scholarly journals Spatial and temporal variation of extremely abundant maxima of precipitation in Hungary during the period between 1951 and 2010

2012 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Lakatos ◽  
Z. Sümeghy ◽  
M. Soltész ◽  
J. Nyéki
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Values ◽  
Temporal Structure ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Coeffi Cients ◽  
Monthly Distribution ◽  
Geographical Maps ◽  
Short Time

The study deals with the accumulated database of 16 meteorological stations in Hungary during a period of 60 years. The purpose was to reveal the spatial and temporal structure of the appearance of extreme values in the daily distribution of data concerning precipitation. We strived to answer the question whether the frequency of incidences of daily maxima did they change or not during the 60 year-long period in the main growing regions of the country. It is demonstrated on geographical maps how the size and frequency of precipitation episodes ensued, and what are the typical traits of changes in intensity as well as in frequency of happenings projected according to their spatial and temporal distribution. From the point of view of fruit and vegetable growing, it is of prime interest what kind of frequency and intensity of changes occurred in precipitation. The temporal distribution of extremities though did not seem to change signifi cantly in some areas, but the recognition of changes may help conspicuously the planning and the choice between alternatives of species and varieties as well as technologies of horticultural managements for the long run. Extremely intense rains during a short time may cause erosion and stagnant water, thus we have to know what are the odds of risk. The temporary distribution of changes helps us to judge upon the reality of anxieties, which are expected according to the existence of trends. Seasonal or monthly distribution is visualised by maps, what is expected and what is accidental as for a decision in planning. The spatial distribution of coeffi cients of variation help us to decide what is the local chance of extreme happenings at different parts of the country and what is its coeffi cient of uncertainty. The risk of any undertaking dependent on conditions of weather could be expressed numerically by a coeffi cient of risk.

scholarly journals Spatial and temporal variation of extremely low minimum temperatures in Hungary during the period between 1951 and 2010

2012 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Lakatos ◽  
Z. Sümeghy ◽  
M. Soltész ◽  
Z. Szabó ◽  
J. Nyéki
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Structure ◽  
Spatial Relations ◽  
Fruit Production ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Absolute Temperature ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽  
Coeffi Cients ◽  
Monthly Distribution ◽  
Fruit Growing ◽  
Surrounding Areas

For this study, data of 16 meteorological stations have been processed over a period of 60 years with the purpose to reveal the spatial and temporal structure of the frequencies of absolute extreme minima in Hungary with special reference to the surmised global rise of temperatures on a worldwide scale. In the main areas of fruit growing, the monthly or seasonal absolute temperature maxima and minima are presented during the 60 year-long period and projected on the geographical map. For the main fruit- and vegetable growing regions the probability of winter- and late frosts is of prime interest. The time series of extreme temperatures though did not prove signifi cant changes over the period observed, but the information upon changes and their tendencies is a precious tool being utilised in planning, choice of adequate varieties for a longer period of time in the future. The deleterious winter frosts experienced in fruit production is not a consequence of a sole drop to a minimum temperature, but of an earlier period of mild temperatures during the winter, which sensibilised the trees. Frequent and extreme variations of temperatures may cause troubles at any time during the year and reduce the yields conspicuously. We ought to get familiar with the hazards of our climate and fi nd optimal solutions to mitigate the damages expected. The seasonal and monthly distribution projected on the geographical map we can follow up also the spatial relations and the signifi cance of their occurrence. Coeffi cients of variation between meteorological happenings at different localities facilitate the calculation of the probability of risks on the surrounding areas.

Tendencias del cambio climático en la Demarcación Hidrográfica de Manabí

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Campos Cedeño Antonio Fermín ◽  
Mendoza Álava Junior Orlando
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Technical Information ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Botanical Garden ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Water Network ◽  
Monthly Distribution ◽  
Index Terms

