scholarly journals Trends in Childbearing and Nuptiality in Sweden: An Update with Data up to 2007

2011 ◽  
pp. 21-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunnar Andersson ◽  
Martin Kolk
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Marriage Rates ◽  
Marriage And Divorce ◽  
Relative Risks ◽  
Demographic Behavior ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
Trend Reversal

We present an update of the main features of recent trends in vital family-demographic behavior in Sweden. For this purpose, time series of relative risks of childbearing, marriage, and divorce by calendar year are updated with another five years of observation added to previously published series. We demonstrate that fertility in Sweden continued its upward trend during much of the first decade of the 21st century. The rise pertains to all birth orders. It is driven by the halt in postponement of first childbearing at the younger ages and the continued fertility recuperation at higher ages. Marriage propensities increased as well, reversing a decades-long trend of decreasing marriage rates. The trend reversal comprises first marriages and remarriages alike. Interestingly, the increased popularity of marriage and childbearing is accompanied with a slight decline in divorce risks during the first decade of the new century.

scholarly journals Trends in Childbearing, Marriage and Divorce in Sweden: An Update with Data up to 2012

2016 ◽  
Vol 50 ◽  
pp. 21-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunnar Andersson ◽  
Martin Kolk
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Family Dynamics ◽  
Turn Of The Century ◽  
Population Research ◽  
Marriage And Divorce ◽  
Relative Risks ◽  
Demographic Behavior ◽  
Swedish Family ◽  
Trend Reversal

We present an update of the main and parity-specific trends in vital family-demographic behavior in Sweden presented in Finnish Yearbook of Population Research 2011. Based on Swedish register data, previous time series of relative risks of childbearing, marriage, and divorce by calendar year are updated with another five years of observation. We demonstrate that more than a decade of increasing fertility levels turned into moderate fertility declines in 2011. This trend reversal pertains to all main birth orders. Marriage propensities continued to increase for mothers but stagnated for the childless. Since the turn of the century, trends in divorce risks seem to have leveled off, altogether reflecting a more prevalent role of marriage in recent Swedish family dynamics.

scholarly journals Trends in frost days in Bosnia and Herzegovina

2017 ◽  
Vol 97 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-55
Author(s):  
Tatjana Popov ◽  
Slobodan Gnjato ◽  
Goran Trbic
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Plant Phenology ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
Banja Luka

The paper analyzes the recent trends in the occurrence of frost days in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Trends during the 1961-2015 periods were determined based on data from fourteen meteorological stations. MAKESENS procedure, which uses the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the nonparametric Sen?s method, was applied on time series of annual number of frost days to assess trends magnitude and its statistical significance. Given the results, negative and largely significant trends are present all over Bosnia and Herzegovina territory. The estimated decreasing trend was in the range of 2.1-6.4 days per decade. The percentile analysis of the annual number of frost days in Bosnia and Herzegovina suggests that a decreasing trend has become more pronounced since 1990s and particularly since the beginning of the 21st century. The observed downward trends were primarily a consequence of high negative trends in the coldest winter months - in January and December. The most prominent decrease in annual number of frost days was observed in Banja Luka, Bugojno, Zenica and Bjelasnica area. Further research on the effects of the determined trends in the frost occurrence on plants is necessary particularly due to the observed changes in plant phenology as a result of climate system warming.

scholarly journals Air pollutants and hospitalization due to pneumonia among children. An ecological time series study

2015 ◽  
Vol 133 (5) ◽  
pp. 408-413 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tassia Soldi Tuan ◽  
Taís Siqueira Venâncio ◽  
Luiz Fernando Costa Nascimento
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Air Pollutants ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Population Attributable Fraction ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Cost Savings ◽  
Time Series Study ◽  
Avoidable Hospitalizations ◽  
Relative Risks ◽  
Series Study

ABSTRACT CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: Exposure to air pollutants is one of the factors responsible for hospitalizations due to pneumonia among children. This has considerable financial cost, along with social cost. A study to identify the role of this exposure in relation to hospital admissions due to pneumonia among children up to 10 years of age was conducted. DESIGN AND SETTING: Ecological time series study using data from São José dos Campos, Brazil. METHODS: Daily data on hospitalizations due to pneumonia and on the pollutants CO, O3, PM10 and SO2, temperature and humidity in São José dos Campos, in 2012, were analyzed. A generalized additive model of Poisson's regression was used. Relative risks for hospitalizations due to pneumonia, according to lags of 0-5 days, were estimated. The population-attributable fraction, number of avoidable hospitalizations and cost savings from avoidable hospitalizations were calculated. RESULTS: There were 539 admissions. Exposure to CO and O3 was seen to be associated with hospitalizations, with risks of 1.10 and 1.15 on the third day after exposure to increased CO concentration of 200 ppb and ozone concentration of 20 µg/m3. Exposure to the pollutants of particulate matter and sulfur dioxide were not shown to be associated with hospitalizations. Decreases in CO and ozone concentrations could lead to 49 fewer hospitalizations and cost reductions of R$ 39,000.00. CONCLUSION: Exposure to certain air pollutants produces harmful effects on children's health, even in a medium-sized city. Public policies to reduce emissions of these pollutants need to be implemented.

