Risk management & Analyses in Albpetrol Company using Monte Carlo Method

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blerta Mjeda ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method

The Research of Construction Project Risk Management Based on Monte Carlo Method and Fuzzy Mathematics

2012 ◽  
Vol 442 ◽  
pp. 341-345
Author(s):  
Si Dong Xu ◽  
Xiao Li Cai ◽  
Wei Liu
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Qualitative Analysis ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Fuzzy Mathematics ◽  
Project Risk

A lot of risks of management occur under the process of the construction project, and it will always bring more tremendous negative influence to the project goal. Therefore, there should have the effective risk method for the project superintendent to forecast the risk occurrence and reduce the loss which the risk brings. There are lots of methods about risks management under the process of the construction project at present and most of the method emphasize particularly on qualitative analysis. This article presents a method which base on the knowledge of Monte Carlo Simulation. It will combine the qualitative analysis and quantitative research and puts forward a new solution.

MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS FOR THE RISK MANAGEMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION

2010 ◽  
Vol 12 (01) ◽  
pp. 87-101
Author(s):  
OSAMA A. B. HASSAN
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulations ◽  
Environmental Pollution ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Stochastic Models ◽  
Chemical Pollution ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

This article attempts to adapt the Monte Carlo method to the quantitative risk management of environmental pollution. In this context, the feasibility of stochastic models to quantitatively evaluate the risk of chemical pollution is first discussed and then linked to a case study in which Monte Carlo simulations are applied. The objective of the case study is to develop a Monte Carlo scheme for evaluating the pollution in a lake environment. It is shown that the results can be of interest as they define the risk margins that are important to the sustainability of the ecosystem in general, and human health in particular. Moreover, assessing the environmental pollution with the help of the Monte Carlo method can be feasible and serve the purpose of investigating and controlling the environmental pollution, in the long and short terms.

scholarly journals Risk management of a torrential flood construction project using the Monte Carlo simulation

2016 ◽  
pp. 29-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandar Baumgertel ◽  
Nada Dragovic ◽  
Tijana Vulevic
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Flow Profile ◽  
Total Cost ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Relevant Variables

Projects for the regulation of torrent basins carry various unforeseen adverse effects that may result in breached deadlines, increased costs, a reduction of quality etc. The paper presents the basic characteristics and most frequent risks associated with erosion control. Furthermore, it provides an overview of risk management through its basic stages - starting from risk identification and risk analysis to risk responses, including the methods used for risk analysis. As a part of quantitative methods for risk analysis, the Monte Carlo method is presented as the one most frequently used in simulations. The Monte Carlo method is a stochastic simulation method consisting of the following stages: the identification of criterion and relevant variables, the allocation of probability for relevant variables, the determination of correlation coefficient among relevant variables, simulation execution and result analysis. This method was applied in the analysis of the total cost of the project for the basin regulation of the Dumaca River in order to determine the funding that would be used as a backup in case of unforeseen events with a negative impact. The project for the regulation of the Dumaca River includes basin regulation in the form of complex flow profile and the lining of zones where necessary in terms of stability. The total cost is presented as a sum of costs of all works (preliminary works, earthworks, masonry works, concrete works and finishing works). The Monte Carlo simulation for cost analysis is carried out using the Oracle Crystal Ball software with its basic steps described in the paper. A sum of funding needed as a financial backup in case of unforeseen events with negative effects is obtained as the simulated total cost of the project.

scholarly journals RISK ASSESSMENT FOR VIOLATION OF ANTI-TRUST LEGISLATION BY STATE EXECUTIVE AUTHORITIES

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 390-401
Author(s):  
A. B. Androsova ◽  
O. N. Orlova ◽  
S. D. Furta
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Bow Tie

The article deals with a problem of building an anti-trust compliance system in state executive authorities from the point of view of contemporary risk management. The authors expound a well-known instrument based on the bow-tie diagram construction which successfully helps to develop effective measures to prevent violation of anti-trust legislation cases by state executive authorities. They also give some numeric results of statistical modelling of anti-trust legislation violation risks by state executive authorities by means of the Monte-Carlo method.

Outbursts of comet Schwassmann-Wachmann 1, and the cloud of interplanetary boulders

1974 ◽  
Vol 22 ◽  
pp. 307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zdenek Sekanina
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Interplanetary Space ◽  
Porous Matrix ◽  
Maximum Diameter ◽  
Expansion Velocity ◽  
Solid Constituent ◽  
Meteoric Material ◽  
Periodic Comet

AbstractIt is suggested that the outbursts of Periodic Comet Schwassmann-Wachmann 1 are triggered by impacts of interplanetary boulders on the surface of the comet’s nucleus. The existence of a cloud of such boulders in interplanetary space was predicted by Harwit (1967). We have used the hypothesis to calculate the characteristics of the outbursts – such as their mean rate, optically important dimensions of ejected debris, expansion velocity of the ejecta, maximum diameter of the expanding cloud before it fades out, and the magnitude of the accompanying orbital impulse – and found them reasonably consistent with observations, if the solid constituent of the comet is assumed in the form of a porous matrix of lowstrength meteoric material. A Monte Carlo method was applied to simulate the distributions of impacts, their directions and impact velocities.

Structures and crystallization of vacuum-deposited amorphous Se and Sb films

1990 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 140-141
Author(s):  
Makoto Shiojiri ◽  
Toshiyuki Isshiki ◽  
Tetsuya Fudaba ◽  
Yoshihiro Hirota
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Electron Microscope ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Computer Program ◽  
Radial Distribution ◽  
Film Formation ◽  
Amorphous State ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Amorphous Films ◽  
Binding Condition

In hexagonal Se crystal each atom is covalently bound to two others to form an endless spiral chain, and in Sb crystal each atom to three others to form an extended puckered sheet. Such chains and sheets may be regarded as one- and two- dimensional molecules, respectively. In this paper we investigate the structures in amorphous state of these elements and the crystallization.HRTEM and ED images of vacuum-deposited amorphous Se and Sb films were taken with a JEM-200CX electron microscope (Cs=1.2 mm). The structure models of amorphous films were constructed on a computer by Monte Carlo method. Generated atoms were subsequently deposited on a space of 2 nm×2 nm as they fulfiled the binding condition, to form a film 5 nm thick (Fig. 1a-1c). An improvement on a previous computer program has been made as to realize the actual film formation. Radial distribution fuction (RDF) curves, ED intensities and HRTEM images for the constructed structure models were calculated, and compared with the observed ones.

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