Abstract— The Manabí Hydrographic Demarcation (DHM) is characterized as the only one that does not receive input from Andes Mountains, therefore, its water network is fed exclusively by the rainfall that occurs in the rainy season and that the warm current of El Niño plays a fundamental role in its production. In order to have technical information, important for the planning, control and development of the water resources of the DHM, in this research is made a temporal analysis of the monthly precipitation for 55 years, period 1963-2017. The National Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology of Ecuador (INAMHI) in station M005, located in the Botanical Garden of the Technical University of Manabí (Universidad Técnica de Manabí) in Portoviejo, obtained these records. An analysis is made of the monthly and annual patterns, establishing that the El Niño events that occurred in 1983, 1997 and 1998, have set guidelines for the change in rainwater production at the intensity and temporal distribution levels, increasing the months of drought, while the levels of rainfall increase, concentrating in fewer months, basically in February and March. This is a situation that increases the water deficit especially when there is not enough infrastructure of hydraulic works for the storage and regulation of runoff.   Index Terms— Hydrology, rainfall, monthly distribution, annually distribution, climate change, El Niño phenomenon

scholarly journals DEM Based Study on Shielded Astronomical Solar Radiation and Possible Sunshine Duration under Terrain Influences on Mars by Using Spectral Methods

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 56
Author(s):  
Siwei Lin ◽  
Nan Chen
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Spatial Structure ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Temporal Structure ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Planetary Science ◽  
Shielding Effect ◽  
Critical Area ◽  
Martian Surface ◽  
Test Region

Solar radiation may be shielded by the terrain relief before reaching the Martian surface, especially over some rugged terrains. Yet, to date, no comprehensive studies on the spatial structure of shielded astronomical solar radiation (SASR) and the possible sunshine duration (PSD) on Mars have been conducted by previous researchers. Previous studies generally ignored the influences of the terrain on the SASR and PSD, which resulted in a corresponding unexplored field on SASR. The purpose of this paper is to study the Martian spatial-temporal structure of SASR and the PSD under terrain influences. In this paper, the theory of Earth’s SASR, the previous Martian SASR model and the theory of planetary science were combined to propose the SASR model that can be applied to Mars. Then, with the spectrum method theory of geography, we defined two new concepts of spectrums to explore the spatial-temporal distribution of SASR and PSD in different Martian landforms. We found SASR and PSD on Mars were significantly influenced by terrain relief and latitude and showed sufficient regularity, which can be concluded as a gradual attenuation with terrain relief and a regularity of latitude anisotropy. The latitude anisotropy feature is a manifestation of the terrain shielding effect. With the latitude varying, SASR and PSD at different temporal scale generally showed different features with those of Earth, which may be attributed to the imbalanced seasons caused by Martian moving orbits and velocity. Compared to PSD, SASR showed more regular variation under terrain relief and was more influenced by the terrain relief which revealed that SASR is more sensitive to terrain relief than PSD. Additionally, the critical area is a quantitative index to reflect the stable spatial structure of SASR and PSD in different landforms and may be viewed as the minimum test region of sample areas. The corresponding result of the experiments herein indicated that either spectrum can effectively depict the spatial-temporal distribution of SASR and PSD on Mars under terrain relief and deepen the understanding of the variation of SASR and PSD influences by terrain. The critical area of either spectrum can be employed to explore and determine the stable spatial structure of SASR and PSD in different landforms. The proposed Martian SASR model and the new spectral method theory shed new light on revealing the spatial-temporal structure of SASR and PSD under terrain influences on Mars.

scholarly journals Transformation of the Flow Regime of a Large Allochthonous River in Central Europe—An Example of the Vistula River in Poland

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 507 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dariusz Wrzesiński ◽  
Leszek Sobkowiak
Keyword(s):  
Flow Regime ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Temporal Structure ◽  
Flow Characteristics ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Theoretical Point ◽  
Vistula River ◽  
Basin Water

