scholarly journals Time Series Modeling of Inflation and its Volatility in Croatia

Notitia ◽  
2018 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Igor Živko ◽  
Mile Bošnjak
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Behavior Pattern ◽  
Time Series Modeling ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The One ◽  
Nominal Anchor ◽  
Family Models

Croatian National Bank is not targeting inflation but exchange rate as the nominal anchor or intermediary goal of monetary policy and inflation in Croatia is a dominantly foreign driven phenomenon. Using monthly data on CPI in Croatia from January 1997 up to November 2015, ARIMA (0,1,1) x (0,1,1)12 model is fitted as the one describing CPI behavior pattern and therefore reliable for CPI forecasting. Furthermore, to establish its volatility pattern several ARCH family models are tested and ARCH (1) model is found to be the best fitted one in explaining CPI volatility development in Croatia.

scholarly journals The Monetary Policy of the National Bank of Romania in The Inflation Targeting Era. A Taylor Rule Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 91-102
Author(s):  
Bogdan Căpraru ◽  
Norel Ionuţ Moise ◽  
Andrei Rădulescu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Inflation Differential ◽  
Rule Approach ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Potential Gdp ◽  
The One

AbstractIn this paper we analyse the monetary policy of the National Bank of Romania during 2005-2015 by estimating the Taylor rule, on a quarterly basis. We determined the potential GDP by employing the Hodrick-Prescott filter, in order to distinguish between the cyclical and the structural components of the output. Then, we estimated the traditional Taylor rule function (with a classic OLS regression), but slightly modified, as to take into account the forward-looking attitude of the NBR. The results confirm the direct correlation between the monetary policy rate and the output gap on the one hand, and the inflation differential (inflation - inflationtarget) on the other hand. Also, the results show us that NBR paid a higher attention to the dynamics of the inflation versus its target than to the output gap. Last, but not least, the central bank has been also sensitive to the financial stability, as reflected by the results of the incorporation of the ROBOR-EURIBOR spread in the classical Taylor rule.

scholarly journals PERANAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER DALAM MENJAGA STABILITAS PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA SEBAGAI RESPON TERHADAP FLUKTUASI PEREKONOMIAN DUNIA

2007 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-177
Author(s):  
M. Maulana Al Arif ◽  
Achmad Tohari
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The World ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes the impact of the inflation and the world interest rate on the Indonesian economy and the effectiveness of the Indonesian central bank policy to adopt the domestic macroeconomic fluctuation.Assuming Indonesia as a small-open economy, the Stuctural Vector Autoregressive Model is utilized on the monthly data during the periode of 1999: 1 – 2004: 12 covering the main domestic macroeconomic indicator (output, price, money supply, interest rate and the exchange rate) and the world oil price and world interest rate as the disturbance source.The analysis provides 2 main results, first, the international variables do have impacts on the domestic variables fluctuation, implying the fragility of the domestic economy due to the external shock, second, the monetary policy is effective on supporting the economic growth and stabilizing the price level. However, the Bank Indonesia policy to stabilize the international shock via the exchange rate channel, contributes to a higher impact of the international shock on domestic interest rate.Keywords: monetary policy, business cycle, SVARJEL Classification: E52, E32, C32, F41

scholarly journals HE IMPACT OF INFLATION, CERTIFICATE OF BANK INDONESIA, AND EXCHANGE RATE OF IDR/USD ON THE INDONESIA COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Margarita Ekadjaja ◽  
Daisy Dianasari
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Research Population ◽  
Stock Price Index

This research is done with the aim to know whether some macroeconomic variables, which are inflation rate, certificate of Bank Indonesia (SBI) rate, and exchange rate of IDR/USD have an impact on the movement of the composite stock price index (IHSG) at the Indonesia stock exchange (BEI) partially and simultaneously in the period of 2006–2014. The research population is inflation rate, SBI rate, and exchange rate of IDR/USD. Data analysis in this research is multiple regression by using time series monthly data of 2006–2014. Research results show that partially inflation rate gives positive significant impact on IHSG, SBI rate has negative significant impact on IHSG, and exchange rate of IDR/USD has positive significant impact on IHSG.  Simultaneously it shows that inflation, SBI rate, and exchange rate of IDR/USD have an impact on IHSG at BEI to the period of year 2006 – 2014.  Those variables affect IHSG by 58,74%, while other variables affect IHSG by 41,26%.  That information can be used by investors to make decision on their investment.Keywords: inflation, SBI, exchange rate, IHSG, BEI.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Analysis in Serbia

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 147-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vesna Martin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Main Regulator

Abstract The paper focuses on analysing monetary policy in Serbia. The National Bank of Serbia chose inflation targeting, which sets price stability as the main objective of monetary policy. To achieve this goal, the central bank uses different monetary policy instruments which analysis can provide us with the understanding of the main directions of their actions but also of the limitations of its application. Only through improvement of both instruments and monetary policy the central bank will create a better foundation for achieving monetary stability. In addition, the implementation of exchange rate policy is entrusted to the National Bank of Serbia, as the main regulator of the financial system. A mere use of managed floating exchange rate, as the chosen exchange rate regime, is an appropriate solution in the current economic circumstances and in accordance with the desired objective of monetary policy.

