scholarly journals Regional climate projection over South Korea simulated by the HadGEM2-AO and WRF model chain under RCP emission scenarios

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 249-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
ES Im ◽  
JB Ahn ◽  
SR Jo
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Climate Projection ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Regional Climate Projection ◽  
Model Chain

Reviewing our options: How can we address climate change impacts in hydrogeological studies?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steffen Birk ◽  
Raoul Collenteur
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Hydrogeology Journal ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Model Chain

<p>Arguably, the groundwater community has responded more slowly to the challenges posed by climate change than other fields of (hydrological) science. However, in recent years a strong increase in studies addressing climate change impacts on groundwater is observed, and recommendations on the methodology of such studies have been developed and discussed (e.g. Holman et al., Hydrogeology Journal, 2012). Following the common practice in other fields of climate change research, it was suggested that assessments of climate change impacts on groundwater should be based on multiple emission scenarios and a range of global and regional climate models. This scenario-based, top-down approach involves the propagation of multi-model ensembles through a model chain starting from emission scenarios to global and regional climate models to impact models such as hydrological and groundwater models. However, as the uncertainty increases at each step of the model chain, the uncertainty in the assessment of local climate change impacts and the resulting recommendations for adaptation options likely are very high and thus of little use in practice. A vulnerability-based, bottom-up approach starting from the identification and analysis of the factors that are relevant for coping with climate change in a given system, therefore, was proposed as a complementary approach (e.g. Wilby and Dessai, Weather, 2010). “Storylines” (Shephard et al., Climatic Change, 2018) that aim at representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change in an event-based rather than probabilistic way appear to be consistent with the latter concept. In this poster we relate these concepts of climate change research to methodological frameworks established in hydrogeological research (e.g. multi-model approaches). We present an overview of potential tools, such as trading-space-for-time, historical data analysis, sensitivity analysis, climate projections and controlled experiments, that can be used to study climate change impacts, and we discuss their role and applicability within more general methodological frameworks.</p>

scholarly journals A case study of possible future summer convective precipitation over the UK and Europe from a regional climate projection

2017 ◽  
Vol 38 (5) ◽  
pp. 2314-2324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan M. Gadian ◽  
Alan M. Blyth ◽  
Cindy L. Bruyere ◽  
Ralph R. Burton ◽  
James M. Done ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Projection ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Regional Climate Projection ◽  
The Uk

A Pragmatic Approach to Build a Reduced Regional Climate Projection Ensemble for Germany Using the EURO-CORDEX 8.5 Ensemble

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 477-491 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Dalelane ◽  
B. Früh ◽  
C. Steger ◽  
A. Walter
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Reduction Technique ◽  
Climate Projection ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Tuning Parameters ◽  
Regional Climate Projection ◽  
Regional Downscaling

AbstractThe application of an ensemble reduction technique to the European branch of the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble at resolution “EUR-11” (~12.5 km) under the RCP8.5 scenario is presented. The technique is based on monthly mean changes between a reference and two future time periods, calculated for eight regions in Germany, of the parameters near-surface air temperature (tas), precipitation totals (pr), contribution of precipitation from very wet days to precipitation totals (R95pTOT), near-surface specific humidity (huss), and surface downwelling shortwave radiation (rsds). The sensitivity of the reduction procedure with respect to a number of tuning parameters is investigated. When the optimal combination of tuning parameters is applied, the technique allows the reduction from 15 to 7 ensemble members, while the reduced ensemble reproduces about 94% of the spread of the full ensemble. Keeping in mind that climate projection ensembles are expected to grow substantially in the near future, this ensemble reduction technique can be useful to limit the computational efforts necessary for further processing and applications such as impact modeling.

scholarly journals Projected increases in surface melt and ice loss for the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudio Bravo ◽  
Deniz Bozkurt ◽  
Andrew N. Ross ◽  
Duncan J. Quincey
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Surface Melt ◽  
Frontal Ablation

AbstractThe Northern Patagonian Icefield (NPI) and the Southern Patagonian Icefield (SPI) have increased their ice mass loss in recent decades. In view of the impacts of glacier shrinkage in Patagonia, an assessment of the potential future surface mass balance (SMB) of the icefields is critical. We seek to provide this assessment by modelling the SMB between 1976 and 2050 for both icefields, using regional climate model data (RegCM4.6) and a range of emission scenarios. For the NPI, reductions between 1.5 m w.e. (RCP2.6) and 1.9 m w.e. (RCP8.5) were estimated in the mean SMB during the period 2005–2050 compared to the historical period (1976–2005). For the SPI, the estimated reductions were between 1.1 m w.e. (RCP2.6) and 1.5 m w.e. (RCP8.5). Recently frontal ablation estimates suggest that mean SMB in the SPI is positively biased by 1.5 m w.e., probably due to accumulation overestimation. If it is assumed that frontal ablation rates of the recent past will continue, ice loss and sea-level rise contribution will increase. The trend towards lower SMB is mostly explained by an increase in surface melt. Positive ice loss feedbacks linked to increasing in meltwater availability are expected for calving glaciers.

Hydrological evaluation of high-resolution precipitation estimates from the WRF model in the Third Pole river basins

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
He Sun ◽  
Fengge Su ◽  
Zhihua He ◽  
Tinghai Ou ◽  
Deliang Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
Precipitation Estimates

AbstractIn this study, two sets of precipitation estimates based on the regional Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) –the high Asia refined analysis (HAR) and outputs with a 9 km resolution from WRF (WRF-9km) are evaluated at both basin and point scales, and their potential hydrological utilities are investigated by driving the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) large-scale land surface hydrological model in seven Third Pole (TP) basins. The regional climate model (RCM) tends to overestimate the gauge-based estimates by 20–95% in annual means among the selected basins. Relative to the gauge observations, the RCM precipitation estimates can accurately detect daily precipitation events of varying intensities (with absolute bias < 3 mm). The WRF-9km exhibits a high potential for hydrological application in the monsoon-dominated basins in the southeastern TP (with NSE of 0.7–0.9 and bias of -11% to 3%), while the HAR performs well in the upper Indus (UI) and upper Brahmaputra (UB) basins (with NSE of 0.6 and bias of -15% to -9%). Both the RCM precipitation estimates can accurately capture the magnitudes of low and moderate daily streamflow, but show limited capabilities in flood prediction in most of the TP basins. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the strength and limitation of RCMs precipitation in hydrological modeling in the TP with complex terrains and sparse gauge observations.

scholarly journals Regional climate change scenarios for Greece: future temperature and precipitation projections form ensembles of RCMs

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 407-421 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Summer Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Emission ◽  
Spatial Grid ◽  
Of Greece

The potential regional future changes in seasonal (winter and summer) temperature and precipitation are assessed for the greater area of Greece over the 21st century, under A2, A1B and B2 future emission scenarios of IPCC. Totally twenty-two simulations from various regional climate models (RCMs) were assessed; fourteen of them with a spatial grid resolution of 50km for the period 2071-2100 under A2 (9 simulations) and B2 (5 simulations) scenarios and eight of them with an even finer resolution of 25km under A1B scenario for both 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 time periods. The future changes in temperature and precipitation were calculated with respect to the control period (1961-1990). All the models estimated warmer and dryer conditions over the study area. The warming is more intense during the summer months, with the changes being larger in the continental than in the marine area of Greece. In terms of precipitation, the simulations of the RCMs estimate a decrease up to -60% (A2 scenario). Finally it is shown that the changes in the atmospheric circulation over Europe play a key role in the changes of the future precipitation and temperature characteristics over the domain of study in a consistent way for the different emission scenarios.

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