Identification of river flow regime and its possible changes caused by natural factors or human activity is one of major issues in modern hydrology. In such studies different approaches and different indicators can be used. The aim of this study is to determine changes in flow regime of the largest river in Poland—the Vistula, using new, more objectified coefficients and indices, based on data recorded in 22 gauges on the Vistula mainstream and 38 gauges on its tributaries in the multi-year period 1971–2010. The paper consists of three main parts: in the first part, in order to recognize changes in the flow regime characteristics along the Vistula, data from gauges located on the river mainstream were analyzed with the help of the theory of entropy. In the second part gauging stations on the Vistula mainstream and its tributaries were grouped; values of the newly introduced pentadic Pardé’s coefficient of flow (discharge) (PPC) were taken as the grouping criterion. In the third part of the study a novel method of determining river regime characteristics was applied: through the recognition of the temporal structure of hydrological phenomena and their changes in the annual cycle sequences of hydrological periods (characteristic phases of the hydrological cycle) on the Vistula River mainstream and its tributaries were identified and their occurrence in the yearly cycle was discussed. Based on the detected changes of the 73-pentad Pardé’s coefficients of flow four main types of rivers were distinguished. Transformation of the flow regime was reflected in the identified different sequences of hydrological periods in the average annual cycle. It was found that while transformation of the Vistula River regime occurred along its whole course, the most frequent changes were detected in its upper, mountainous reaches, under the influence of the flow characteristics of its tributaries. This allowed the Vistula to be considered the allochthonous river. These findings are interesting not only from a theoretical point of view, but they also can be valuable to stakeholders in the field of the Vistula River basin water management and hydrological forecasting, including flood protection, which has recently become a matter of growing concern due to the observed effects of climate change and human impact.

scholarly journals Dynamic Integrated Model for Assessing Fisheries: Discard Bans as an Implicit Value-Added Tax

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Maria Da Rocha ◽  
Javier García-Cutrín ◽  
Maria-Jose Gutiérrez ◽  
Raul Prellezo ◽  
Eduardo Sanchez
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Value Added Tax ◽  
Biological Variables ◽  
A Value ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Social ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIntegrated economic models have become popular for assessing climate change. In this paper we show how these methods can be used to assess the impact of a discard ban in a fishery. We state that a discard ban can be understood as a confiscatory tax equivalent to a value-added tax. Under this framework, we show that a discard ban improves the sustainability of the fishery in the short run and increases economic welfare in the long run. In particular, we show that consumption, capital and wages show an initial decrease just after the implementation of the discard ban then recover after some periods to reach their steady-sate values, which are 16–20% higher than the initial values, depending on the valuation of the landed discards. The discard ban also improves biological variables, increasing landings by 14% and reducing discards by 29% on the initial figures. These patterns highlight the two channels through which discard bans affect a fishery: the tax channel, which shows that the confiscation of landed discards reduces the incentive to invest in the fishery; and the productivity channel, which increases the abundance of the stock. Thus, during the first few years after the implementation of a discard ban, the negative effect from the tax channel dominates the positive effect from the productivity channel, because the stock needs time to recover. Once stock abundance improves, the productivity channel dominates the tax channel and the economic variables rise above their initial levels. Our results also show that a landed discards valorisation policy is optimal from the social welfare point of view provided that incentives to increase discards are not created.

Master curves for the response of layered systems to compressional seismic waves

1967 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 515-543 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis M. Fernandez
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Waves ◽  
Transfer Functions ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Master Curves ◽  
Layer System ◽  
Crust And Upper Mantle ◽  
Response Characteristics ◽  
Families Of Curves ◽  
Short Time

abstract The layers of the earth's crust act as a filter with respect to seimic energy arriving at a given station. Consequently the motion recorded at the surface depends not only on the frequency content of the source and on the response characteristics of the recording instrument, but also on the elastic parameters and thicknesses of the transmitting layers. This latter dependence is the basis for a method of investigating the structure of the crust and upper mantle. To facilitate this investigation a set of master curves for the transfer functions of the vertical and horizontal component of longitudinal waves and their ratios is presented. The calculation of these curves is in terms of a dimensionless parameter. This calculation allows one to group the curves corresponding to different crustal models into families of curves. The characteristics of these curves are discussed from the point of view of their “periodicity” in the frequency domain and of their amplitude in order to investigate the influence of the layer parameters. Considerations, either of constructive interference or of Fourier analysis of a pulse multiply reflected within the layer system, reveal that the amplitudes of the transfer curves depend on the velocity contrasts at the interfaces of the system. The “periodicity” or spacing of the peaks depends on the time lags between the first arrivals and the arrivals of the different reverberations. Closely spaced fluctuations correspond to large-time lags, and widely spaced fluctuations to short-time lags.

scholarly journals Use And Comparison of Topis And Electre Methods In Personnel Selection

