The MonTe Carlo Method Application in Cost Risk Management of Pre-Transmission Line Project Based on Markov Chain

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenchao Zhu ◽  
Yi He ◽  
Huirui Ren ◽  
Xin Wang ◽  
Haifeng Tian
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Transmission Line ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Cost Risk

MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS FOR THE RISK MANAGEMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION

2010 ◽  
Vol 12 (01) ◽  
pp. 87-101
Author(s):  
OSAMA A. B. HASSAN
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulations ◽  
Environmental Pollution ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Stochastic Models ◽  
Chemical Pollution ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

This article attempts to adapt the Monte Carlo method to the quantitative risk management of environmental pollution. In this context, the feasibility of stochastic models to quantitatively evaluate the risk of chemical pollution is first discussed and then linked to a case study in which Monte Carlo simulations are applied. The objective of the case study is to develop a Monte Carlo scheme for evaluating the pollution in a lake environment. It is shown that the results can be of interest as they define the risk margins that are important to the sustainability of the ecosystem in general, and human health in particular. Moreover, assessing the environmental pollution with the help of the Monte Carlo method can be feasible and serve the purpose of investigating and controlling the environmental pollution, in the long and short terms.

scholarly journals Markov chain Monte Carlo method to solve Fredholm integral equations

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 1673-1678
Author(s):  
Yi Tian
Keyword(s):  
Integral Equation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Markov Chain Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Integral Equations ◽  
Fredholm Integral Equations ◽  
Thermal Problem ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

A thermal problem can be always modeled using an integral equation. This paper uses the Monte Carlo method based on the simulation of a continuous Markov chain to solve Fredholm integral equations of the second kind. Some examples are given to show the efficiency of the present work.

scholarly journals Risk management of a torrential flood construction project using the Monte Carlo simulation

2016 ◽  
pp. 29-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandar Baumgertel ◽  
Nada Dragovic ◽  
Tijana Vulevic
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Flow Profile ◽  
Total Cost ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Relevant Variables

Projects for the regulation of torrent basins carry various unforeseen adverse effects that may result in breached deadlines, increased costs, a reduction of quality etc. The paper presents the basic characteristics and most frequent risks associated with erosion control. Furthermore, it provides an overview of risk management through its basic stages - starting from risk identification and risk analysis to risk responses, including the methods used for risk analysis. As a part of quantitative methods for risk analysis, the Monte Carlo method is presented as the one most frequently used in simulations. The Monte Carlo method is a stochastic simulation method consisting of the following stages: the identification of criterion and relevant variables, the allocation of probability for relevant variables, the determination of correlation coefficient among relevant variables, simulation execution and result analysis. This method was applied in the analysis of the total cost of the project for the basin regulation of the Dumaca River in order to determine the funding that would be used as a backup in case of unforeseen events with a negative impact. The project for the regulation of the Dumaca River includes basin regulation in the form of complex flow profile and the lining of zones where necessary in terms of stability. The total cost is presented as a sum of costs of all works (preliminary works, earthworks, masonry works, concrete works and finishing works). The Monte Carlo simulation for cost analysis is carried out using the Oracle Crystal Ball software with its basic steps described in the paper. A sum of funding needed as a financial backup in case of unforeseen events with negative effects is obtained as the simulated total cost of the project.

scholarly journals RISK ASSESSMENT FOR VIOLATION OF ANTI-TRUST LEGISLATION BY STATE EXECUTIVE AUTHORITIES

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 390-401
Author(s):  
A. B. Androsova ◽  
O. N. Orlova ◽  
S. D. Furta
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Bow Tie

The article deals with a problem of building an anti-trust compliance system in state executive authorities from the point of view of contemporary risk management. The authors expound a well-known instrument based on the bow-tie diagram construction which successfully helps to develop effective measures to prevent violation of anti-trust legislation cases by state executive authorities. They also give some numeric results of statistical modelling of anti-trust legislation violation risks by state executive authorities by means of the Monte-Carlo method.

UGR CALCULATION BASED ON THE LUMINANCE SPATIAL-ANGULAR DISTRIBUTION

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (4) ◽  
pp. 25-32
Author(s):  
Viktor Zheltov ◽  
Viktor Chembaev
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Angular Distribution ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Visual Task ◽  
New Method ◽  
Lighting System ◽  
Preliminary Assessment ◽  
System A ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The article has considered the calculation of the unified glare rating (UGR) based on the luminance spatial-angular distribution (LSAD). The method of local estimations of the Monte Carlo method is proposed as a method for modeling LSAD. On the basis of LSAD, it becomes possible to evaluate the quality of lighting by many criteria, including the generally accepted UGR. UGR allows preliminary assessment of the level of comfort for performing a visual task in a lighting system. A new method of "pixel-by-pixel" calculation of UGR based on LSAD is proposed.

PSHA software review based on the Monte Carlo method

2020 ◽  
pp. 14-24
Author(s):  
V.A. Mironov ◽  
S.A. Peretokin ◽  
K.V. Simonov
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Software Review ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Test Calculation ◽  
Seismic Surveys ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The article is a continuation of the software research to perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) as one of the main stages in engineering seismic surveys. The article provides an overview of modern software for PSHA based on the Monte Carlo method, describes in detail the work of foreign programs OpenQuake Engine and EqHaz. A test calculation of seismic hazard was carried out to compare the functionality of domestic and foreign software.

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