scholarly journals Feasible estimation of the long term interest rate dynamics by nonlinear techniques

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Fink ◽  
J. Walde
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Dynamics

Determinants of Inflation in Vietnam: A VECM Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (04) ◽  
pp. 26-50
Author(s):  
Ngoc Tran Thi Bich ◽  
Huong Pham Hoang Cam
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to examine the main determinants of inflation in Vietnam during the period from 2002Q1 to 2013Q2. The cointegration theory and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach are used to examine the impact of domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices on inflation in both long and short terms. The results show that while there are long-term relations among inflation and the others, such factors as oil prices, domestic credit, and interest rate, in the short run, have no impact on fluctuations of inflation. Particularly, the budget deficit itself actually has a short-run impact, but its level is fundamentally weak. The cause of the current inflation is mainly due to public's expectations of the inflation in the last period. Although the error correction, from the long-run relationship, has affected inflation in the short run, the coefficient is small and insignificant. In other words, it means that the speed of the adjustment is very low or near zero. This also implies that once the relationship among inflation, domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices deviate from the long-term trend, it will take the economy a lot of time to return to the equilibrium state.

A Note Concerning the Dynamics of Government Bond Yields

2021 ◽  
pp. 056943452098827
Author(s):  
Tanweer Akram
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
State Theory ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Government Bonds

Keynes argued that the central bank can influence the long-term interest rate on government bonds and the shape of the yield curve mainly through the short-term interest rate. Several recent empirical studies that examine the dynamics of government bond yields not only substantiate Keynes’s view that the long-term interest rate responds markedly to the short-term interest rate but also have relevance for macroeconomic theory and policy. This article relates Keynes’s discussions of money, the state theory of money, financial markets, investors’ expectations, uncertainty, and liquidity preference to the dynamics of government bond yields for countries with monetary sovereignty. Investors’ psychology, herding behavior in financial markets, and uncertainty about the future reinforce the effects of the short-term interest rate and the central bank’s monetary policy actions on the long-term interest rate. JEL classifications: E12; E40; E43; E50; E58; E60; F30; G10; G12; H62; H63

scholarly journals CANDIDE et la monnaie

2009 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-103
Author(s):  
Jean-Pierre Aubry ◽  
Pierre Duguay
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Structural Equations ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Structure Equations

Abstract In this paper we deal with the financial sector of CANDIDE 1.1. We are concerned with the determination of the short-term interest rate, the term structure equations, and the channels through which monetary policy influences the real sector. The short-term rate is determined by a straightforward application of Keynesian liquidity preference theory. A serious problem arises from the directly estimated reduced form equation, which implies that the demand for high powered money, but not the demand for actual deposits, is a stable function of income and interest rates. The structural equations imply the opposite. In the term structure equations, allowance is made for the smaller variance of the long-term rates, but insufficient explanation is given for their sharper upward trend. This leads to an overstatement of the significance of the U.S. long-term rate that must perform the explanatory role. Moreover a strong structural hierarchy, by which the long Canada rate wags the industrial rate, is imposed without prior testing. In CANDIDE two channels of monetary influence are recognized: the costs of capital and the availability of credit. They affect the business fixed investment and housing sectors. The potential of the personal consumption sector is not recognized, the wealth and real balance effects are bypassed, the credit availability proxy is incorrect, the interest rate used in the real sector is nominal rather than real, and the specification of the housing sector is dubious.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document