scholarly journals MONETARY VERSUS FISCAL DOMINANCE IN EMERGING EUROPEAN ECONOMIES

2018 ◽  
pp. 125
Author(s):  
Gordana Jevđović ◽  
Ivan Milenković
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Fiscal Dominance ◽  
The One ◽  
Nominal Anchor ◽  
European Economies ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

The conventional macroeconomic paradigm is that monetary policy provides the nominal anchor for inflation expectations and that fiscal policy is disciplined in implementing credible and timely revenue-expenditure measures when debt rises, in order to ensure sustainability. In this scenario monetary policy is active, whereas fiscal policy is passive, which is referred to as monetary dominance. However, the proponents of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level emphasize that another regime may be possible - the one of fiscal dominance. In this setup, primary balance follows some arbitrary path, not necessary compatible with the evolution of government debt, and monetary policy is faced with limited room for manoeuvre as it has no option but to adjust to fiscal developments. Following these theoretical foundations, the aim of this paper is to empirically ascertain the prevailing policy regime (monetary versus fiscal dominance) in five emerging European economies (Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and Macedonia). In line with expectations, results overwhelmingly suggest that monetary policy may have been subordinated to fiscal policy over the period of analysis in all economies under scrutiny and that fiscally-led regime prevailed.

Does Monetary Policy Regime Affect Inflation?

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 (5) ◽  
pp. 39-51
Author(s):  
Filipp Kartaev
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Public Confidence ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Exchange Rate Targeting ◽  
Nominal Anchor

The article treats long-term impact of monetary policy nominal anchor choice (inflation targeting, exchange rate targeting, money supply targeting) on inflation level in developed and emerging countries. The research was built on panel data for 188 countries, which includes period after the global financial crisis. The results show, that inflation or exchange rate targeting allows to reduce inflation rate in emerging countries, while in developed countries the use of monetary policy nominal anchor does not give additional benefits in inflation control. This difference can be explained by the fact, that nominal anchor implementation in emerging countries enhances public confidence in monetary authority actions to control inflation. Higher confidence decreases inflation expectations and hence inflation. In contrast, central banks of developed countries can stabilize price level without use of nominal anchor due to good reputation.

scholarly journals DOES INFLATION TARGETING WORK IN EMERGING COUNTRIES? AN EXAMPLE OF GEORGIA

2020 ◽  
pp. 170-179
Author(s):  
SOPHIO TKESHELASHVILI ◽  
GIVI LEMONJAVA
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Transmission Mechanisms ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Interest Rate

Monetary policy is the macroeconomic policy that allows central banks to influence the economy. It involves managing the money supply and interest rates to address macroeconomic challenges such as inflation, consumption, growth and liquidity. Historically, for a long time, the task of monetary policy was limited to controlling the exchange rate, which in turn was fixed (at the beginning of the 20th century on the gold standard) for the purposes of promoting international trade. Eventually such a policy contributed to the Great Depression of the 1930s. After the depression, governments prioritized employment. The central banks have changed their direction based on the relationship between unemployment and inflation, known as the Phillips curve. They believed in the link between unemployment and inflation stability, which is why they decided to use monetary policy (putting money into the economy) to increase total demand and maintain low unemployment. However, this was a misguided decision that led to stagflation in the 1970s and the addition of an oil embargo in 1973. Inflation rose from 5.5% to 12.2% in 1970-1979 and peaked in 1979 at 13.3%. Over the past few decades, central banks have developed a new management technique called «inflation targeting» to control the growth of the overall price index. As part of this practice, central banks are publicizing targeted inflation rate and then, through monetary policy instruments, mainly by changing monetary policy interest rates, trying to bring factual inflation closer to the target. Given that the interest rate and the inflation rate are moving in opposite directions, the measures that the central bank should take by increasing or decreasing the interest rate are becoming more obvious and transparent. One of the biggest advantages of the inflation targeting regime is its transparency and ease of communication with the public, as the pre-determined targets allows the National Bank›s main goal to be precisely defined and form expectations on of monetary policy decisions. Since 2009, the monetary policy of the National Bank of Georgia has been inflation targeting. The inflation target is determined by the National Bank of Georgia and further approved by the Parliament. Since, 2018- 3% is medium term inflation target of National Bank of Georgia. The inflation targeting regime also has its challenges, the bigger these challenges are in developing countries. There are studies that prove that in some emerging countries, the inflation targeting regime does not work and other monetary policy regimes are more efficient. It should be noted that there are several studies on monetary policy and transmission mechanisms in Georgia. Researches made so far around the topic are based on early period data. Monetary policy in the current form with inflation targeting regime started in 2009 and in 2010 monetary policy instruments (refinancing loans, instruments) were introduced accordingly, there are no studies which cover in full the monetary policy rate, monetary policy instruments and their practical usage, path through effect on inflation and economy. It was important to analyze the current monetary policy, its effectiveness, to determine the impact of transmission mechanisms on the small open economy and business development. The study, conducted on 8 variables using VAR model, identified both significant and weak correlations of the variables outside and within the politics like GDP, inflation, refinancing rate, M3, exchange rate USD/GEL, exchange rate USD/TR and dummy factor, allowing to conclude, that through monetary policy channels and through the tools of the National Bank of Georgia, it is possible to have both direct and indirect (through inflation control) effects on both, economic development and price stability