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 ◽  
pp. 01021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bilgin Şenel ◽  
Mine Şenel ◽  
Gizem Aydemir
Keyword(s):  
Personnel Selection ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Minimum Cost ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Blue Collar Worker ◽  
Automotive Company ◽  
Worker Selection ◽  
Electre Method ◽  
The Right ◽  
Short Time

One of the most important function of human resources is personnel selection process. This process should be done professionally, in a short time and with minimum cost. After personnel selection process, performance of the hired person is very important for the permanence and success of the company. From this point of view, the aim of this study is to select a personnel among the candidates efficiently, with minimum cost and within a short time in one of the leading companies of Turkey in automotive sector. In order to select the right personnel all criterias which has great impact on blue collar worker selection was decided and these criterias are weighted. From the candidate pool of automotive company, appropriate candidates were selected by using TOPSIS AND ELECTRE method which are multi-criteria decision making methods

scholarly journals THE VALUATION OF SELF-FUNDING INSTALMENT WARRANTS

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (04) ◽  
pp. 1750025
Author(s):  
J. N. DEWYNNE ◽  
N. EL-HASSAN
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Finite Difference ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Approximate Solutions ◽  
Fair Value ◽  
Small Time ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
First Order Correction ◽  
Short Time

We present two models for the fair value of a self-funding instalment warrant. In both models we assume the underlying stock process follows a geometric Brownian motion. In the first model, we assume that the underlying stock pays a continuous dividend yield and in the second we assume that it pays a series of discrete dividend yields. We show that both models admit similarity reductions and use these to obtain simple finite-difference and Monte Carlo solutions. We use the method of multiple scales to connect these two models and establish the first-order correction term to be applied to the first model in order to obtain the second, thereby establishing that the former model is justified when many dividends are paid during the life of the warrant. Further, we show that the functional form of this correction may be expressed in terms of the hedging parameters for the first model and is, from this point of view, independent of the particular payoff in the first model. In two appendices we present approximate solutions for the first model which are valid in the small volatility and the short time-to-expiry limits, respectively, by using singular perturbation techniques. The small volatility solutions are used to check our finite-difference solutions and the small time-to-expiry solutions are used as a means of systematically smoothing the payoffs so we may use pathwise sensitivities for our Monte Carlo methods.

scholarly journals The Causality between Education and GDP Growth in Asian Countries

2015 ◽  
Vol 50 ◽  
pp. 28-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Mehrara ◽  
Maysam Musai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Formal Education ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Variable Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Educational Investments

This paper investigates the causal relationship between education and GDP in 40 Asian countries by using panel unit root tests and panel cointegration analysis for the period 1970-2010. A three-variable model is formulated with capital formation as the third variable. The results show a strong causality from investment and economic growth to education in these countries. Yet, education does not have any significant effects on GDP and investment in short- and long-run. It means that it is the capital formation and GDP that drives education in mentioned countries, not vice versa. So the findings of this paper support the point of view that it is higher economic growth that leads to higher education proxy. It seems that as the number of enrollments raise, the quality of the education declines. Moreover, the formal education systems are not market oriented in these countries. This may be the reason why huge educational investments in these developing countries fail to generate higher growth. By promoting practice-oriented training for students particularly in technical disciplines and matching education system to the needs of the labor market, it will help create long-term jobs and improve the country’s future prospects.

scholarly journals Valuing the Future, Discounting in Random Environments: A Review

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaume Masoliver ◽  
Miquel Montero ◽  
Josep Perelló ◽  
J. Doyne Farmer ◽  
John Geanakoplos
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Random Environments ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Price Of Risk ◽  
Future Discounting ◽  
Pricing Theory ◽  
Risk Neutral Measures ◽  
Far Future

We address the process of discounting in random environments which allows to value the far future in economic terms. We review several approaches to the problem regarding different well-established stochastic market dynamics in the continuous-time context and include the Feynman-Kac approach. We also review the relation between bond pricing theory and discount and introduce the market price of risk and the risk neutral measures from an intuitive point of view devoid of excessive formalism. We provide the discount for each economic model and discuss their key results. We finally present a summary of our previous empirical studies on several countries of the long-run discount problem.

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