scholarly journals Exploring the Effects of Creating Small High Schools on Daily Attendance: A Statistical Case Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthijs Koopmans
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
High Schools ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Policy Research ◽  
Initial Increase ◽  
Post Intervention ◽  
Small High Schools ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
School Year ◽  
Daily Attendance

Does creating small high schools have a beneficial impact on daily attendance? This question was addressed using time series analysis to examine the case of one urban transfer high school that serves students who previously dropped out of school. This analytical approach is uniquely suitable to examine the dynamical processes characterizing stability and transformation in the system. This school reduced its size from enrolling approximately 900 students up to and through the 2009-2010 school year to about 250 students afterward. We looked at whether attendance was higher after the intervention and whether it was more stable. It turns out that the attendance trajectories over a seven-year period show high volatility prior to the reduction in school size but are more stable afterward. The initial increase in daily attendance at the onset of the intervention is not maintained, but increases are observed later. The study illustrates the relevance of time series analysis for educational policy research as well as the use of complexity theory to fully appreciate the nature of the post intervention changes.

scholarly journals Decrease in blood donation rates in Japan: a time series analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yutaka Owari ◽  
Nobuyuki Miyatake ◽  
Hiromi Suzuki
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Blood Donation ◽  
Initial Value ◽  
Post Intervention ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Average Analysis ◽  
Slope Difference ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT: Objective: To clarify that one of the causes for the decrease in blood donation (BD) rates was the introduction of the 400 ml BD program in 1986. Method: BP rates were monitored over 48 years (1965-2012) and were divided into pre- and post-intervention periods prior to analysis. An interrupted time series analysis was performed using annual data on BD rates, and the impact of the 400 ml BD program was investigated. Results: In a raw series, autoregressive integrated moving average analysis revealed a significant change in slope between the pre- and post-intervention periods in which the intervention factor was the 400 ml BD program. The parameters were as follows: intercept (initial value) = 0.315, confidence interval (CI) = (0.029, 0.601); slope (pre-intervention) = 0.316, CI = (0.293, 0.340); slope difference = -0.435, CI = (-0.462, -0.408); slope (post-intervention) = -0.119, CI = (-0.135, -0.103); all, p = 0.000; goodness-of-fit, R2 = 0.963. After adjusting for stationarity and autocorrelation, the parameters were as follows: intercept (initial value) = -0.699, CI = (-0.838, -0.560); slope (pre-intervention) = 0.136, CI = (0.085, 0.187); slope difference = -0.165, CI = (-0.247, -0.083); slope (post-intervention) = -0.029, CI = (-0.070, 0.012); all, p = 0.000 (except for slope (post-intervention), p = 0.170); goodness-of-fit, R2 = 0.930. Conclusion: One of the causes for decrease in BD rates may be due to the introduction of the 400 ml BD program in Japan.

scholarly journals England's Lockdown vs. Sweden's Herd Immunity: A Comparison of the Daily New COVID-19 Cases and Related Deaths Using Comparative Interrupted Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moaath Mustafa Ali ◽  
Yazan Samhouri ◽  
Marwa Sabha ◽  
Lynna Alnimer
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Post Intervention ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Rebound Increase ◽  
Related Mortality

