scholarly journals On Containment Plan Amid COVID-19 in Red Zone Districts of India: Using Clinical Life Table and Cure Fraction Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 52 (04) ◽  
pp. 39-48
Author(s):  
Arpan Kumar Thakur ◽  

Background and Objective: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India took many measures to arrest the spread of COVID-19 disease. This research is intended to shed light on number of confirmed cases with respect to population density of the affected districts, to study the proportion of positives among total sample tested, to construct clinical life table of general population w.r.t. number of daily positive cases and to estimate the long-term survivors among general population. Materials and Methods: Simple scatter plot has been used to see relation between population density and number of cases in different districts of India, cluster analysis technique is used for making cluster of Districts having similar features. Clinical life table is prepared for general population of affected Districts, and mixture & non-mixture cure fraction models used to estimate the proportion of long-term survivors (disease free survival) of general population. Result: Median daily proportion of positives are found to be below 0.05. In 79 identified hot spot Districts average population is very high (36.29 lakhs) with population density of 3404 per square kilometre. Even among those Districts there are huge inter cluster differences w.r.t. number of cases and population density. Clinical life table is constructed for general population of 429 affected Districts, increasing pattern in hazard is found even though study period is small. Long term survivors of disease is simulated and found to be 99.812%. Conclusion: Government ought to make cluster of Districts among red zone Districts, clustering should be based on number of cases and population density. Different containment strategy may be prepared for each cluster of Districts.

Blood ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 120 (21) ◽  
pp. 3649-3649
Author(s):  
Julia Meissner ◽  
Sascha Dietrich ◽  
Marita Ziepert ◽  
Evelyn Kuhnt ◽  
Tanja Rixecker ◽  
...  

Abstract Abstract 3649 Background: A growing number of patients with aggressive lymphoma experience long term survival after front-line treatment and survivorship issues have been increasingly addressed in recent years. Within treatment-induced sequelae, gonadal failure represents a major late-effect of chemotherapy. With respect to hematologic malignancies the majority of data on fertility effects pertains to Hodgkin Lymphoma treatment regimens whereas information on gonadal toxicity of non-Hodgkin Lymphoma treatments is limited. While CHOP as the standard treatment for aggressive lymphoma is supposed to be associated with only temporary side-effects on fertility in both sexes, nothing is known about the fertility effect of a moderate intensification of CHOP by adding etoposide in frequently used regimens such as CHOEP or dose-adjusted EPOCH. Methods: Our study assessed fertility aspects in young patients with aggressive lymphoma who enjoy ongoing first remission after treatment in the Mabthera International Trial or the German DSHNHL NHLB1 study between 1995 and 2003. Long term survivors of both prospective studies were contacted and invited to answer a questionnaire. Patients who received radiotherapy to the gonadal area as part of their primary treatment as well as those who received chemotherapy for secondary neoplasia were excluded from the analysis. Data on parenthood obtained in the subgroup of patients who received 6 complete cycles (R)-CHOEP (total cyclophosphamide and etoposide dose 4,500 mg/m2 and 1,800 mg/m2, respectively) is reported here. Results: Altogether 66 (31 female, 35 male) patients agreed to participate in the survey. Median age at treatment was 32.5 years (range: 18 – 40) and at time of data collection 44 years (range: 28 – 55), respectively, with a median follow-up after treatment completion of 11 years (range: 7 – 17). While 31 (46.9%) patients already had children before treatment (18 female – 58.1%, 13 male – 37.1%), 35 (53.0%) expressed a clear desire for children after treatment (14 female – 45.2%, 21 male – 60.0%). Ten of these 35 patients did not try to achieve pregnancy, with lack of partner being the main reason. Of the remaining 25 patients (12 female, 13 male) who tried to achieve pregnancy, 18 (9 female – 75%, 9 male – 69%) were finally successful. Apart from 2 deliberate abortions all pregnancies were uncomplicated and resulted in 25 live births. No major health problems were reported in the children. The interval between completion of treatment and birth of first child after treatment ranged from 21 to 146 months (median 58 months) in female patients and from 25 months to 106 months (median 60.5 months) in male patients. Patients not achieving pregnancy tended to be older then patients who successfully achieved pregnancy (median age 30 versus 25 in female patients and 34.5 versus 28 years in male patients). Not achieving parenthood after treatment was associated with emotional stress in 3 of 3 female patients but only in 1 of 4 male patients. Fourteen patients chose cryopreservation of sperm before treatment but none of them utilized preserved sperm for reproductive purposes. Cryopreservation techniques were not used in female patients. Only one female patient received a GnRH analogue in parallel to chemotherapy and gave birth to two children after treatment. Comparison of the presented patient data with the German general population (The German Socio-Economic Panel, 2011) revealed only non-significant differences in the overall percentage of childless women (16.1% in the study population versus 26.0% in the general population, p=0.15) and men (45.7% versus 33.8%, p=0.07). Total fertility rate in female study patients (1.45) paralleled that in the general population (around 1.4 between 1980 and 2010). Conclusions: Parenthood after treatment with CHOP plus etoposide seems not to be significantly impaired in comparison to the general population. Most patients who had attempted post-treatment parenthood were successful. The small percentage of patients not achieving pregnancy despite a clear desire for parenthood after treatment is in line with previous reports on the fertility effects of CHOP. However, all patients of reproductive age should be offered counselling with regard to the impact of planned therapy on their fertility. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


