scholarly journals The effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19-related mortality: A generalized synthetic control approach across 169 countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Mader ◽  
Tobias Rüttenauer
Keyword(s):  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
Treatment Timing ◽  
Government Response ◽  
Treatment Variation ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Analyse Data ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Background: Most governments have introduced various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in response to the pandemic outbreak of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) since early 2020. While NPIs aim at avoiding fatalities related to COVID-19, the previous literature on their efficacy has focused on infections and on data of the first half of 2020. Still, findings of early NPI studies may be subject to underreporting and missing timeliness of reporting of cases. Moreover, the low variation in treatment timing during the first wave makes identification of robust treatment effects difficult.Methods: To circumvent problems of reporting and treatment variation, we analyse data on daily confirmed COVID-19-related deaths per capita from Our World in Data, and on 10 different NPIs from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker for 169 countries from 1st July 2020 to 31st May 2021. To identify the causal effects of introducing NPIs on COVID-19-related confirmed fatalities per capita, we apply the generalized synthetic control (GSC) method to each NPI, while controlling for the remaining NPIs, weather conditions, vaccinations, and NPI-residualized COVID-19 cases.Findings: We do not find substantial and consistent mitigating effects of any NPI under investigation on COVID-19-related deaths per capita. We see a tentative change in the trend of COVID-19-related deaths around 30 days after workplace closing, public transport closing, and stay at home rules have been implemented, but none of them exerts a statistically significant effect.Interpretation: The study enhances the literature on the effectivity of NPIs with respect to the time frame, the number of countries, and the analytical approach. The results provide further guidance to judge the proportionality of NPIs.

scholarly journals Impact of drought on crime in California: A synthetic control approach

PLoS ONE ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. e0185629
Author(s):  
Dana E. Goin ◽  
Kara E. Rudolph ◽  
Jennifer Ahern
Keyword(s):  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Approach

Energy efficiency path planning for a quadrotor aerial vehicle

2021 ◽  
pp. 014233122110585
Author(s):  
Fouad Yacef ◽  
Nassim Rizoug ◽  
Laid Degaa ◽  
Omar Bouhali ◽  
Mustapha Hamerlain
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Optimal Control Problem ◽  
Control Problem ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
Mission Success ◽  
Aerial Vehicle ◽  
Vehicle Trajectory ◽  
Point To Point

Unmanned aerial vehicles are used today in many real-world applications. In all these applications, the vehicle endurance (flight time) is an important constraint that affects mission success. This study investigates the limitations of embedded energy for a quadrotor aerial vehicle. We consider a quadrotor simple tasked to travel from an initial hover configuration to a final hover configuration. In order to have a precise approximation of the consumed energy, we propose a power consumption model with battery dynamic, motor dynamic, and rotor efficiency function. We then introduce an optimization algorithm to minimize the energy consumption during quadrotor aerial vehicle mission. The proposed algorithm is based on an optimal control problem formulated for the quadrotor model and solved using nonlinear programming. In the optimal control problem, we seek to find control inputs (rotor velocity) and vehicle trajectory between initial and final configurations that minimize the consumed energy during a point-to-point mission. We extensively test in simulation experiments the proposed algorithm under normal and windy weather conditions. We compare the proposed optimization method with a nonlinear adaptive control approach to highlight the saved amount of energy.

Do Targeted Business Subsidies Improve Income and Reduce Poverty? A Synthetic Control Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 351-375
Author(s):  
Jacob Bundrick ◽  
Weici Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
County Level ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
Incentive Programs ◽  
Subsidy Program ◽  
Capita Personal Income

Interstate competition for economic development has led many states to adopt targeted economic development incentive programs known as deal-closing funds. Deal-closing funds allow state officials to provide discretionary cash grants to select businesses to attract and retain economic development projects. However, whether these targeted business subsidies increase prosperity in the local economy remains unclear. The authors use evidence from Arkansas’s Quick Action Closing Fund to analyze how effective deal-closing funds are at increasing incomes and decreasing poverty. Specifically, the causal effects of the Quick Action Closing Fund on Arkansas’s county-level per capita personal income and poverty rates are estimated using a synthetic control approach. The results largely suggest that the business subsidy program fails to increase incomes and lower poverty rates over the long term, at least at the county level. These findings should serve as a caution to policy makers who wish to improve incomes and poverty rates with targeted business subsidies.