Background: There is a lack of empirical evidence that lockdowns decrease daily cases of COVID-19 and related mortality compared to herd immunity. England implemented a delayed lockdown on March 23, 2020, but Sweden did not. We aim to examine the effect of lockdown on daily COVID-19 cases and related deaths during the first 100 days post-lockdown. Methods: We compared daily cases of COVID-19 infection and related mortality in England and Sweden before and after lockdown intervention using a comparative-interrupted time series analysis. The period included was from COVID-19 pandemic onset till June 30, 2020. Results: The adjusted-rate of daily COVID-19 infections was eight cases/10,000,000 person higher in England than Sweden before lockdown order (95% CI: 2-14, P=0.01). On the day of intervention (lagged lockdown), England had 693 more COVID-19 cases/10,000,000 person compared to Sweden (95% CI: 467-920, P<0.001). Compared to the pre-intervention period, the adjusted daily confirmed cases rate decreased by 19 cases/ 10,000,000 person compared to Sweden (95% CI: 13-26, P<0.001). There was a rate excess of 1.5 daily deaths/ 10,000,000 person in England compared to Sweden pre-intervention (95% CI: 1-2, P<0.001). The increased mortality rate resulted in 50 excess deaths/ 10,000,000 person related to COVID-19 in England compared to Sweden on the day of lockdown (95% CI: 30-71, P<0.001). Post-intervention, the rate of daily deaths in England decreased by two deaths/ 10,000,000 person compared to Sweden (95% CI: 1-3, P<0.001). During phases one and two of lockdown lifting in England, there was no rebound increase in daily cases or deaths compared to Sweden. Conclusion: The lockdown order implemented in England on March 23, 2020, effectively decreased the daily new cases rate and related mortality compared to Sweden. There was no short-term increase in COVID-19 cases and related-deaths after the phases one and two of the lifting of restrictions in England compared to Sweden. This study provides empirical, comparative evidence that lockdowns slow the spread of COVID-19 in communities compared to herd immunity.

scholarly journals Fall of Community-Acquired Pneumonia in Children Following COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: A Time Series Analysis

Pathogens ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1375
Author(s):  
Alexis Rybak ◽  
David Dawei Yang ◽  
Cécile Schrimpf ◽  
Romain Guedj ◽  
Corinne Levy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Pediatric Emergency ◽  
Community Acquired Pneumonia ◽  
Intervention Period ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Post Intervention ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented to reduce the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A first national lockdown was decided in France on the 17 March 2020. These measures had an impact on other viral and non-viral infectious diseases. We aimed to assess this impact on community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in children. We performed a quasi-experimental interrupted time series analysis. We used data from a French prospective surveillance system of six pediatric emergency departments (PEDs). All visits from 1 January 2017 to 31 December 2020 were included. Pre-intervention period was before 17 March 2020 and post-intervention period was after 18 March 2020. We estimated the impact on the weekly number of visits for CAP and CAP admission using quasi-Poisson regression modeling. A total of 981,782 PEDs visits were analyzed; among them, 8318 visits were associated with CAP, and 1774 of these were followed by a hospital admission. A major decrease was observed for CAP visits (–79.7% 95% CI [–84.3; –73.8]; p < 0.0001), and CAP admission (–71.3% 95 CI [–78.8; –61.1]; p < 0.0001). We observed a dramatic decrease of CAP in children following NPIs implementation. Further studies are required to assess the long-term impact of these measures.

Estimating Perturbation and Meta-Stability in the Daily Attendance Rates of Six Small High Schools

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (03) ◽  
pp. 1750021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthijs Koopmans
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
High Schools ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Attendance Rates ◽  
Attendance Rate ◽  
Small High Schools ◽  
Educational Literature ◽  
Daily Attendance ◽  
Vantage Points ◽  
The Impact

This paper discusses the daily attendance rates in six small high schools over a ten-year period and evaluates how stable those rates are. “Stability” is approached from two vantage points: pulse models are fitted to estimate the impact of sudden perturbations and their reverberation through the series, and Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) techniques are used to detect dependencies over the long range of the series. The analyses are meant to (1) exemplify the utility of time series approaches in educational research, which lacks a time series tradition, (2) discuss some time series features that seem to be particular to daily attendance rate trajectories such as the distinct downward pull coming from extreme observations, and (3) present an analytical approach to handle the important yet distinct patterns of variability that can be found in these data. The analysis also illustrates why the assumption of stability that underlies the habitual reporting of weekly, monthly and yearly averages in the educational literature is questionable, as it reveals dynamical processes (perturbation, meta-stability) that remain hidden in such summaries.