2004 ◽  
Vol 22 (14_suppl) ◽  
pp. 4640-4640
Author(s):  
L. Balteskard ◽  
R. M. Bremnes ◽  
O. Dahl ◽  
O. Klepp ◽  
E. Wist ◽  
...  

2006 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grace P. McCormack ◽  
Judith R. Glynn ◽  
Jonathan P. Clewley ◽  
Amelia C. Crampin ◽  
Simon A.A. Travers ◽  
...  

Blood ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 138 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 2289-2289
Author(s):  
Eva Telzerow ◽  
Dennis Görlich ◽  
Maja Rothenberg-Thurley ◽  
Maria Cristina Sauerland ◽  
Anna Sophia Moret ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction An increasing proportion of patients with Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) become long-term survivors. Somatic and psycho-social outcomes are therefore becoming increasingly important, but little is known about the long-term effects of the disease and its treatment. Methods We designed a comprehensive analysis of AML survivorship outcomes including psycho-social well-being and somatic health status and conducted a questionnaire-based study collecting data from AML long term survivors (AML-LTS) and their physicians. This report focuses on overall and health-related quality of life. Somatic, especially cardiovascular, morbidity in AML-LTS are reported separately (Moret et al.). The primary aim of this study was to compare quality of life (QoL, measured by the FACT-G questionnaire) and general and health-related life satisfaction (gLS/hLS, measured by the FLZ-M questionnaire) of AML-LTS with normative data of German adults who were not diagnosed with AML (Holzner et al. 2009; Daig et al. 2009). FLZ-M and FACT-G scores were standardized relative to the normal population mean and standard deviation, stratified by sex and age. These z-scores were then tested against the fixed value 0 (indicating no difference between AML-LTS and the general population) using Mann-Whitney U-tests. Our statistical design incorporated a sequentially rejective testing procedure to maintain the multiple testing significance level at 5%, using a graphical model as described by Bretz et al. (2009). Results 427 former AML patients who had been enrolled in AMLCG trials (AMLCG-1999, AMLCG-2004, AMLCG-2008) or the AMLCG patient registry, participated in this study between 5 and 18.6 years [y] after their initial AML diagnosis (median, 11.3y). Median age of AML-LTS was 61y (range 28y-93y), and 56% were female. Thirty-eight percent of participants had been treated with chemotherapy alone, while 62% received at least one allogeneic stem cell transplant (alloSCT). A relapse occurred in 24% of the participants. Unexpectedly, quality of life and general life satisfaction summary scores were significantly higher in AML-LTS (p<.001) compared to adults without the diagnosis of AML, although most differences on QoL subscales relative to the general population were small and very likely not clinically relevant. No statistical difference between AML-LTS and normal adults was found for health-related life satisfaction (hLS). Notably, a subgroup of participants (26%) reported poor physical well-being (PWB), indicated by a FACT PWB subscore more than one standard deviation (SD) below the age- and sex-matched general population value (Figure A). This resulted in poor overall QoL (i.e. >1 SD below normal) for 13% of the participants (Figure B). To identify factors potentially associated with poor overall QoL, we constructed a logistic regression model including pre-specified cofactors (age, sex, time since initial diagnosis, relapse and alloSCT) and additional covariables that associated with QoL in univariate analyses (Table C). We found that participants with younger age, male sex, lower educational level, shorter time since diagnosis and a altered financial situation reported significantly lower QoL. No influence was found for other characteristics including treatment (alloSCT vs. no alloSCT), previous relapse, or de novo vs. secondary or therapy-related AML. Discussion