scholarly journals Macroeconomic imbalance procedure (MIP) scoreboard indicators and their predictive strength of “multidimensional crises”

Equilibrium ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-28
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Biegun ◽  
Jacek Karwowski
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
International Investment ◽  
Ordered Probit ◽  
Ordered Probit Model ◽  
Probit Regression ◽  
Cost Index ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Predictive Strength ◽  
The Eu

Research background: The evaluation of the predictive strength of MIP indicators in relation to crises is extremely important for the process of coordinating the economic policies of the EU countries. MIP is one of the pillars of the economic crisis prevention procedure. Predictive power of individual indicators has not been tested before their introduction. Purpose of the article: Evaluation of the predictive strength of fourteen MIP indicators in relation to multidimensional crises in the EU countries. Methods: We used ordered probit model to test the ability of MIP indicators to correctly predict episodes of “multidimensional crises” (as defined by the authors) in the period between 2008 and 2017 in all EU Member States. Findings & Value added: We defined “multidimensional crises”, combining several negative phenomena into one limited dependent variable. This work is also novel in its application of probit regression to test the predictive strength of MIP indicators with an ordered probit model. We identified five MIP variables which were statistically significant in predicting “multidimensional crises” for all EU countries: net international investment position, nominal unit labour cost index, house price index, private sector credit flow and general government gross debt. Other variables turned out to be less important or not effective in crises prediction.

The Service Sector in the Economy in Poland and European Union Countries

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 191-207
Author(s):  
Walentyna Kwiatkowska
Keyword(s):  
Service Sector ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Total Employment ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Gross Value Added ◽  
European Union Countries ◽  
Service Sectors ◽  
Sector Theory ◽  
The Eu

The role of the service sector in the economy is increasing in the process of socio-economic development. This tendency has been confirmed and explained by the three-sector theory formulated by A.G.B. Fisher, C. Clark, and J. Fourastie. The main goal of the paper is to show development tendencies in service sectors in Poland and the EU countries and assess them in view of the three-sector theory. The share of the service sector in the total employment and in the total gross value added in the years 2005-2013/2014 will be analysed together with two sub-sectors including market and non-market services. The research shows that the share of the service sector in total employment and total gross value added has been recently increasing in Poland as well as in other EU countries, but there is a gap in this process between Poland and the most developed EU countries. Moreover, in Poland, the role of market services has been recently increasing much faster than the role of non-market services. 

Do the heterogeneous determinants of life satisfaction affect differently across borrowers of diverse credit sources? A propensity score approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (8) ◽  
pp. 1142-1158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiken Das ◽  
Manesh Choubey
Keyword(s):  
Life Satisfaction ◽  
Propensity Score ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Ordered Probit ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Ordered Probit Model ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Credit Access ◽  
Physical Assets

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the non-monetary effect of credit access by providing an econometric framework which controls the problem of selection bias. Design/methodology/approach The study is conducted in Assam, India and uses a quasi-experiment design to gather primary data. The ordered probit model is used to evaluate the non-monetary impact of credit access. The paper uses a propensity score approach to check the robustness of the ordered probit model. Findings The study confirms the positive association of credit access to life satisfaction of borrowers. It is found that, in general, rural borrower’s life satisfaction is influenced by the ability and capacity to work, the value of physical assets of the borrowers as well as some other lenders’ and borrowers’ specific factors. But, the direction of causality of the factors influencing borrowers’ life satisfaction is remarkably different across credit sources. Research limitations/implications The study argues to provide productive investment opportunities to semiformal and informal borrowers while improving their life satisfaction score. Although the results are adjusted for selection and survivorship biases, it is impossible with the available data to assess which non-income factors explain the findings, and therefore this limitation is left to future research. Originality/value The study contributes to the literature of rural credit by assessing the probable differences among formal, semiformal and informal credit sources with respect to non-monetary impacts.

scholarly journals The Organization of Political Violence by Insurgencies

2012 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Roos Haer
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Ordered Probit ◽  
Process Theory ◽  
Ordered Probit Model ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Human Right ◽  
Armed Group ◽  
The World ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractA range of theories have attempted to explain the variation in civilian abuse of warring parties. Most of these theories have been focused on the strategic environment in which these acts take place. Less attention is devoted to the perpetrators of these human right abuses themselves: the armed groups. This study tries to fill this niche by using the organizational process theory in which it is assumed that armed groups, like every organization, struggles for survival. The leader tries to ensure the maintenance of her armed group by increasing her control over her troops. The relationship between the level of control and the perpetrated civilian abuse is examined with a new dataset on the internal structure of more than 70 different armed groups around the world. With the help of a Bayesian Ordered Probit model, this new dataset on civilian abuse is analyzed. The results show that especially particular incentives play an important role.

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