Uncertainty analysis of milling parameters using Monte Carlo simulation, the Taguchi optimization method and data-driven modeling

2019 ◽  
Vol 61 (5) ◽  
pp. 477-483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Fatih Kahraman ◽  
Habibullah Bilge ◽  
Sabri Öztürk
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Taguchi Optimization ◽  
Taguchi Optimization Method ◽  
Milling Parameters ◽  
Data Driven Modeling

scholarly journals Hydraulic fractures from non-uniform perforation cluster spacing: Laboratory study on gelatin and data-driven modeling

2020 ◽  
Vol 205 ◽  
pp. 03006
Author(s):  
Andreas Michael
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Horizontal Wells ◽  
Experimental Tests ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Hydraulic Fractures ◽  
Fracture Geometry ◽  
Data Driven Modeling

Hydraulic fracture treatments in horizontal wells involve complexities contemporary analytical and numerical models do not incorporate. Interactions between simultaneously propagating fractures affects neighboring fractures making them grow dissimilarly to each other. This leads to a non-homogeneous fracture geometry, which in many instances results to ineffective or prematurely terminated fractures and therefore sub-optimal economic performance. This project involves the creation of a probabilistic predictive model (PPM), which incorporates empirical inputs from laboratory-scale experimental tests. Random probabilistic distributions are biased statistically in order to generate profiles that match the experimental results. The PPM developed is using Monte Carlo simulation to give a likely final multi-frac geometry.

scholarly journals A Comparison of Different Data-driven Procedures to Determine the Bunching Window

2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 262-293
Author(s):  
Vincent Dekker ◽  
Karsten Schweikert
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
Prior Information ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Taxable Income ◽  
Counterfactual Models ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Second Procedure

In this article, we compare three data-driven procedures to determine the bunching window in a Monte Carlo simulation of taxable income. Following the standard approach in the empirical bunching literature, we fit a flexible polynomial model to a simulated income distribution, excluding data in a range around a prespecified kink. First, we propose to implement methods for the estimation of structural breaks to determine a bunching regime around the kink. A second procedure is based on Cook’s distances aiming to identify outlier observations. Finally, we apply the iterative counterfactual procedure proposed by Bosch, Dekker, and Strohmaier which evaluates polynomial counterfactual models for all possible bunching windows. While our simulation results show that all three procedures are fairly accurate, the iterative counterfactual procedure is the preferred method to detect the bunching window when no prior information about the true size of the bunching window is available.

scholarly journals Social-network-based water supply network sectorization methodology using monte carlo simulation to predict economical and operational benefits

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 44-53
Author(s):  
Enrique Campbell ◽  
Amilkar Illaya-Ayza ◽  
Joaquín Izquierdo ◽  
Rafael Pérez-García ◽  
Idel Montalvo
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Supply Network ◽  
Water Supply Network ◽  
Water Supply Management ◽  
Net Profit ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Water Supply Network (WSN) sectorization is a broadly known technique aimed at enhancing water supply management. In general, existing methodologies for sectorization of WSNs are limited to assessment of the impact of its implementation over reduction of background leakage, underestimating increased capacity to detect new leakage events and undermining appropriate investment substantiation. In this work, we raise this issue and put in place a methodology to optimize sectors' design. To this end, we carry out a novel combination of the Short Run Economic Leakage Level concept (SRELL- corresponding to leakage level that can occur in a WSN in a certain period of time and whose reparation would be more costly than the benefits that can be obtained). With a non-deterministic optimization method based on Genetic Algorithms (GAs) in combination with Monte Carlo simulation. As an example of application, methodology is implemented over a 246 km pipe-long WSN, reporting 72 397 $/year as net profit.

scholarly journals Experimental Optimization of Using Natural Pozzolan in Chloride Ion Exposed Concrete via Taguchi Method

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-75
Author(s):  
Amir Behshad ◽  
Mostafa Askarian Zardak ◽  
Yaser Mohammadi
Keyword(s):  
Taguchi Method ◽  
Water Absorption ◽  
Chloride Ion ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Mix Design ◽  
Natural Pozzolan ◽  
Taguchi Optimization ◽  
Taguchi Optimization Method ◽  
Oman Sea ◽  
Optimal Mix

Concrete durability is one of the most important concerns in the field of construction. The environmentally friendly materials that can provide the durability are of great value in the construction of concrete structures. The use of natural pozzolans is one of the cheapest and most efficient methods in this field, which offers a good performance from environmental and economic point of view and satisfies required engineering parameters. In this study, the effect of using natural pozzolan in the manufacture of concrete exposed to sulfate and chloride ion of Oman sea water was investigated. The Taguchi optimization method was used to reduce the number of samples prepared, reduce the cost of experiments and achieve an optimal mix design. The four parameters, namely water to cement ratio, different percentages of natural pozzolan, super-plasticizer and cement grade with different ratios, were considered as problem variables. The Taguchi optimization method proposed 8 mix designs based on the defined levels for the variables. By constructing 96 samples, two parameters of permeability and water absorption from Oman Sea and drinking water were investigated in the samples. By introducing the results of the experiments into the Taguchi method, the final optimal design was presented by this method, and by constructing 12 additional samples and conducting permeability and water absorption experiments, the behavior of this optimal mix design was verified. The appropriate performance of the Taguchi method was demonstrated by obtaining the optimal mix designs from the Taguchi method, constructing this mix design and comparing the results with the regulation limitations. The results showed that it is acceptable to use natural pozzolan under moderate to severe chloride and sulfate ion attacks, but it is not recommended in the extreme environmental conditions.

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