Timing Is Everything: The Utility of Time-Series Analysis to Capture Causality in Qualitative Case-Based Policy Inquiry

2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 296-314
Author(s):  
Monica Reid Kerrigan ◽  
Ane Turner Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Meaning Making ◽  
Belief Systems ◽  
Policy Research ◽  
Qualitative Case Studies ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Policy Inquiry

While policy researchers call for new approaches to support the analysis of complex policies, the dominance of experimental and quasi-experimental designs limits the field’s possibilities. Innovative yet rigorous qualitative methods have been overlooked, despite strong arguments by seminal qualitative methodologists about the appropriateness of qualitative research for inquiry situated in particular contexts and that recognizes the influence of time, place, people, and belief systems on outcomes. We argue that qualitative time-series analysis is one such overlooked approach that has greater potential for educational policy research because of its ability to address complexity in causal relationships. This article contributes to the policy and methodological literature in two ways: First, by providing a synthesis of available methodological literature on qualitative time-series analysis; and second, by providing two illustrative qualitative case studies that used different time-series approaches to examine policy development over time while accounting for the contextual factors and meaning-making that inform policy and shape the policy process. The article concludes with a discussion of the contribution of qualitative time-series analysis for policy research with examples from the cases.

scholarly journals The impact of stringent prescription-only antimicrobial sale regulation (Schedule H1) in India: an interrupted time series analysis, 2008–18

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Habib Hasan Farooqui ◽  
Sakthivel Selvaraj ◽  
Aashna Mehta ◽  
Manu Raj Mathur
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Post Intervention ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Objectives To assess the impact of Schedule H1 regulation notified and implemented in 2014 under the amended rules of the Drugs and Cosmetics Act (DCA), 1940 on the sale of antimicrobials in the private sector in India. Methods The dataset was obtained from the Indian pharmaceutical sales database, PharmaTrac. The outcome measure was the sales volume of antimicrobials in standard units (SUs). A quasi-experimental research design—interrupted time series analysis—was used to detect the impact of the intervention. Results We observed a substantial rise in antimicrobial consumption during 2008–18 in the private sector in India, both for antimicrobials regulated under Schedule H1 as well as outside the regulation. Key results suggested that post-intervention there was an immediate reduction (level change) in use of Schedule H1 antimicrobials by 10% (P = 0.007), followed by a sustained decline (trend change) in utilization by 9% (P &gt; 0.000) compared with the pre-intervention trend. Segregated analysis on different antimicrobial classes suggests a sharp drop (level changes) and sustained decline (trend changes) in utilization post-intervention compared with the pre-intervention trend. Our findings remained robust on carrying out sensitivity analysis with the oral anti-diabetics market as a control. Post-intervention, the average monthly difference between antimicrobials under Schedule H1 and the control group witnessed an immediate increase of 16.3% (P = 0.10) followed by a sustained reduction of 0.5% (P = 0.13) compared with the pre-intervention scenario. Conclusions Though the regulation had a positive impact in terms of reducing sales of antimicrobials notified under the regulation, optimizing the effectiveness of such stand-alone policies will be limited unless accompanied by a broader set of interventions.

scholarly journals 2064. Applying Human Factors and Ergonomics to Inform a Successful Fluoroquinolone Restriction Intervention: A Mixed Methods Pilot Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. S695-S696
Author(s):  
Jessica Tischendorf ◽  
Matthew Brunner ◽  
Lucas Schulz ◽  
Anna K Barker ◽  
Alexander Lepak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Mixed Methods ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Readmission Rate ◽  
Front Line ◽  
Post Intervention ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Restriction Policy ◽  
Research Grant

