scholarly journals Probabilities of large earthquakes occurring in California on the San Andreas fault

1988 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Large Earthquakes

scholarly journals A revised position for the primary strand of the Pleistocene-Holocene San Andreas fault in southern California

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (13) ◽  
pp. eaaz5691
Author(s):  
Kimberly Blisniuk ◽  
Katherine Scharer ◽  
Warren D. Sharp ◽  
Roland Burgmann ◽  
Colin Amos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Southern California ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Large Magnitude ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Large Earthquakes ◽  
Dependent Probability

The San Andreas fault has the highest calculated time-dependent probability for large-magnitude earthquakes in southern California. However, where the fault is multistranded east of the Los Angeles metropolitan area, it has been uncertain which strand has the fastest slip rate and, therefore, which has the highest probability of a destructive earthquake. Reconstruction of offset Pleistocene-Holocene landforms dated using the uranium-thorium soil carbonate and beryllium-10 surface exposure techniques indicates slip rates of 24.1 ± 3 millimeter per year for the San Andreas fault, with 21.6 ± 2 and 2.5 ± 1 millimeters per year for the Mission Creek and Banning strands, respectively. These data establish the Mission Creek strand as the primary fault bounding the Pacific and North American plates at this latitude and imply that 6 to 9 meters of elastic strain has accumulated along the fault since the most recent surface-rupturing earthquake, highlighting the potential for large earthquakes along this strand.

Reconciling Precariously Balanced Rocks (PBRs) with Large Earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault System

2015 ◽  
Vol 86 (5) ◽  
pp. 1345-1353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Grant Ludwig ◽  
James N. Brune ◽  
Abdolrasool Anooshehpoor ◽  
Matthew D. Purvance ◽  
Richard J. Brune ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
Fault System ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
San Andreas Fault System ◽  
Large Earthquakes

Seismic risk in linear source regions, with application to the San Andreas fault

1977 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 233-241
Author(s):  
Bruce M. Douglas ◽  
Alan Ryall
Keyword(s):  
Fault Zone ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
Source Zone ◽  
Linear Source ◽  
Recurrence Times ◽  
Rupture Length ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
A Site ◽  
Large Earthquakes

abstract A method is described for determining recurrence times as a function of distance to the causative fault and magnitude, for earthquakes distributed along a linear source zone. The method takes into account rupture length, which is scaled to magnitude, and permits direct calculation of approximate return periods for peak ground-motion parameters for large earthquakes, when the appropriate attenuation functions are known. Several examples are presented using instrumentally determined seismicity along the San Andreas fault zone. Results illustrate the necessity of incorporating rupture length in calculations related to seismic risk; for large earthquakes, it is also necessary to use a source region large enough to contain the rupture zones of all such events. For a site in the San Andreas fault zone we find that the recurrence time to be within 10 km of the causative fault of an earthquake with M ≧ 8 is 200 to 300 years, depending on the choice of maximum magnitude (8.6 or 8.4). For a site on the fault in the Hollister region, we find that recurrence times to be within 10 km of the rupture due to events of M ≧ 5, 6 and 7 are, respectively, 12, 45 and 105 years.

Irregular Recurrence of Large Earthquakes Along the San Andreas Fault: Evidence from Trees

Science ◽  
1988 ◽  
Vol 241 (4862) ◽  
pp. 196-199 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. C. JACOBY ◽  
P. R. SHEPPARD ◽  
K. E. SIEH
Keyword(s):  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Large Earthquakes
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document