Reproduction of electoral voting patterns in the subnational elections

2019 ◽  
pp. 198-218
Author(s):  
Elizaveta Korneeva
Keyword(s):  
Subnational Elections

Federal and Subnational Elections in Russia: Coherence and Divergence in Electoral Outcomes

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 329-353
Author(s):  
Rostislav Turovsky ◽  
Marina Sukhova
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Strong Connection ◽  
Regional Parties ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Electoral Authoritarianism ◽  
Subnational Elections ◽  
Effective Number Of Parties ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
Regional Elections

Abstract This article examines the differences between Russian voting at federal elections and regional legislature elections, both combined and conducted independently. The authors analyse these differences, their character and their dynamics as an important characteristic of the nationalisation of the party system. They also test hypotheses about a higher level of oppositional voting and competitiveness in subnational elections, in accordance with the theory of second-order elections, as well as the strategic nature of voting at federal elections, by contrast with expressive voting during subnational campaigns. The empirical study is based on calculating the differences in votes for leading Russian parties at subnational elections and at federal elections (simultaneous, preceding and following) from 2003, when mandatory voting on party lists was widespread among the regions, to 2019. The level of competitiveness is measured in a similar way, by calculating the effective number of parties. The study indicates a low level of autonomy of regional party systems, in many ways caused by the fact that the law made it impossible to create regional parties, and then also by the 2005 ban on creation of regional blocs. The strong connection between federal and regional elections in Russia clearly underlines the fluid and asynchronic nature of its electoral dynamics, where subnational elections typically predetermine the results of the following federal campaigns. At the same time, the formal success of the nationalisation of the party system, achieved by increasing the homogeneity of voting at the 2016 and 2018 federal elections, is not reflected by the opposing process of desynchronisation between federal and regional elections after Putin’s third-term election. There is also a clear rise in the scale of the differences between the two. At the same time, the study demonstrates the potential presence in Russia of features common to subnational elections in many countries: their greater support for the opposition and presence of affective voting. However, there is a clear exception to this trend during the period of maximum mobilisation of the loyal electorate at the subnational elections immediately following the accession of Crimea in 2014–2015, and such tendencies are generally restrained by the conditions of electoral authoritarianism.

On digital front-runners and late-comers: Analyzing issue competition over digitization in German subnational elections

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 247-265
Author(s):  
Markus B. Siewert ◽  
Pascal D. König
Keyword(s):  
Economic Transformation ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Party Manifestos ◽  
Subnational Elections ◽  
Issue Competition ◽  
Do So

AbstractDespite the sweeping societal and economic transformation brought about by digitization, it has remained a relatively marginal topic in elections, with parties having few incentives to signal commitment to digitization. Why then would parties start to do so? We address this question by examining party manifestos from German subnational elections in the period between 2010 and 2018. Our analysis contributes to the research on issue competition by looking at why parties engage with the topic of the digitization even though it has neither become politicized nor salient, at present. We find, first, that parties emphasize digitization more in regions belonging to the mid-tier in terms of their degree of digital modernization. Second, parties with more resources and greater ideological compatibility signal more commitment to digitization. Finally, electoral success of the Pirate Party as a credible challenger has been followed by greater emphasis on digitization, especially among the ideologically closest competitors.

Political Decentralization and Electoral Accountability: The Argentine Experience, 1983–2001

2005 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 133-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
FRANÇOIS GÉLINEAU ◽  
KAREN L. REMMER
Keyword(s):  
Public Support ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Decentralized Decision Making ◽  
Public Resources ◽  
National Performance ◽  
Electoral Impact ◽  
Subnational Elections ◽  
The Impact

To what extent does public support for subnational officials fluctuate in response to local rather than national performance? Are the policy failures of subnational officials reliably punished by voters? Drawing upon both individual and aggregate level data, this article attempts to shed new light on these questions about the politics of decentralization by exploring electoral outcomes and public opinion at the subnational level in Argentina. Consistent with referendum voting models, this analysis suggests that the fate of candidates in both national and subnational elections is shaped by the performance of the incumbent presidential administration. Moreover, to the extent that subnational performance has an electoral impact, voters do not necessarily respond in ways that enhance electoral accountability. Voters not only blame and reward subnational officials for national performance, but also attribute responsibility for subnational performance to national authorities. The implications with respect to the impact of decentralized decision making on democratic accountability are decidedly mixed and anything but consistent with the argument that decentralization results in a closer match between citizen preferences and the allocation of public resources.

scholarly journals Electoral independence, dependence, or co -dependence?: A reassessment of second -order electoral expectations in subnational elections

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Palazzolo
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Electoral Participation ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Institutional Economic ◽  
Subnational Elections ◽  
Second Tier ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Electoral Expectations ◽  
E Mail