Abstract Background Antimicrobial stewardship programs (ASPs) can reduce the incidence of hospital-onset Clostridioides difficile infection (HO-CDI) by limiting unnecessary exposure to high-risk antibiotics, including fluoroquinolones (FQ). However, restriction policies are challenging to implement and sustain. In a mixed methods study, we explored the barriers, facilitators and efficacy of an FQ restriction policy to reduce HO-CDIs among high-risk patients. Methods Our ASP instituted a pilot FQ restriction policy in our ICU and solid-organ transplant wards. We evaluated 24 months of pre- and post-intervention data, including: FQ and alternative agent use, length of stay (LOS), readmission rate, mortality and HO-CDI. We conducted 12 semi-structured interviews with front-line providers, applying the Systems Engineering Initiative for Patient Safety framework to examine perceptions of FQ use, prescribing indications, perceived relationships between FQ use and HO-CDI, and barriers imposed by FQ restrictions. Time-series analysis was performed to evaluate FQ and HO-CDI data. Results FQ use decreased from an average of 111.6 days of therapy (DOT) per 1,000 patient-days pre-intervention to 19.8 DOT/1,000 patient-days (P < 0.0001). Average readmission rate, LOS on pilot units, total antibiotic use, and use of cefepime decreased after FQ restriction. Conversely, use of ceftriaxone, aminoglycosides and piperacillin–tazobactam all increased. The average HO-CDI rate was significantly lower post-intervention, although time series analysis showed a post-intervention increase in the trend in infection rate compared with the pre-intervention trend. Qualitative analysis of interviews revealed β-lactam allergy and pending discharge were barriers to FQ restriction; a patient’s history of CDI and pharmacist involvement in antimicrobial decision-making facilitated FQ restriction. Conclusion An FQ restriction policy significantly decreased FQ use without adversely affecting readmission rate, LOS or mortality. Knowledge of barriers and facilitators to FQ use optimization among front-line staff can inform future successful ASP interventions. Further investigation into the effect of FQ restriction on HO-CDI is needed. Disclosures Alexander Lepak, MD, Paratek Pharmaceuticals: Research Grant; Tetraphase Pharmaceuticals: Research Grant.

scholarly journals Decreasing Boarders in the Emergency Department By Reducing Clerical Work in the Discharge Process of In-Hospital Patients – An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Marques Moroço ◽  
Antonio Pazin-Filho
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Digital Signature ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Post Intervention ◽  
Clerical Work ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Hospital Patients

Abstract Background: Emergency Department (ED) boarding is related to in-hospital patients' discharge. New techniques implemented in hospital institutions, such as digital signature, offer an improvement on these processes.Goals: Evaluate the impact of expediting patient's discharge after medical orders with the number of patients diverted to ED.Methods: We conducted a quasi-experimental study before and after an intervention. It consisted of an encrypted digital signature used to reduce clerical work and expedite the patient's release from the institution after medical discharge. We used Interrupted Time Series Analysis based on administrative data (number of hospital discharge, bed turnover, the time between medical discharge and the appointment's closing) from 2011 to 2019 using.Results: The interrupted time series analysis for the time from medical order to virtually hospital discharge showed an immediate change in level (Coefficient β2 -3.6 hours - 95% confidence interval -3.9; -3.4 - Lag1), but not a difference in the slope of the behavior of the post-intervention curve (β3 0.0005 coefficient - 95% confidence interval -0.0040; 0.0050 - Lag1). For the number of diverged patients to ED, we observed no immediate change in level (Coefficient β2 -0.84 patients - 95% confidence interval -0.33; 0.16 - Lag1), but a difference in the slope of the behavior of the post-intervention curve (β3 0.0005 coefficient - 95% confidence interval -0.0040; 0.0050 - Lag1).Conclusion: Reducing clerical work and so expediting patient discharge was associated with a decrease of potential boarders to ED.