Unlike previous studies of AML survivorship, our large cohort included a diverse spectrum of patients regarding age, time since diagnosis, and treatment modalities, which allows for new insight into long-term quality of life. Our study establishes that overall QoL in AML long-term survivors is comparable to the general population. Improvement of QoL continues beyond five years post diagnosis. Importantly, disease- and treatment-related factors, such as prior relapse or status post allogeneic transplantation, are not associated with overall QoL. However, we were able to identify risk factors for worse QoL (younger age, male sex, alteration of the financial situation), delineating a subgroup of patients that may still have a need for targeted psycho-social interventions five or more years after an AML diagnosis. Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures Berdel: Philogen S.p.A.: Consultancy, Current equity holder in publicly-traded company, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Hiddemann: Janssen: Research Funding; Roche: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding. Metzeler: AbbVie: Honoraria; Astellas: Honoraria; Daiichi Sankyo: Honoraria; Novartis: Consultancy; Jazz Pharmaceuticals: Consultancy; Pfizer: Consultancy; Celgene/BMS: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding.


Author(s):  
Umar Usman ◽  
Shamsuddeen Suleiman ◽  
Bello Magaji Arkilla ◽  
Yakubu Aliyu

In this paper, a new long term survival model called Nadarajah-Haghighi model for survival data with long term survivors was proposed. The model is used in fitting data where the population of interest is a mixture of individuals that are susceptible to the event of interest and individuals that are not susceptible to the event of interest. The statistical properties of the proposed model including quantile function, moments, mean and variance were provided. Maximum likelihood estimation procedure was used to estimate the parameters of the model assuming right censoring. Furthermore, Bayesian method of estimation was also employed in estimating the parameters of the model assuming right censoring. Simulations study was performed in order to ascertain the performances of the MLE estimators. Random samples of different sample sizes were generated from the model with some arbitrary values for the parameters for 5%, 1:3% and 1:5% cure fraction values. Bias, standard error and mean square error were used as discrimination criteria. Additionally, we compared the performance of the proposed model with some competing models. The results of the applications indicates that the proposed model is more efficient than the models compared with. Finally, we fitted some models considering type of treatment as a covariate. It was observed that the covariate  have effect on the shape parameter of the proposed model.


2016 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prafulla Kumar Swain ◽  
Gurprit Grover ◽  
Komal Goel

Abstract The cure fraction models are generally used to model lifetime data with long term survivors. In a cohort of cancer patients, it has been observed that due to the development of new drugs some patients are cured permanently, and some are not cured. The patients who are cured permanently are called cured or long term survivors while patients who experience the recurrence of the disease are termed as susceptibles or uncured. Thus, the population is divided into two groups: a group of cured individuals and a group of susceptible individuals. The proportion of cured individuals after the treatment is typically known as the cure fraction. In this paper, we have introduced a three parameter Gompertz (viz. scale, shape and acceleration) or generalized Gompertz distribution in the presence of cure fraction, censored data and covariates for estimating the proportion of cure fraction through Bayesian Approach. Inferences are obtained using the standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique in openBUGS software.


