scholarly journals Fall of Community-Acquired Pneumonia in Children Following COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: A Time Series Analysis

Pathogens ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1375
Author(s):  
Alexis Rybak ◽  
David Dawei Yang ◽  
Cécile Schrimpf ◽  
Romain Guedj ◽  
Corinne Levy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Pediatric Emergency ◽  
Community Acquired Pneumonia ◽  
Intervention Period ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Post Intervention ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented to reduce the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A first national lockdown was decided in France on the 17 March 2020. These measures had an impact on other viral and non-viral infectious diseases. We aimed to assess this impact on community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in children. We performed a quasi-experimental interrupted time series analysis. We used data from a French prospective surveillance system of six pediatric emergency departments (PEDs). All visits from 1 January 2017 to 31 December 2020 were included. Pre-intervention period was before 17 March 2020 and post-intervention period was after 18 March 2020. We estimated the impact on the weekly number of visits for CAP and CAP admission using quasi-Poisson regression modeling. A total of 981,782 PEDs visits were analyzed; among them, 8318 visits were associated with CAP, and 1774 of these were followed by a hospital admission. A major decrease was observed for CAP visits (–79.7% 95% CI [–84.3; –73.8]; p < 0.0001), and CAP admission (–71.3% 95 CI [–78.8; –61.1]; p < 0.0001). We observed a dramatic decrease of CAP in children following NPIs implementation. Further studies are required to assess the long-term impact of these measures.

scholarly journals Did the ban on serving raw beef liver in restaurants decrease Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli infection in Japan?: an interrupted time-series analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kentaro Iwata ◽  
Michihiko Goto
Keyword(s):  
Escherichia Coli ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Intervention Period ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Beef Liver ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) is an important pathogen that causes diarrhea, hemorrhagic colitis, and hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS). After an EHEC outbreak involving uncooked beef, serving raw beef liver dishes at restaurants was completely banned starting on July 1, 2012 in Japan. However, its long-term associations with the incidence rates of EHEC infections have never been assessed by formal interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA). Methods A retrospective cohort study to assess the impact of banning raw beef liver provision at restaurants was conducted. The weekly incidence of asymptomatic and symptomatic EHEC infections, the incidence of HUS, and deaths were extracted from the national reportable diseases database from January 2008 to December 2017. ITSA was conducted to evaluate the impact of banning raw beef liver from July 2012. To account for a potential simultaneous external effect, the additional regulation on raw beef red meat handling (implemented in May 2011) and the seasonality were also incorporated into the model. Results There were 32,179 asymptomatic and 21,250 symptomatic EHEC infections (including 717 HUS cases and 26 deaths) reported during the study period. During the pre-intervention period (before week 27, 2012), there were 0.45 asymptomatic EHEC infections per million-persons per week. The mean post-intervention asymptomatic EHEC infections were 0.51 per million-persons per week. ITSA revealed no baseline trend or change in the intercept and trend (0.002 infections per million-persons per week, 95% Confidence interval − 0.03-0.04, p = 0.93, 1.22, CI -1.96-4.39, p = 0.45, and − 0.006, CI -0.003-0.02, p = 0.68, respectively). For symptomatic EHEC infections, there were 0.30 cases per million per week during the pre-intervention period, and it became 0.33 cases per million per week after the intervention. Time series modeling again did not show a significant baseline trend or changes in the intercept and trend (0.0005, CI -0.02-0.02, p = 0.96, 0.69, CI -1.75-3.12, p = 0.58, and − 0.003, CI -0.02-0.01, p = 0.76, respectively). Conclusion We did not find a statistically significant reduction in the overall incidence rates of both asymptomatic and symptomatic EHEC infections in Japan after implementing measures, including a ban on serving raw beef liver dishes in the restaurant industry.

scholarly journals The impact of stringent prescription-only antimicrobial sale regulation (Schedule H1) in India: an interrupted time series analysis, 2008–18

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Habib Hasan Farooqui ◽  
Sakthivel Selvaraj ◽  
Aashna Mehta ◽  
Manu Raj Mathur
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Post Intervention ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Objectives To assess the impact of Schedule H1 regulation notified and implemented in 2014 under the amended rules of the Drugs and Cosmetics Act (DCA), 1940 on the sale of antimicrobials in the private sector in India. Methods The dataset was obtained from the Indian pharmaceutical sales database, PharmaTrac. The outcome measure was the sales volume of antimicrobials in standard units (SUs). A quasi-experimental research design—interrupted time series analysis—was used to detect the impact of the intervention. Results We observed a substantial rise in antimicrobial consumption during 2008–18 in the private sector in India, both for antimicrobials regulated under Schedule H1 as well as outside the regulation. Key results suggested that post-intervention there was an immediate reduction (level change) in use of Schedule H1 antimicrobials by 10% (P = 0.007), followed by a sustained decline (trend change) in utilization by 9% (P &gt; 0.000) compared with the pre-intervention trend. Segregated analysis on different antimicrobial classes suggests a sharp drop (level changes) and sustained decline (trend changes) in utilization post-intervention compared with the pre-intervention trend. Our findings remained robust on carrying out sensitivity analysis with the oral anti-diabetics market as a control. Post-intervention, the average monthly difference between antimicrobials under Schedule H1 and the control group witnessed an immediate increase of 16.3% (P = 0.10) followed by a sustained reduction of 0.5% (P = 0.13) compared with the pre-intervention scenario. Conclusions Though the regulation had a positive impact in terms of reducing sales of antimicrobials notified under the regulation, optimizing the effectiveness of such stand-alone policies will be limited unless accompanied by a broader set of interventions.