Eradication of Staphylococcus aureus post-sternotomy mediastinitis following the implementation of universal pre-operative nasal decontamination with mupirocin: an interrupted time-series analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael San-Juan ◽  
Consuelo Alejandra Gotor-Pérez ◽  
Francisco López-Medrano ◽  
Mario Fernández-Ruiz ◽  
David Lora ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Staphylococcus Aureus ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Relative Reduction ◽  
Intervention Period ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Post Intervention ◽  
Post Intervention Period ◽  
Series Analysis

Abstract Background Although pre-surgical nasal decontamination with mupirocin (NDM) has been advocated as a measure for preventing post-surgical mediastinitis (PSM) due to Staphylococcus aureus, this strategy is not universally recommended due to the lack of robust supporting evidence. We aimed to evaluate the role of pre-operative NDM in the annual incidence of S. aureus PSM at our institution. Methods An interrupted time-series analysis, with autoregressive error model, was applied to our single-center cohort by comparing pre-intervention (1990-2003) and post-intervention period (2005 to 2018). Logistic regression was performed to analyze risk factors for S. aureus PSM. Findings 12,236 sternotomy procedures were analyzed (6,370 [52.1%] and 5,866 [47.9%] in the pre-intervention and post-intervention periods, respectively). The mean annual percentage adherence to NDM estimated over the post-interventional period was 90.2%. Only four out of 127 total cases of S. aureus PSM occurred during the 14-years post-intervention period (0.68/1,000 sternotomies vs. 19.31/1,000 in pre-interventional period [p&lt;0.0001]). Interrupted time-series analysis demonstrated a statistically significant annual reduction of S. aureus PSM trend of –9.85 cases per 1,000 sternotomies (-13.17 to -6.5, P-value&lt; 0·0001) in 2005, with a decreasing trend maintained over the following five years with an estimated relative reduction of 84.8% (95% CI: 89·25 to 74·09). Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was the single independent risk factor for S. aureus PSM (odds ratio: 3.7; 95% CI: 1.72-7.93) and was equally distributed in patients undergoing sternotomy during pre or post-intervention periods. Interpretation Our experience suggests that the implementation of pre-operative NDM reduces significantly the incidence of S. aureus PSM.

scholarly journals England's Lockdown vs. Sweden's Herd Immunity: A Comparison of the Daily New COVID-19 Cases and Related Deaths Using Comparative Interrupted Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moaath K. Mustafa Ali ◽  
Yazan Samhouri ◽  
Marwa Sabha ◽  
Lynna Alnimer
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Post Intervention ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Rebound Increase ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract Background: There is a lack of empirical evidence that lockdowns decrease daily cases of COVID-19 and related mortality compared to herd immunity. England implemented a delayed lockdown on March 23, 2020, but Sweden did not. We aim to examine the effect of lockdown on daily COVID-19 cases and related deaths during the first 100 days post-lockdown.Methods: We compared daily cases of COVID-19 infection and related mortality in England and Sweden before and after lockdown intervention using a comparative-interrupted time series analysis. The period included was from COVID-19 pandemic onset till June 30, 2020.Results: The adjusted-rate of daily COVID-19 infections was eight cases/10,000,000 person higher in England than Sweden before lockdown order (95% CI: 2-14, P=0.01). On the day of intervention (lagged lockdown), England had 693 more COVID-19 cases/10,000,000 person compared to Sweden (95% CI: 467-920, P<0.001). Compared to the pre-intervention period, the adjusted daily confirmed cases rate decreased by 19 cases/ 10,000,000 person compared to Sweden (95% CI: 13-26, P<0.001). There was a rate excess of 1.5 daily deaths/ 10,000,000 person in England compared to Sweden pre-intervention (95% CI: 1-2, P<0.001). The increased mortality rate resulted in 50 excess deaths/ 10,000,000 person related to COVID-19 in England compared to Sweden on the day of lockdown (95% CI: 30-71, P<0.001). Post-intervention, the rate of daily deaths in England decreased by two deaths/ 10,000,000 person compared to Sweden (95% CI: 1-3, P<0.001). During phases one and two of lockdown lifting in England, there was no rebound increase in daily cases or deaths compared to Sweden. Conclusion: The lockdown order implemented in England on March 23, 2020, effectively decreased the daily new cases rate and related mortality compared to Sweden. There was no short-term increase in COVID-19 cases and related-deaths after the phases one and two of the lifting of restrictions in England compared to Sweden. This study provides empirical, comparative evidence that lockdowns slow the spread of COVID-19 in communities compared to herd immunity.

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