Collision risk modeling of air traffic

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henk Blom ◽  
Bert Bakker ◽  
Mariken Everdij ◽  
Marco van der Park
Keyword(s):  
Air Traffic ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Collision Risk

Dynamic collision risk modeling under uncertainty

Robotica ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 525-537 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Belkhouche ◽  
B. Bendjilali
Keyword(s):  
Configuration Space ◽  
Collision Detection ◽  
Sensory System ◽  
Dynamic Environment ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Moving Vehicles ◽  
Probability Of Collision ◽  
Geometric Variables

SUMMARYThis paper introduces a probabilistic model for collision risk assessment between moving vehicles. The uncertainties in the states and the geometric variables obtained from the sensory system are characterized by probability density functions. Given the states and their uncertainties, the goal is to determine the probability of collision in a dynamic environment. Two approaches are discussed: (1) The virtual configuration space (VCS), and (2) the rates of change of the visibility angles. The VCS is a transformation of observer that reduces collision detection with a moving object to collision detection with a stationary object. This approach allows to create simple geometric collision cones. Error propagation models are used to solve the problem when going from the VCS to the configuration space. The second approach derives the collision conditions in terms of the rate of change of the limit visibility angles. The probability of collision is then calculated. A comparison between the two methods is carried out. Results are illustrated using simulation, including Monte Carlo simulation.

Longitudinal Collision Risk Assessment of Paired Departure to Closed Spaced Parallel Runways

2014 ◽  
Vol 1030-1032 ◽  
pp. 2028-2033
Author(s):  
Zhao Ning Zhang ◽  
Hui Qiao ◽  
Ting Ting Lu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Traffic Control ◽  
Air Traffic Control ◽  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Error Distribution ◽  
Air Traffic ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Safety Operation ◽  
Calculation Models

Paired departure to closed spaced parallel runways can effectively improve capacity of terminal, and also can solve congestion of busy airport, but it also increases the complexity of air traffic control .For ensuring safety operation of paired departure, the longitudinal collision risk of paired departure to closed spaced parallel runways was studied. Based on the acceleration error distribution and requirements on wake avoidance during paired departure, a longitudinal collision risk safety assessment model of closed spaced parallel runways paired departure was built. The parameters in this model were determined by providing the calculation models. In the end, an example was calculated to verify the model, and it turns out that this model is feasible.

Collision Risk Modeling in the Northern Pacific Airspace under Separation Reduction and Improvements in Navigational Performance

2006 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 257-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theresa Brewer-Dougherty ◽  
Brian Colamosca ◽  
Christine Gerhardt-Falk ◽  
Dale Livingston ◽  
Lauren Martin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Northern Pacific

Future Air Traffic Management: Quantitative En Route Safety Assessment Part 2 – New Approaches

2002 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 363-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Brooker
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Management ◽  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Air Traffic Management ◽  
Air Traffic ◽  
Abstract Concepts ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Route Safety ◽  
The Right ◽  
Quantitative Safety Assessment

This is the second of two papers on Quantitative Safety Assessment – vital to the successful introduction of future Air Traffic Management systems. The focus is en route European controlled commercial traffic, particularly the mid-air collision risk. Part 2 develops soundly based and practical methods for safety assessment. The objective is to determine the key questions and the best ways to answer them. Aspects covered include lessons from Hazard Analysis and Airproxes together with ‘realistic’ risk budgeting. Two abstract concepts are introduced: Position Integrity and Reasonable Intent (essentially the need to be on the ‘right’ flight path), and their implications for risk calculations are discussed.

The Probability of Overlap in the Vertical Dimension

1984 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-124
Author(s):  
S. Nagaoka
Keyword(s):  
Data Collection ◽  
Traffic Control ◽  
Air Traffic Control ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Air Traffic ◽  
Vertical Dimension ◽  
Collision Risk

The mathematical collision risk model developed by Reich can be used for evaluating the current air traffic control (ATC) separation minima. This model requires such parameters as volume of traffic, navigational errors of aircraft and the structure of routes. The navigational errors are closely related to the probability of overlap, which is one of the most important parameters for the model.Distributions of navigational errors have been studied by many researchers since the advent of the collision risk model. Because data collection on the navigational errors in the vertical dimension is expensive and time-consuming, there are few examples of observed data. Thus, at present, data on the probability of overlap in the vertical dimension are not available in a large enough sample to derive any conclusions.

Mathematical Studies on Separation Standards

1971 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 456-458
Author(s):  
D. E. Lloyd
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Control ◽  
Air Traffic Control ◽  
Mathematical Theory ◽  
Air Traffic ◽  
Control Environment ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Separation Standards ◽  
Navigation Accuracy ◽  
Mathematics Department ◽  
The Way

In a procedural Air Traffic Control environment, navigation standards are related to separation standards because of the way they both affect the collision risk. The Air Traffic Studies division of the Mathematics Department at R.A.E. has developed methods of estimating the collision risk procedural systems and these provide rational grounds for decisions on separation standards. In a radar-monitored system navigation accuracy and separation standards both affect the workload of the controller on the ground and it is necessary to study these effects to ensure that he is not overloaded. In addition the problems of estimating the collision risk will become more complicated. I shall very briefly describe the mathematical theory of collision risk for parallel tracks. A fuller description has been published in the Journal.

Analysis of Long-Range Air Traffic Systems: Separation Standards—III

1966 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 331-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. G. Reich
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Air Traffic ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Operational Conditions ◽  
Upper Limit ◽  
Theoretical Assumptions ◽  
Traffic Systems ◽  
Separation Standards

The earlier papers in this series described the principles, and some of the techniques, which determine the approach to separation standards made at the Royal Aircraft Establishment. In this approach to the problems of estimating safe separation standards and specifying the quality of navigation needed, emphasis is laid on the observations of flying errors which occur in operational conditions. Dependence on theoretical assumptions is limited to the extent necessary to make usable ‘upper limit’ estimates of collision risk. Where critical assumptions are unavoidable, their nature and effects are shown.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document