The Cuban revolution and infant mortality: A synthetic control approach

2020 ◽  
pp. 101376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Geloso ◽  
Jamie Bologna Pavlik
Keyword(s):  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Cuban Revolution ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Approach

scholarly journals Impact of drought on crime in California: A synthetic control approach

PLoS ONE ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. e0185629
Author(s):  
Dana E. Goin ◽  
Kara E. Rudolph ◽  
Jennifer Ahern
Keyword(s):  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Approach

scholarly journals The effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19-related mortality: A generalized synthetic control approach across 169 countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Mader ◽  
Tobias Rüttenauer
Keyword(s):  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
Treatment Timing ◽  
Government Response ◽  
Treatment Variation ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Analyse Data ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Background: Most governments have introduced various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in response to the pandemic outbreak of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) since early 2020. While NPIs aim at avoiding fatalities related to COVID-19, the previous literature on their efficacy has focused on infections and on data of the first half of 2020. Still, findings of early NPI studies may be subject to underreporting and missing timeliness of reporting of cases. Moreover, the low variation in treatment timing during the first wave makes identification of robust treatment effects difficult.Methods: To circumvent problems of reporting and treatment variation, we analyse data on daily confirmed COVID-19-related deaths per capita from Our World in Data, and on 10 different NPIs from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker for 169 countries from 1st July 2020 to 31st May 2021. To identify the causal effects of introducing NPIs on COVID-19-related confirmed fatalities per capita, we apply the generalized synthetic control (GSC) method to each NPI, while controlling for the remaining NPIs, weather conditions, vaccinations, and NPI-residualized COVID-19 cases.Findings: We do not find substantial and consistent mitigating effects of any NPI under investigation on COVID-19-related deaths per capita. We see a tentative change in the trend of COVID-19-related deaths around 30 days after workplace closing, public transport closing, and stay at home rules have been implemented, but none of them exerts a statistically significant effect.Interpretation: The study enhances the literature on the effectivity of NPIs with respect to the time frame, the number of countries, and the analytical approach. The results provide further guidance to judge the proportionality of NPIs.

Do Targeted Business Subsidies Improve Income and Reduce Poverty? A Synthetic Control Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 351-375
Author(s):  
Jacob Bundrick ◽  
Weici Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
County Level ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
Incentive Programs ◽  
Subsidy Program ◽  
Capita Personal Income

Interstate competition for economic development has led many states to adopt targeted economic development incentive programs known as deal-closing funds. Deal-closing funds allow state officials to provide discretionary cash grants to select businesses to attract and retain economic development projects. However, whether these targeted business subsidies increase prosperity in the local economy remains unclear. The authors use evidence from Arkansas’s Quick Action Closing Fund to analyze how effective deal-closing funds are at increasing incomes and decreasing poverty. Specifically, the causal effects of the Quick Action Closing Fund on Arkansas’s county-level per capita personal income and poverty rates are estimated using a synthetic control approach. The results largely suggest that the business subsidy program fails to increase incomes and lower poverty rates over the long term, at least at the county level. These findings should serve as a caution to policy makers who wish to improve incomes and poverty rates with targeted business subsidies.

scholarly journals The effect of bariatric surgery on health care costs: A synthetic control approach using Bayesian structural time series

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (11) ◽  
pp. 1293-1307
Author(s):  
Christoph F. Kurz ◽  
Martin Rehm ◽  
Rolf Holle ◽  
Christina Teuner ◽  
Michael Laxy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bariatric Surgery ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Health Care Costs ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
Structural Time Series ◽  
Structural Time ◽  
Care Costs

scholarly journals Quantifying the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 outbreak: The case of Sweden

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 323-344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sang-Wook (Stanley) Cho
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Framework Analysis ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Elderly Cohort ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
The Impact

Summary This paper estimates the effect of nonpharmaceutical intervention policies on public health during the COVID-19 outbreak by considering a counterfactual case for Sweden. Using a synthetic control approach, I find that strict initial lockdown measures play an important role in limiting the spread of the COVID-19 infection, as the infection cases in Sweden would have been reduced by almost 75 percent had its policymakers followed stricter containment policies. As people dynamically adjust their behaviour in response to information and policies, the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions becomes visible, with a time lag of around 5 weeks. Supplementary robustness checks and an alternative difference-in-differences framework analysis do not fundamentally alter the main conclusions. Finally, extending the analysis to excess mortality, I find that the lockdown measures would have been associated with a lower excess mortality rate in Sweden by 25 percentage points, with a steep age gradient of 29 percentage points for the most vulnerable elderly cohort. The outcome of this study can assist policymakers in laying out future guidelines to further protect public health, as well as facilitate plans for economic recovery.

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