Exchange Rate Policies and Economic Development

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Levy Yeyati
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Bretton Woods ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Dollarization ◽  
Nominal Anchor ◽  
Floating Exchange Rates

While traditional economic literature often sees nominal variables as irrelevant for the real economy, there is a vast body of analytical and empirical economic work that recognizes that, to the extent they exert a critical influence on the macroeconomic environment through a multiplicity of channels, exchange rate policies (ERP) have important consequences for development. ERP influences economic development in various ways: through its incidence on real variables such as investment and growth (and growth volatility) and on nominal aspects such relative prices or financial depth that, in turn, affect output growth or income distribution, among other development goals. Additionally, ERP, through the expected distribution of the real exchange rate indirectly, influences dimensions such as trade or financial fragility and explains, at least partially, the adoption of the euro—an extreme case of a fixed exchange rate arrangement—or the preference for floating exchange rates in the absence of financial dollarization. Importantly, exchange rate pegs have been (and, in many countries, still are) widely used as a nominal anchor to contain inflation in economies where nominal volatility induces agents to use the exchange rate as an implicit unit of account. All of these channels have been reflected to varying degrees in the choice of exchange rate regimes in recent history. The empirical literature on the consequences of ERP has been plagued by definitional and measurement problems. Whereas few economists would contest the textbook definition of canonical exchange rate regimes (fixed regimes involve a commitment to keep the nominal exchange rate at a given level; floating regimes imply no market intervention by the monetary authorities), reality is more nuanced: Pure floats are hard to find, and the empirical distinction between alternative flexible regimes is not always clear. Moreover, there are many different degrees of exchange rate commitments as well as many alternative anchors, sometimes undisclosed. Finally, it is not unusual that a country that officially declares to peg its currency realigns its parity if it finds the constraints on monetary policy or economic activity too taxing. By the same token, a country that commits to a float may choose to intervene in the foreign exchange market to dampen exchange rate fluctuations. The regime of choice depends critically on the situation of each country at a given point in time as much as on the evolution of the global environment. Because both the ERP debate and real-life choices incorporate national and time-specific aspects that tend to evolve over time, so does the changing focus of the debate. In the post-World War II years, under the Bretton Woods agreement, most countries pegged their currencies to the U.S. dollar, which in turn was kept convertible to gold. In the post-Bretton Woods years, after August 1971 when the United States abandoned unilaterally the convertibility of the dollar, thus bringing the Bretton Woods system to an end, the individual choices of ERP were intimately related to the global and local historical contexts, according to whether policy prioritized the use of the exchange rate as a nominal anchor (in favor of pegged or superfixed exchange rates, with dollarization or the launch of the euro as two extreme examples), as a tool to enhance price competitiveness (as in export-oriented developing countries like China in the 2000s) or as a countercyclical buffer (in favor of floating regimes with limited intervention, the prevalent view in the developed world). Similarly, the declining degree of financial dollarization, combined with the improved quality of monetary institutions, explain the growing popularity of inflation targeting with floating exchange rates in emerging economies. Finally, a prudential leaning-against-the-wind intervention to counter mean reverting global financial cycles and exchange rate swings motivates a more active—and increasingly mainstream—ERP in the late 2000s. The fact that most medium and large developing economies (and virtually all industrial ones) revealed in the 2000s a preference for exchange rate flexibility simply reflects this evolution. Is the combination of inflation targeting (IT) and countercyclical exchange rate intervention a new paradigm? It is still too early to judge. On the one hand, pegs still represent more than half of the IMF reporting countries—particularly, small ones—indicating that exchange rate anchors are still favored by small open economies that give priority to the trade dividend of stable exchange rates and find the conduct of an autonomous monetary policy too costly, due to lack of human capital, scale, or an important non-tradable sector. On the other hand, the work and the empirical evidence on the subject, particularly after the recession of 2008–2009, highlight a number of developments in the way advanced and emerging economies think of the impossible trinity that, in a context of deepening financial integration, casts doubt on the IT paradigm, places the dilemma between nominal and real stability back on the forefront, and postulates an IT 2.0, which includes selective exchange rate interventions as a workable compromise. At any rate, the exchange rate debate is still alive and open.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document