Eradication of Staphylococcus aureus post-sternotomy mediastinitis following the implementation of universal pre-operative nasal decontamination with mupirocin: an interrupted time-series analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael San-Juan ◽  
Consuelo Alejandra Gotor-Pérez ◽  
Francisco López-Medrano ◽  
Mario Fernández-Ruiz ◽  
David Lora ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Staphylococcus Aureus ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Relative Reduction ◽  
Intervention Period ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Post Intervention ◽  
Post Intervention Period ◽  
Series Analysis

Abstract Background Although pre-surgical nasal decontamination with mupirocin (NDM) has been advocated as a measure for preventing post-surgical mediastinitis (PSM) due to Staphylococcus aureus, this strategy is not universally recommended due to the lack of robust supporting evidence. We aimed to evaluate the role of pre-operative NDM in the annual incidence of S. aureus PSM at our institution. Methods An interrupted time-series analysis, with autoregressive error model, was applied to our single-center cohort by comparing pre-intervention (1990-2003) and post-intervention period (2005 to 2018). Logistic regression was performed to analyze risk factors for S. aureus PSM. Findings 12,236 sternotomy procedures were analyzed (6,370 [52.1%] and 5,866 [47.9%] in the pre-intervention and post-intervention periods, respectively). The mean annual percentage adherence to NDM estimated over the post-interventional period was 90.2%. Only four out of 127 total cases of S. aureus PSM occurred during the 14-years post-intervention period (0.68/1,000 sternotomies vs. 19.31/1,000 in pre-interventional period [p&lt;0.0001]). Interrupted time-series analysis demonstrated a statistically significant annual reduction of S. aureus PSM trend of –9.85 cases per 1,000 sternotomies (-13.17 to -6.5, P-value&lt; 0·0001) in 2005, with a decreasing trend maintained over the following five years with an estimated relative reduction of 84.8% (95% CI: 89·25 to 74·09). Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was the single independent risk factor for S. aureus PSM (odds ratio: 3.7; 95% CI: 1.72-7.93) and was equally distributed in patients undergoing sternotomy during pre or post-intervention periods. Interpretation Our experience suggests that the implementation of pre-operative NDM reduces significantly the incidence of S. aureus PSM.

scholarly journals Does admission prevalence change after reconfiguration of inpatient services? An interrupted time series analysis of the impact of reconfiguration in five centres

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanne Martin ◽  
Edwin Amalraj Raja ◽  
Steve Turner
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Emergency Admission ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Emergency Admissions ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Inpatient Services ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Admission Prevalence

Abstract Background Service reconfiguration of inpatient services in a hospital includes complete and partial closure of all emergency inpatient facilities. The “natural experiment” of service reconfiguration may give insight into drivers for emergency admissions to hospital. This study addressed the question does the prevalence of emergency admission to hospital for children change after reconfiguration of inpatient services? Methods There were five service reconfigurations in Scottish hospitals between 2004 and 2018 where emergency admissions to one “reconfigured” hospital were halted (permanently or temporarily) and directed to a second “adjacent” hospital. The number of emergency admissions (standardised to /1000 children in the regional population) per month to the “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals was obtained for five years prior to reconfiguration and up to five years afterwards. An interrupted time series analysis considered the association between reconfiguration and admissions across pairs comprised of “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals, with adjustment for seasonality and an overall rising trend in admissions. Results Of the five episodes of reconfiguration, two were immediate closure, two involved closure only to overnight admissions and one with overnight closure for a period and then closure. In “reconfigured” hospitals there was an average fall of 117 admissions/month [95% CI 78, 156] in the year after reconfiguration compared to the year before, and in “adjacent” hospitals admissions rose by 82/month [32, 131]. Across paired reconfigured and adjacent hospitals, in the months post reconfiguration, the overall number of admissions to one hospital pair slowed, in another pair admissions accelerated, and admission prevalence was unchanged in three pairs. After reconfiguration in one hospital, there was a rise in admissions to a third hospital which was closer than the named “adjacent” hospital. Conclusions There are diverse outcomes for the number of emergency admissions post reconfiguration of inpatient facilities. Factors including resources placed in the community after local reconfiguration, distance to the “adjacent” hospital and local deprivation may be important drivers for admission pathways after reconfiguration. Policy makers considering reconfiguration might consider a number of factors which may be important determinants of admissions post reconfiguration.

