Timing of Large Earthquakes during the Past 500 Years along the Santa Cruz Mountains Segment of the San Andreas Fault at Mill Canyon, near Watsonville, California

2012 ◽  
Vol 102 (3) ◽  
pp. 1099-1119 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. E. Fumal
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (13) ◽  
pp. eaaz5691
Author(s):  
Kimberly Blisniuk ◽  
Katherine Scharer ◽  
Warren D. Sharp ◽  
Roland Burgmann ◽  
Colin Amos ◽  
...  

The San Andreas fault has the highest calculated time-dependent probability for large-magnitude earthquakes in southern California. However, where the fault is multistranded east of the Los Angeles metropolitan area, it has been uncertain which strand has the fastest slip rate and, therefore, which has the highest probability of a destructive earthquake. Reconstruction of offset Pleistocene-Holocene landforms dated using the uranium-thorium soil carbonate and beryllium-10 surface exposure techniques indicates slip rates of 24.1 ± 3 millimeter per year for the San Andreas fault, with 21.6 ± 2 and 2.5 ± 1 millimeters per year for the Mission Creek and Banning strands, respectively. These data establish the Mission Creek strand as the primary fault bounding the Pacific and North American plates at this latitude and imply that 6 to 9 meters of elastic strain has accumulated along the fault since the most recent surface-rupturing earthquake, highlighting the potential for large earthquakes along this strand.


2015 ◽  
Vol 86 (5) ◽  
pp. 1345-1353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Grant Ludwig ◽  
James N. Brune ◽  
Abdolrasool Anooshehpoor ◽  
Matthew D. Purvance ◽  
Richard J. Brune ◽  
...  

Geosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sally F. McGill ◽  
Lewis A. Owen ◽  
Ray J. Weldon ◽  
Katherine J. Kendrick ◽  
Reed J. Burgette

Four new latest Pleistocene slip rates from two sites along the northwestern half of the San Bernardino strand of the San Andreas fault suggest the slip rate decreases southeastward as slip transfers from the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault onto the northern San Jacinto fault zone. At Badger Canyon, offsets coupled with radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages provide three independent slip rates (with 95% confidence intervals): (1) the apex of the oldest dated alluvial fan (ca. 30–28 ka) is right-laterally offset ~300–400 m yielding a slip rate of 13.5 +2.2/−2.5 mm/yr; (2) a terrace riser incised into the northwestern side of this alluvial fan is offset ~280–290 m and was abandoned ca. 23 ka, yielding a slip rate of 11.9 +0.9/−1.2 mm/yr; and (3) a younger alluvial fan (13–15 ka) has been offset 120–200 m from the same source canyon, yielding a slip rate of 11.8 +4.2/−3.5 mm/yr. These rates are all consistent and result in a preferred, time-averaged rate for the past ~28 k.y. of 12.8 +5.3/−4.7 mm/yr (95% confidence interval), with an 84% confidence interval of 10–16 mm/yr. At Matthews Ranch, in Pitman Canyon, ~13 km northwest of Badger Canyon, a landslide offset ~650 m with a 10Be age of ca. 47 ka yields a slip rate of 14.5 +9.9/−6.2 mm/yr (95% confidence interval). All of these slip rates for the San Bernardino strand are significantly slower than a previously published rate of 24.5 ± 3.5 mm/yr at the southern end of the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault (Weldon and Sieh, 1985), suggesting that ~12 mm/yr of slip transfers from the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault to the northern San Jacinto fault zone (and other faults) between Lone Pine Canyon and Badger Canyon, with most (if not all) of this slip transfer happening near Cajon Creek. This has been a consistent behavior of the fault for at least the past ~47 k.y.


1977 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 233-241
Author(s):  
Bruce M. Douglas ◽  
Alan Ryall

abstract A method is described for determining recurrence times as a function of distance to the causative fault and magnitude, for earthquakes distributed along a linear source zone. The method takes into account rupture length, which is scaled to magnitude, and permits direct calculation of approximate return periods for peak ground-motion parameters for large earthquakes, when the appropriate attenuation functions are known. Several examples are presented using instrumentally determined seismicity along the San Andreas fault zone. Results illustrate the necessity of incorporating rupture length in calculations related to seismic risk; for large earthquakes, it is also necessary to use a source region large enough to contain the rupture zones of all such events. For a site in the San Andreas fault zone we find that the recurrence time to be within 10 km of the causative fault of an earthquake with M ≧ 8 is 200 to 300 years, depending on the choice of maximum magnitude (8.6 or 8.4). For a site on the fault in the Hollister region, we find that recurrence times to be within 10 km of the rupture due to events of M ≧ 5, 6 and 7 are, respectively, 12, 45 and 105 years.


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