan Plateau and its Impact on Water Resources of the Source Region of Yangtze River and Yellow River in the next 30~50 Years

2010 ◽  
Vol 171-172 ◽  
pp. 547-550
Author(s):  
Zhi Gang Cheng ◽  
Guang Zhou Fan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Average Annual Runoff ◽  
The Future

Based on high resolution dynamic downscaling meteorological forcing data, climate change of Tibetan Plateau and possible trends in runoff of the source region of Yangtze River and Yellow River were analyzed by using large-scale distributed hydrology model under future climate warming. The average annual runoff of the source region of Yangtze River and Yellow River will increase by 8.58% and 9.19% in the future 30 to 50 years. Although the annual precipitation will increase up to 4.48%, the average annual runoff of the source of Yellow River will reduce only by 1.98% in the next 30 to 50 years. The variations of runoff in the source area of Yangtze River and Yellow River are analyzed by using the climate data projected for the future 30 to 50 years and the scenario simulations of the land use/cover change. These results indicate that the runoff is the minimum (maximum) at forest land (bare land).

scholarly journals Protecting endemic seed plants on the Tibetan Plateau under future climate change: migration matters

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 962-971 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yujing Yan ◽  
Zhiyao Tang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Seed Plants ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Current Conservation ◽  
Projected Range ◽  
Significant Difference

Abstract Aims Climate change in the near future may become a major threat to high-altitude endemics by greatly altering their distribution. Our aims are to (i) assess the potential impacts of future climate change on the diversity and distribution of seed plants endemic to the Tibetan Plateau and (ii) evaluate the conservation effectiveness of the current National Nature Reserves (NNRs) in protecting the endemic plants in the face of climate change. Methods We projected range shifts of 993 endemic species to the years 2050 and 2070 under two representative concentration pathway scenarios using an ensemble species distribution modeling framework and evaluated range loss, species-richness change and coverage of the current conservation network considering two dispersal scenarios. Important Findings In a full-dispersal scenario, 72–81% of the species would expand their distribution by 2070, but 6–20% of the species would experience >30% range loss. Most species would shift to the west. The projected species net richness would increase across the region on average. In a no-dispersal scenario, 15–59% of the species would lose >30% of their current habitat by 2070. Severe species loss may occur in the southeastern and the eastern peripheral plateau. Seventeen percent of species ranges are covered by the NNRs on average and may increase in the future if species disperse freely. We found a significant difference of species redistribution patterns between different dispersal scenarios and highlighted the importance of migration in this region.

scholarly journals Evaluating the streamflow simulation capability of PERSIANN-CDR daily rainfall products in two river basins on the Tibetan Plateau

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaomang Liu ◽  
Tiantian Yang ◽  
Koulin Hsu ◽  
Changming Liu ◽  
Soroosh Sorooshian
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Yangtze River Basin ◽  
Information Source ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Streamflow Simulation

Abstract. On the Tibetan Plateau, the limited ground-based rainfall information owing to a harsh environment has brought great challenges to hydrological studies. Satellite-based rainfall products, which allow a better coverage than both radar network and rain gauges on the Tibetan Plateau, can be suitable observation alternatives for investigating the hydrological processes and climate change. In this study, a newly developed daily satellite-based precipitation product, termed Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks–Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), is used as input of a hydrologic model to simulate streamflow in the upper Yellow and Yangtze River Basin on the Tibetan Plateau. The results show that the simulated streamflow using PERSIANN-CDR precipitation is closer to observation than that using limited gauge-based precipitation interpolation in the upper Yangtze River Basin. The simulated streamflow using gauge-based precipitation are higher than the streamflow observation during the wet season. In the upper Yellow River Basin, PERSIANN-CDR precipitation and gauge-based precipitation have similar good performance in simulating streamflow. The evaluation of streamflow simulation capability in this study partly indicates that PERSIANN-CDR rainfall product has good potentials to be a reliable dataset and an alternative information source besides the sparse gauge network for conducting long term hydrological and climate studies on the Tibetan Plateau.

scholarly journals Projected Effects of Climate Change on Future Hydrological Regimes in the Upper Yangtze River Basin, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqian Wang ◽  
Xiaoli Yang ◽  
Mengru Zhang ◽  
Linqi Zhang ◽  
Xiaohan Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Yangtze River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Upper Yangtze River ◽  
The Upper Yangtze River ◽  
Hydrological Regimes

Climate change directly impacts the hydrological cycle via increasing temperatures and seasonal precipitation shifts, which are variable at local scales. The water resources of the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) account for almost 40% and 15% of all water resources used in the Yangtze Basin and China, respectively. Future climate change and the possible responses of surface runoff in this region are urgent issues for China’s water security and sustainable socioeconomic development. This study evaluated the potential impacts of future climate change on the hydrological regimes (high flow (Q5), low flow (Q95), and mean annual runoff (MAR)) of the UYRB using global climate models (GCMs) and a variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. We used the eight bias-corrected GCM outputs from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to examine the effects of climate change under two future representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The direct variance method was adopted to analyze the contributions of precipitation and temperature to future Q5, Q95, and MAR. The results showed that the equidistant cumulative distribution function (EDCDF) can considerably reduce biases in the temperature and precipitation fields of CMIP5 models and that the EDCDF captured the extreme values and spatial pattern of the climate fields. Relative to the baseline period (1961–1990), precipitation is projected to slightly increase in the future, while temperature is projected to considerably increase. Furthermore, Q5, Q95, and MAR are projected to decrease. The projected decreases in the median value of Q95 were 21.08% to 24.88% and 16.05% to 26.70% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively; these decreases were larger than those of MAR and Q5. Temperature increases accounted for more than 99% of the projected changes, whereas precipitation had limited projected effects on Q95 and MAR. These results indicate the drought risk over the UYRB will increase considerably in the future.

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