scholarly journals McTaggart’s paradox and its consequences

2015 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 226-242
Author(s):  
Strahinja Djordjevic
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
21St Century ◽  
History Of Philosophy ◽  
Temporal Relations ◽  
Philosophy Of Time ◽  
Human Understanding ◽  
Contrary View ◽  
History Of ◽  
Mctaggart's Paradox

McTaggart?s explanation of the human understanding of time, which uses the time series, is a significant moment in the history of philosophy, and his attempt to prove time?s unreality had strong but diverse reactions. The majority of thinkers who wrote after him agree that time is indeed real, but the intellectual division that was created around the question of which part of the paradox in dispute will dominate philosophy of time in the 20th and 21st century. It can be concluded that both major theories within this field have an undeniable influence on the division of time series which McTaggart made. After analyzing the paradox, the focus will be on clarifying the debate between tensed and tenseless theorists. The former dispute the claim that the A-series is contradictory and argue that the tensed time is the proper determination of events in time, while the latter claim that the B-series is independent and that time can be determined only by temporal relations. By recognizing the differences between these two lines of thought, it will become easier to understand the nature of their relationship to the time series, namely by considering the ways in which they defend their own and attack the contrary view.

Morphological evolution of the bivalvePtychomyathrough the Lower Cretaceous of Argentina

Paleobiology ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-117
Author(s):  
Pablo S. Milla Carmona ◽  
Darío G. Lazo ◽  
Ignacio M. Soto
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Morphological Variation ◽  
Morphological Evolution ◽  
The Other ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Shell Size ◽  
Evolutionary Patterns ◽  
Upper Hauterivian ◽  
Patterns And Processes ◽  
Early Late

AbstractThe complex morphological evolution of the bivalvePtychomyathroughout the well-studied Agrio Formation in the Neuquén Basin (west-central Argentina, lower/upper Valanginian–lowest Barremian) constitutes an ideal opportunity to study evolutionary patterns and processes occurring at geological timescales. Ptychomyais represented in this unit by four species, the morphological variation of which needs to be temporally assessed to obtain a thorough picture of the evolution of the group. Here we use geometric morphometrics to measure variation in shell outline, ribbing pattern, and shell size in these species. We bracket the ages of our samples using a combination of ammonoid biostratigraphy and absolute ages and study the anagenetic pattern of evolution of each trait by means of paleontological time-series analysis and change tracking. We find that evolution inPtychomyais mostly speciational, as the majority of traits show stasis, with the exceptions of shell size inP. coihuicoensisand shell outline inP. windhauseni, which seem to evolve directionally toward larger and higher shells, respectively.Ptychomyadisplays changes in its average morphology and disparity, which are the result of a mixture of taxonomic turnover and mosaic evolution of traits. Pulses of speciation would have been triggered by ecological opportunity, as they occur during the recovery of shallow-burrowing bivalve faunas after dysoxic events affecting the basin. On the other hand, the presence of directional patterns of evolution inP. coihuicoensisandP. windhauseniseems to be the result of a general shallowing-upward trend observed in the basin during the upper Hauterivian–lowest Barremian, as opposed to the cyclical paleoenvironmental stability inferred for the early/late Valanginian–early Hauterivian, which would have prompted stasis inP. koeneniandP. esbelta.

scholarly journals From Convergence to Divergence: Portuguese Economic Growth, 1527–1850

2019 ◽  
Vol 79 (2) ◽  
pp. 477-506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nuno Palma ◽  
Jaime Reis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Eighteenth Century ◽  
Economic Decline ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
European Standards ◽  
European Economies ◽  
First Time

We construct the first time-series for Portugal’s per capita GDP for 1527–1850, drawing on a new database. Starting in the early 1630s there was a highly persistent upward trend which accelerated after 1710 and peaked 40 years later. At that point, per capita income was high by European standards, though behind the most advanced Western European economies. But as the second half of the eighteenth century unfolded, a phase of economic decline was initiated. This continued into the nineteenth century, and by 1850 per capita incomes were not different from what they had been in the early 1530s.