In the electoral hierarchy, subnational elections have frequently been relegated to second-order status, as are supranational elections (i.e., European Parliament elections). According to the predictions of the second-order electoral framework, subnational elections should be dependent on national trends, manifest substantially lower participation levels, exhibit anti-government swing and higher support for small and regional parties. However, as subnational governments gain increasing powers and jurisdictional competencies, the potential for greater electoral participation and/or divergent and complex electoral behaviors between the state and substate levels becomes more likely. This dissertation explores what political factors and attitudes affect the likelihood of second-order behavior in a specific set of subnational elections, namely second-tier subnational elections.The first part of the dissertation employs a large cross-national aggregate analysis of second-tier elections in twelve countries from 1980-2002. The principal hypothesis is that a variety of institutional, economic, election-specific, and contextual features affect differential participation and vote choice in second-tier contests. Initial descriptive statistics provide evidence that there are significant variations between and among second-tier units regarding levels of differential turnout, electoral incongruence or deviation, and anti-government swing. Multivariate models indicate that factors such as the level of subnational revenue-raising capacity, subnational electoral timing, and bicameralism (among others) exert significant power over differences in electoral participation and electoral choice in multilevel electoral environments.Individual case studies of subnational elections in Spain, Germany, and Finland further help to elucidate inter-country differences in second-order expectations. The case studies further provide evidence of individual-level factors that impact the incidence of national political dominance, interlevel vote switching and participation in these contests. In particular, the surveys indicate that individual political attitudes and preferences predispose individuals in different manners to participate in second-tier elections, to focus more on national or subnational issues in their subnational electoral decisions, and to vote differently based on the arena in question. The individual and aggregate findings both point to the fact that the stakes of the election (both perceived and actual) directly affect the nature of electoral behavior. The dissertation's findings have distinct implications and consequences for broader political issues of decentralization, democracy, accountability, and representation.-- Chris Palazzolo, PhDHead of Collection ManagementSocial Sciences LibrarianAdjunct Professor, Department of Political ScienceEmory UniversityAtlanta, GA [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>404-727-0143________________________________This e-mail message (including any attachments) is for the sole use ofthe intended recipient(s) and may contain confidential and privilegedinformation. If the reader of this message is not the intendedrecipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distributionor copying of this message (including any attachments) is strictlyprohibited.If you have received this message in error, please contactthe sender by reply e-mail message and destroy all copies of theoriginal message (including attachments).

Multi-Level Electoral Politics

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sona N. Golder ◽  
Ignacio Lago ◽  
André Blais ◽  
Elisabeth Gidengil ◽  
Thomas Gschwend
Keyword(s):  
Level Structure ◽  
National Level ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Second Order ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Party Elites ◽  
Subnational Elections ◽  
The Media ◽  
Multi Level

National-level elections receive more attention from scholars and the media than elections at other levels, even though in many European countries the importance of both regional and European levels of government has grown in recent years. The growing importance of multiple electoral arenas suggests that scholars should be cautious about examining single levels in isolation. Taking the multi-level structure of electoral politics seriously requires a re-examination of how the incentives created by electoral institutions affect the behaviour of voters and party elites. The standard approach to analysing multi-level elections is the second-order election model, in which national elections are considered to be first-order elections while other elections are second order. However, this model does not provide micro mechanisms that determine how elections in one arena affect those in another, or explain variations in individual voting behaviour. The objective of this book is to explain how party and voter behaviour in a given election is affected by the existence of multiple electoral arenas. This book uses original qualitative and quantitative data to examine European, national, and subnational elections in France, Germany, and Spain from 2011 to 2015. Party mobilization efforts across multiple electoral arenas are examined, as well as decisions by individual voters with respect to turnout, strategic voting, and accountability. This book provides the first systematic analysis of multi-level electoral politics at three different levels across multiple countries.

The President, Referendum Voting, and Subnational Elections in the United States

1991 ◽  
Vol 85 (4) ◽  
pp. 1177-1192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis M. Simon ◽  
Charles W. Ostrom ◽  
Robin F. Marra
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
The United States ◽  
Seemingly Unrelated Regressions ◽  
Common Response ◽  
Subnational Elections ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Random Shocks ◽  
Voting Model

This research is designed to generalize a referendum voting model and investigate its ability to account for the aggregate outcomes of elections for the House, Senate, governorships, and upper and lower chambers of state legislatures. Our analysis shows that these outcomes are influenced by the same systematic short- and long-term forces. In addition to this common referendum structure, the analysis reveals that there is a common response to random shocks, a subtle form of interdependence found in systems of seemingly unrelated regressions.

Disentangling peripheral parties’ issue packages in subnational elections

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 240-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Alonso ◽  
Laura Cabeza ◽  
Braulio Gómez
Keyword(s):  
Subnational Elections ◽  
Peripheral Parties
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