2007 ◽  
Vol 25 (18_suppl) ◽  
pp. 8553-8553
Author(s):  
D. R. Minor ◽  
J. Miller ◽  
M. Kashani-Sabet

8553 Purpose: Because long-term survival after therapy for advanced stage IV melanoma is rare, we thought it would be useful to examine our series of survivors treated with biochemotherapy for melanoma to analyze the characteristics of survivors and their chronic toxicities. Patients and Methods: We reviewed our previously reported (J Clin Oncol. 2005:23:16s suppl, abstract 7547) consecutive series of 38 patients treated between 9/02 and 7/04. They received 6 cycles of inpatient temozolomide, cisplatin, vinblastine, decrescendo high- dose iv IL-2 , and interferon followed by maintenance immunotherapy using IL-2 and sargramostim using the O’Day regimen (Clinical Cancer Res. 2002:8:2775).Two of the ten long-term survivors received surgery for resection of residual disease after achieving a partial response with biochemotherapy. Maintenance immunotherapy was given for 6 to 24 months after biochemotherapy. Results: The median progression- free survival was 7.3 months. No patient developed progression later than 17 months after the start of therapy with the progression-free survival curve level at 24%. Median overall survival was 16.2 months. 10 of the 38 patients are alive and disease-free off therapy after an average of 3.3 years follow-up. Durable complete responses were seen in visceral sites including lung, bone, and pericardium, with 8 of 10 long- term survivors having M1B or M1C disease. 3 patients have significant lymphedema related to prior surgery, radiation therapy, or both. 2 patients, one with pre-existing diabetes, have significant persisting neuropathy. 5 of the 10 patients are hypothyroid. Menstrual function returned in the three women under age 45 in this study. Conclusion: This series supports the findings from other series that biochemotherapy, like high-dose IL-2, can give prolonged disease-free survival. Survivors have a high incidence of hypothyroidism but neuropathy and lymphedema, which affected a minority of patients, were the most bothersome long-term toxicities. No significant financial relationships to disclose.


BMC Surgery ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
S. A. Safi ◽  
N. Lehwald-Tywuschik ◽  
A. Rehders ◽  
G. Fluegen ◽  
L. Haeberle ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Ductal adenocarcinoma of the pancreas (PDAC) remains one of the most lethal malignancies. To date, no guidelines exists for isolated resectable metachronous disease. It is still unknown, which patients may benefit from relapse surgery. The aim of our study was to compare disease free survival (DFS) and post relapse survival (PRS) in patients with isolated local recurrence, metachronous hepatic or pulmonary metastases. Methods Patients with isolated resectable local recurrence, metachronous hepatic or pulmonary metastases were included for survival analyses. PRS of surgically treated patients (local (n = 11), hepatic (n = 6) and pulmonary metastases (n = 9)) was compared to conservatively treated patients (local (n = 17), hepatic (n = 37) and pulmonary metastases (n = 8)). Results Resected PDAC patients suffering from isolated metachronous hepatic metastases initially had a higher T-stage and venous invasion (V1) compared to the other patients. DFS in the metachronous pulmonary metastases group was longer compared to DFS of the hepatic metastases and local recurrence groups. Surgical resection significantly improved PRS in patients with local recurrence and pulmonary metastases, when compared to patients receiving chemotherapy alone. Very-long term survivors (> 5 years) were detected following secondary resection of local recurrence and 45% of these patients were still alive at the end of our study period. Conclusion Although DFS in PDAC patients suffering from isolated local recurrence was dismal and comparable to that of patients with isolated hepatic metastases, very-long term survivors were present only in this group. These results indicate that a surgical approach for isolated local recurrence, if anatomically possible, should be considered.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document