Time series regression results of suicide rates by social correlates for the USA and Northen Ireland

1991 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Lester ◽  
Peter S Curran ◽  
Bijou Yang
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Social Integration ◽  
Sociological Theory ◽  
Social Regulation ◽  
Social Characteristics ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Marriage Rates ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
The People ◽  
The Usa

A time series analysis of suicide in Northen Ireland and the USA for 1960 to 1984 revealed different correlates. Whereas divorce rates predicted national suicide rates in the USA, birth and marriage rates predicted suicide rates in Northern Ireland.The major sociological theory proposed for understanding variations in national suicide rates was that of Durkheim. Durkheim proposed that two broad social characteristics were in large part responsible for the appearance of suicidal behaviour: social integration, the degree to which the people in a society were interconnected through social relationships, and social regulation, the degree to which the emotions and desires of people in the society were controlled and channeled by the social norms and customs.Durkheim argued that suicide would be common when social integration was very strong (altruistic suicide) or very weak (egoistic suicide) and when social regulation was very strong (fatalistic suicide) or very weak (anomic suicide). Later theorists have argued that Durkheim placed more emphasis than was warranted on very strong social integration and regulation. Johnson argued, for example, that suicide would be more common when social integration and regulation were weak.

scholarly journals Artificial upward trends in Greek marine landings: a case of presentist bias in European fisheries

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Athanassios C. Tsikliras ◽  
Donna Dimarchopoulou ◽  
Androniki Pardalou
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Marine Fisheries ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Stock Assessments ◽  
Fisheries Policy ◽  
Catch Reconstruction ◽  
Combined Time Series ◽  
Original Time ◽  
Analytical Errors

AbstractAccording to the official landings as reported by the international databases for Greece, the declining trend of the Greek marine fisheries landings that had been continuous since the mid 1990s has been reversed during the last two years, with the total marine fisheries landings showing elevated catches after 2016. We claim that this upward trend is an artifact that is attributed to the combined reporting of the landings of additional fleets since 2016 that had been separately reported before and resulted in 20-30% inflation of the landings. In 2016, the Greek statistical authorities included the landings of 10 000 small-scale coastal vessels with engine horsepower lower than 20 HP together with the remaining coastal vessels, purse-seiners and trawlers whose landings formed the official reported Greek marine fisheries landings from 1970 to 2015. We acknowledge that this act of partial catch reconstruction improved the resolution of the landings and the officially reported values are now more realistic. However, the artificial, albeit inadvertent, inflation of the official Greek marine fisheries landings as they appear in international databases is a clear case of ‘presentist bias’ and may distort stock assessments and ecosystem modeling. As the currently misleading data stand, they are cause for substantial misinterpretation and analytical errors that can influence fisheries policy and have serious implications for fisheries management. We suggest that researchers should refrain from using the combined time-series and that a correction should be applied to the original time series (1970-2015) to account for the entire small-scale coastal fleet.

scholarly journals Assessment of Sea Level Rise at West Coast of Portugal Mainland and Its Projection for the 21st Century

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Antunes
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
The West ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Global Sea Level

Data collected at the Cascais tide gauge, located on the west coast of Portugal Mainland, have been analyzed and sea level rise rates have been updated. Based on a bootstrapping linear regression model and on polynomial adjustments, time series are used to calculate different empirical projections for the 21st century sea level rise, by estimating the initial velocity and its corresponding acceleration. The results are consistent to an accelerated sea level rise, showing evidence of a faster rise than previous century estimates. Based on different numerical methods of second order polynomial fitting, it is possible to build a set of projection models of relative sea level rise. Appling the same methods to regional sea level anomaly from satellite altimetry, additional projections are also built with good consistency. Both data sets, tide gauge and satellite altimetry data, enabled the development of an ensemble of projection models. The relative sea level rise projections are crucial for national coastal planning and management since extreme sea level scenarios can potentially cause erosion and flooding. Based on absolute vertical velocities obtained by integrating global sea level models, neo-tectonic studies and permanent Global Positioning System (GPS) station time series, it is possible to transform relative into absolute sea level rise scenarios, and vice-versa, allowing the generation of absolute sea level rise projection curves and its comparison with already established global projections. The sea level rise observed at the Cascais tide gauge has always shown a significant correlation with global sea level rise observations, evidencing relatively low rates of composed vertical land velocity from tectonic and post-glacial isostatic adjustment, and residual synoptic regional dynamic effects rather than a trend. An ensemble of sea level projection models for the 21st century is proposed with its corresponding probability density function, both for relative and absolute sea level rise for the west coast of Portugal Mainland.

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