Recession and risk of suicide in Denmark during the 2009 global financial crisis: an ecological register-based study

2021 ◽  
pp. 140349482110132
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Konieczna ◽  
Sarah Grube Jakobsen ◽  
Christina Petrea Larsen ◽  
Erik Christiansen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Suicide Rate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Prevention Programmes ◽  
The Impact

Aim: The aim of this study is to analyse the potential impact from the financial crisis (onset in 2009) on suicide rates in Denmark. The hypothesis is that the global financial crisis raised unemployment which leads to raising the suicide rate in Denmark and that the impact is most prominent in men. Method: This study used an ecological study design, including register data from 2001 until 2016 on unemployment, suicide, gender and calendar time which was analysed using Poisson regression models and interrupted time series analysis. Results: The correlation between unemployment and suicide rates was positive in the period and statistically significant for all, but at a moderate level. A dichotomised version of time (calendar year) showed a significant reduction in the suicide rate for women (incidence rate ratio 0.87, P=0.002). Interrupted time series analysis showed a significant decreasing trend for the overall suicide rate and for men in the pre-recession period, which in both cases stagnated after the onset of recession in 2009. The difference between the genders’ suicide rate changed significantly at the onset of recession, as the rate for men increased and the rate for women decreased. Discussion: The Danish social welfare model might have prevented social disintegration and suicide among unemployed, and suicide prevention programmes might have prevented deaths among unemployed and mentally ill individuals. Conclusions: We found some indications for gender-specific differences from the impact of the financial crises on the suicide rate. We recommend that men should be specifically targeted for appropriate prevention programmes during periods of economic downturn.

scholarly journals Impact of Removal of Automatic 7-Day Stop Orders for Inpatient Antimicrobials

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (S1) ◽  
pp. s264-s265
Author(s):  
Afia Adu-Gyamfi ◽  
Keith Hamilton ◽  
Leigh Cressman ◽  
Ebbing Lautenbach ◽  
Lauren Dutcher
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Antibiotic Use ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Treatment Interruptions ◽  
Days Of Therapy ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
The Impact

Background: Automatic discontinuation of antimicrobial orders after a prespecified duration of therapy has been adopted as a strategy for reducing excess days of therapy (DOT) as part of antimicrobial stewardship efforts. Automatic stop orders have been shown to decrease antimicrobial DOT. However, inadvertent treatment interruptions may occur as a result, potentially contributing to adverse patient outcomes. To evaluate the effects of this practice, we examined the impact of the removal of an electronic 7-day ASO program on hospitalized patients. Methods: We performed a quasi-experimental study on inpatients in 3 acute-care academic hospitals. In the preintervention period (automatic stop orders present; January 1, 2016, to February 28, 2017), we had an electronic dashboard to identify and intervene on unintentionally missed doses. In the postintervention period (April 1, 2017, to March 31, 2018), the automatic stop orders were removed. We compared the primary outcome, DOT per 1,000 patient days (PD) per month, for patients in the automatic stop orders present and absent periods. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used to compare median monthly DOT/1,000 PD. Interrupted time series analysis (Prais-Winsten model) was used to compared trends in antibiotic DOT/1,000 PD and the immediate impact of the automatic stop order removal. Manual chart review on a subset of 300 patients, equally divided between the 2 periods, was performed to assess for unintentionally missed doses. Results: In the automatic stop order period, a monthly median of 644.5 antibiotic DOT/1,000 PD were administered, compared to 686.2 DOT/1,000 PD in the period without automatic stop orders (P < .001) (Fig. 1). Using interrupted time series analysis, there was a nonsignificant increase by 46.7 DOT/1,000 PD (95% CI, 40.8 to 134.3) in the month immediately following removal of automatic stop orders (P = .28) (Fig. 2). Even though the slope representing monthly change in DOT/1,000 PD increased in the period without automatic stop orders compared to the period with automatic stop orders, it was not statistically significant (P = .41). Manual chart abstraction revealed that in the period with automatic stop orders, 9 of 150 patients had 17 unintentionally missed days of therapy, whereas none (of 150 patients) in the period without automatic stop orders did. Conclusions: Following removal of the automatic stop orders, there was an overall increase in antibiotic use, although the change in monthly trend of antibiotic use was not significantly different. Even with a dashboard to identify missed doses, there was still a risk of unintentionally missed doses in the period with automatic stop orders. Therefore, this risk should be weighed against the modest difference in antibiotic utilization garnered from automatic stop orders.Funding: NoneDisclosures: None

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