scholarly journals Regional climate change scenarios for Greece: future temperature and precipitation projections form ensembles of RCMs

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 407-421 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Summer Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Emission ◽  
Spatial Grid ◽  
Of Greece

The potential regional future changes in seasonal (winter and summer) temperature and precipitation are assessed for the greater area of Greece over the 21st century, under A2, A1B and B2 future emission scenarios of IPCC. Totally twenty-two simulations from various regional climate models (RCMs) were assessed; fourteen of them with a spatial grid resolution of 50km for the period 2071-2100 under A2 (9 simulations) and B2 (5 simulations) scenarios and eight of them with an even finer resolution of 25km under A1B scenario for both 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 time periods. The future changes in temperature and precipitation were calculated with respect to the control period (1961-1990). All the models estimated warmer and dryer conditions over the study area. The warming is more intense during the summer months, with the changes being larger in the continental than in the marine area of Greece. In terms of precipitation, the simulations of the RCMs estimate a decrease up to -60% (A2 scenario). Finally it is shown that the changes in the atmospheric circulation over Europe play a key role in the changes of the future precipitation and temperature characteristics over the domain of study in a consistent way for the different emission scenarios.

Estimation of the Effects of Regional Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Balance of a Basin in the Middle Magdalena Valley

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio Andres Romero-Duque ◽  
Maria Cristina Arenas-Bautista ◽  
Leonardo David Donado
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

<p>Hydrological cycle dynamics can be simulated through continuous numerical modelling in order to estimate a water budget at different time and spatial scales, taking a specific importance when considering climate change effects on the various processes that take place on a basin. With the purpose of estimating potential impacts of climate change on the basin water balance, the present study takes place on the catchment area of the Carare-Minero river, a basin located in the Middle Magdalena Valley (Colombia), a zone in which important economic activities unfold such as stockbreeding and agriculture, where regional climate change scenarios were made for the precipitation and temperature variables, along with a continuous hydrological modeling of the basin using the HEC-HMS software. The regional scenarios for the precipitation and temperature were developed through statistical downscaling based on General Circulation Models (GCM) of the sixth phase of the Coupled Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), with projections to 2100 for seven of the new set of CO2 emission scenarios, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), that take into account different socioeconomic assumptions for climate policies, with a baseline of 25 years between 1990 and 2014; the emission scenarios evaluated from lowest to highest CO2 emission were SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The obtained data were used as an input for the model of the basin in HEC-HMS obtaining a new water balance for each scenario comparing the results with the baseline case for current conditions, resulting in an evapotranspiration increase due to higher temperatures that, alongside changes in precipitation, produces lower flows for the higher SSP’s of SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0, in contrast with the low emission scenarios of SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 were the changes in temperature and precipitation are less drastic generating minor alterations in the hydrological balance.</p><p>Key words: Hydrological modeling, Middle Magdalena Valley, regional climate change scenarios, water balance.</p>

Future Extreme Climates Projection over Huang-Huai-Hai Region of China

2014 ◽  
Vol 955-959 ◽  
pp. 3887-3892 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huang He Gu ◽  
Zhong Bo Yu ◽  
Ji Gan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Huai River ◽  
The Future

This study projects the future extreme climate changes over Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) region in China using a regional climate model (RegCM4). The RegCM4 performs well in “current” climate (1970-1999) simulations by compared with the available surface station data, focusing on near-surface air temperature and precipitation. Future climate changes are evaluated based on experiments driven by European-Hamburg general climate model (ECHAM5) in A1B future scenario (2070-2099). The results show that the annual temperature increase about 3.4 °C-4.2 °C and the annual precipitation increase about 5-15% in most of 3H region at the end of 21st century. The model predicts a generally less frost days, longer growing season, more hot days, no obvious change in heat wave duration index, larger maximum five-day rainfall, more heavy rain days, and larger daily rainfall intensity. The results indicate a higher risk of floods in the future warmer climate. In addition, the consecutive dry days in Huai River Basin will increase, indicating more serve drought and floods conditions in this region.

Temperature and precipitation projections for Poland based on downscaled EuroCORDEX ensemble

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanna Struzewska ◽  
Maciej Jefimow ◽  
Paulina Jagiełło ◽  
Maria Kłeczek ◽  
Anahita Sattari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

<p>Regional climate projections are necessary to assess possible changes in the exposure and risk to allow planning the adaptation strategies.</p><p>Projections of temperature and precipitation trends were developed using a consistent methodology and homogeneous datasets to address the needs of up-to-date climate change scenarios for Poland.</p><p>The Euro-Cordex results with the resolution of 0.11deg (about 12.5km) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were downscaled based on various historical gridded datasets (EOBS, ERA5, UERRA and data from IMWM).</p><p>Ensemble analysis was undertaken to assess the projection uncertainty and ensemble mean were calculated for base parameters (daily average, minimum, and maximum temperature and daily precipitation sum) as well as for the number of climate indices.</p><p>We will present spatial and temporal variability of selected climate indices over Poland for subsequent decades. Increase of the annual average temperature is due to the rise in the number of hot days and the reduction of the number of frost days. All temperature indices are characterized by statistically significant trends, strongest for RCP8.5. The most pronounced changes in the frequency and amount of precipitation occur in the north-east of Poland. The total number of days with precipitation increases slightly. The increase in the annual rainfall is due to the increase in the number of days with extreme precipitation.</p><p>Results are presented via an interactive web portal. Further analysis includes the development of projection for solar radiation, wind speed, humidity and snow cover.</p>

scholarly journals The new national climate change documents of Mexico: what do the regional climate change scenarios represent?

2011 ◽  
Vol 110 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1029-1046 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Estrada ◽  
Benjamín Martínez-López ◽  
Cecilia Conde ◽  
Carlos Gay-García
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

scholarly journals Does Nudging Squelch the Extremes in Regional Climate Modeling?

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (20) ◽  
pp. 7046-7066 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanya L. Otte ◽  
Christopher G. Nolte ◽  
Martin J. Otte ◽  
Jared H. Bowden
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Climate Downscaling

Abstract An important question in regional climate downscaling is whether to constrain (nudge) the interior of the limited-area domain toward the larger-scale driving fields. Prior research has demonstrated that interior nudging can increase the skill of regional climate predictions originating from historical data. However, there is concern that nudging may also inhibit the regional model’s ability to properly develop and simulate mesoscale features, which may reduce the value added from downscaling by altering the representation of local climate extremes. Extreme climate events can result in large economic losses and human casualties, and regional climate downscaling is one method for projecting how climate change scenarios will affect extreme events locally. In this study, the effects of interior nudging are explored on the downscaled simulation of temperature and precipitation extremes. Multidecadal, continuous Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations of the contiguous United States are performed using coarse reanalysis fields as proxies for global climate model fields. The results demonstrate that applying interior nudging improves the accuracy of simulated monthly means, variability, and extremes over the multidecadal period. The results in this case indicate that interior nudging does not inappropriately squelch the prediction of temperature and precipitation extremes and is essential for simulating extreme events that are faithful in space and time to the driving large-scale fields.

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