scholarly journals Do Democratic Economies Grow Faster? The Case of Asia vs. the EU

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 115
Author(s):  
Samuel D. Barrows
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Capita Income ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Per Capita Income ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Economic Growth Rates ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

The dynamics of the five fastest growing GDP per capita economies in Asia and the EU are studied between 2010 and 2014. This time frame was selected in order to avoid the height of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, but to include the stimulus and recovery periods which occurred afterward. The intent was not to compare the recoveries or the impact of the stimulus programs. The intent was to compare the economic growth rates of the two groups and also the absolute per capita income along with five topic areas on economies including: configuration, utilization, investments, demographics, and outcomes. A total of twenty measurements are used for assessment from the World Bank databank website. The findings are that the Asian economies grew faster while the EU economies had a higher per capita income. The workforces of the Asia economies are also younger and more flexible whereas the workforces of the EU economies are older, but more educated. Discussions include the links between effective governments and economic development and the links between democracy and economic levels.

scholarly journals The effect of bariatric surgery on health care costs: A synthetic control approach using Bayesian structural time series

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (11) ◽  
pp. 1293-1307
Author(s):  
Christoph F. Kurz ◽  
Martin Rehm ◽  
Rolf Holle ◽  
Christina Teuner ◽  
Michael Laxy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bariatric Surgery ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Health Care Costs ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
Structural Time Series ◽  
Structural Time ◽  
Care Costs

scholarly journals Autocratisation and universal health coverage: synthetic control study

BMJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. m4040 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Wigley ◽  
Joseph L Dieleman ◽  
Tara Templin ◽  
John Everett Mumford ◽  
Thomas J Bollyky
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Population Health ◽  
Universal Health Coverage ◽  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Health Coverage ◽  
Effective Coverage ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Universal Health

Abstract Objective To assess the relation between autocratisation—substantial decreases in democratic traits (free and fair elections, freedom of civil and political association, and freedom of expression)—and countries’ population health outcomes and progress toward universal health coverage (UHC). Design Synthetic control analysis. Setting and country selection Global sample of countries for all years from 1989 to 2019, split into two categories: 17 treatment countries that started autocratising during 2000 to 2010, and 119 control countries that never autocratised from 1989 to 2019. The treatment countries comprised low and middle income nations and represent all world regions except North America and western Europe. A weighted combination of control countries was used to construct synthetic controls for each treatment country. This statistical method is especially well suited to population level studies when random assignment is infeasible and sufficiently similar comparators are not available. The method was originally developed in economics and political science to assess the impact of policies and events, and it is now increasingly used in epidemiology. Main outcome measures HIV-free life expectancy at age 5 years, UHC effective coverage index (0-100 point scale), and out-of-pocket spending on health per capita. All outcome variables are for the period 1989 to 2019. Results Autocratising countries underperformed for all three outcome variables in the 10 years after the onset of autocratisation, despite some improvements in life expectancy, UHC effective coverage index, and out-of-pocket spending on health. On average, HIV-free life expectancy at age 5 years increased by 2.2% (from 64.7 to 66.1 years) during the 10 years after the onset of autocratisation. This study estimated that it would have increased by 3.5% (95% confidence interval 3.3% to 3.6%, P<0.001) (from 64.7 to 66.9 years) in the absence of autocratisation. On average, the UHC effective coverage index increased by 11.9% (from 42.5 to 47.6 points) during the 10 years after the onset of autocratisation. This study estimated that it would have increased by 20.2% (95% confidence interval 19.6% to 21.2%, P<0.001) (from 42.5 to 51.1 points) in the absence of autocratisation. Finally, on average, out-of-pocket spending on health per capita increased by 10.0% (from $4.00 (£3.1; €3.4) to $4.4, log transformed) during the 10 years after the onset of autocratisation. This study estimated that it would have increased by only 4.4% (95% confidence interval 3.9% to 4.6%, P<0.001) (from $4.0 to $4.2, log transformed) in the absence of autocratisation. Conclusions Autocratising countries had worse than estimated life expectancy, effective health service coverage, and levels of out-of-pocket spending on health. These results suggest that the noticeable increase in the number of countries that are experiencing democratic erosion in recent years is hindering population health gains and progress toward UHC. Global health institutions will need to adjust their policy recommendations and activities to obtain the best possible results in those countries with a diminishing democratic incentive to provide quality healthcare to populations.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document