A critical-path focus for earned duration increases its sensitivity for project-duration monitoring and forecasting in deterministic, fuzzy and stochastic network analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 359-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Wood
Keyword(s):  
Network Analysis ◽  
Critical Path ◽  
Stochastic Network ◽  
Project Duration ◽  
Monitoring And Forecasting

scholarly journals Forecasting the Project Duration Average and Standard Deviation from Deterministic Schedule Information

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 654 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Ballesteros-Pérez ◽  
Alberto Cerezo-Narváez ◽  
Manuel Otero-Mateo ◽  
Andrés Pastor-Fernández ◽  
Jingxiao Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Network Analysis ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Project Evaluation ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
Stochastic Network ◽  
Project Duration ◽  
Deterministic Scheduling ◽  
Mathematical Expressions ◽  
Additional Calculation

Most construction managers use deterministic scheduling techniques to plan construction projects and estimate their duration. However, deterministic techniques are known to underestimate the project duration. Alternative methods, such as Stochastic Network Analysis, have rarely been adopted in practical contexts as they are commonly computer-intensive, require extensive historical information, have limited contextual/local validity and/or require skills most practitioners have not been trained for. In this paper, we propose some mathematical expressions to approximate the average and the standard deviation of a project duration from basic deterministic schedule information. The expressions’ performance is successfully tested in a 4100-network dataset with varied activity durations and activity durations variability. Calculations are quite straightforward and can be implemented manually. Furthermore, unlike the Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), they allow drawing inferences about the probability of project duration in the presence of several critical and subcritical paths with minimal additional calculation.

scholarly journals Interval network analysis in project management

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 99-113
Author(s):  
Radhakrishnan S ◽  
Saikeerthana D
Keyword(s):  
Project Management ◽  
Network Analysis ◽  
Fuzzy Numbers ◽  
Critical Path ◽  
Critical Path Method ◽  
Project Duration ◽  
Numerical Examples ◽  
Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers ◽  
Project Network ◽  
Fuzzy Parameters

This paper deals with an analysis of Critical Path Method (CPM) and Programme Evaluation Review Technique (PERT) in Project Network. Here, we solve the PERT and CPM methodology using intervals and we determine the critical path and project duration of the network. We can also convert the fuzzy parameters (triangular and trapezoidal fuzzy numbers) into intervals using α − cuts. After which, we calculate the project duration and critical path. To illustrate this, numerical examples are provided.

scholarly journals A New Approach to Determine the Critical Path in Stochastic Activity Network

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Weng-Ming Chu ◽  
Koan-Yuh Chang ◽  
Chien-Yu Lu ◽  
Chang-Hung Hsu ◽  
Chien-Hung Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
Critical Path ◽  
Stochastic Networks ◽  
Stochastic Network ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Path Index ◽  
Tracing Algorithm ◽  
Selection Of

The determination of the critical path (CP) in stochastic networks is difficult. It is partly due to the randomness of path durations and partly due to the probability issue of the selection of the critical path in the network. What we are confronted with is not only the complexity among random variables but also the problem of path dependence of the network. Besides, we found that CP is not necessarily the longest (or shortest) path in the network, which was a conventional assumption in use. The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and Critical Path Index (CPI) approaches are not able to deal with this problem efficiently. In this study, we give a new definition on the CP in stochastic network and propose a modified label-correcting tracing algorithm (M-LCTA) to solve it. Based on the numerical results, compared with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), the proposed approach can accurately determine the CP in stochastic networks.

Critical Path Network Analysis of a course

1965 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. 456-457
Author(s):  
T.G. WYANT
Keyword(s):  
Network Analysis ◽  
Critical Path

scholarly journals ESTIMATING NORMAL DURATION OF RENOVATION FOR MULTISTORY APARTMENT BUILDING CONSIDERING EXTENSION-TYPE RENOVATION PROJECTS

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 156-167
Author(s):  
Jongsik Yoon ◽  
Ilhan Yu
Keyword(s):  
Critical Path ◽  
Project Control ◽  
Apartment Building ◽  
Project Duration ◽  
Baseline Schedule ◽  
Vertical Extension ◽  
Initial Stage ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Normal Duration

Normal (typical) project duration is estimated at the initial stage of a renovation project and is an important reference for project control. However, its estimation has not been researched extensively owing to the complexity and uncertainties of renovation. Thus, a model was developed for predicting the duration of sustainable apartment renovation. Experts were asked to estimate a baseline schedule for extension-type renovation projects, factors that influence critical path activities, and the range of project durations considering these factors. An equation for estimating the duration of a renovation project was developed, and the range of project durations was derived using a MCS to reflect uncertainty. The proposed model was validated by applying it to actual cases. The case study shows that the model would be more suitable for complex renovation construction (i.e., more than two buildings or vertical extension). The model can be applied to various renovation projects and used as a reference for determining contract time. It can fill the knowledge gap of construction duration forecasting by adapting the concept of control activities to simplify the assessment of uncertainties in renovation of apartments, and can be applied for forecasting sustainable renovation time for other project types or in other locations.

scholarly journals Evaluasi Pelaksanaan Proyek Drainase Dengan Metode CPM Dan PERT

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-52
Author(s):  
Gunaedy Utomo ◽  
Irna Hendriyani ◽  
Siti Nor Aida
Keyword(s):  
Critical Path ◽  
Project Evaluation ◽  
Time Schedule ◽  
Critical Path Method ◽  
Project Duration ◽  
Work Activities ◽  
Weekly Report ◽  
Critical Paths

This research purposes to evaluate the implementation of the drainage project in Jl. Mulawarman, Gg. Arjuna, Sepinggan. This research uses the CPM (Critical Path Method) and the PERT (Project Evaluation and Review Technique). Based on the budget plan, time schedule, weekly report, documentation and interview found that the result of the CPM with two critical paths are work activities. The first critical path are: Activity A (Mobilization and Demobilization), Activity C (Landfilling activity), Activity F (Concrete works K-175, Ready Mix). The second critical path are: Activity A (Mobilization and Demobilization), Activity E (Begisting work for black channels), and Activity G (Plain U24 Concrete Iron Works). Meanwhile, the result of PERT has 49% chance to be completed with the project duration of 18 weeks.

scholarly journals EVALUASI MANAJEMEN WAKTU PROYEK MENGGUNAKAN METODE PERT DAN CPM PADA PENGERJAAN “PROYEK REPARASI CRANE LAMPSON” DI PT MCDERMOTT INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-36
Author(s):  
Junafuji Oka ◽  
Dwi Kartikasari
Keyword(s):  
Project Scheduling ◽  
Critical Path ◽  
Project Evaluation ◽  
Critical Path Method ◽  
Time Efficiency ◽  
Project Duration ◽  
Project Completion

Project scheduling is one of the elements of planning outcomes, which can provide information about project schedules and project progress in terms of resource performance in terms of cost, labor, equipment and materials and project duration plan with time efficiency for project completion. Critical Path Method (CPM) and Project Evaluation Review Technic (PERT) are two project scheduling methods that use different approaches in the process. In making a project, the researcher assumes that the initial success of a project should begin with the planning and preparation of the correct phase and the systematic stage

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