scholarly journals Iterative Bayesian Estimation of Navigation Performance Modeled by a Mixture of Gaussian and Laplace Distributions for the Application of Collision Risk Modeling

2013 ◽  
Vol 56 (5) ◽  
pp. 253-260 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masato FUJITA
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Estimation ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Mixture Of Gaussian

Dynamic collision risk modeling under uncertainty

Robotica ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 525-537 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Belkhouche ◽  
B. Bendjilali
Keyword(s):  
Configuration Space ◽  
Collision Detection ◽  
Sensory System ◽  
Dynamic Environment ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Moving Vehicles ◽  
Probability Of Collision ◽  
Geometric Variables

SUMMARYThis paper introduces a probabilistic model for collision risk assessment between moving vehicles. The uncertainties in the states and the geometric variables obtained from the sensory system are characterized by probability density functions. Given the states and their uncertainties, the goal is to determine the probability of collision in a dynamic environment. Two approaches are discussed: (1) The virtual configuration space (VCS), and (2) the rates of change of the visibility angles. The VCS is a transformation of observer that reduces collision detection with a moving object to collision detection with a stationary object. This approach allows to create simple geometric collision cones. Error propagation models are used to solve the problem when going from the VCS to the configuration space. The second approach derives the collision conditions in terms of the rate of change of the limit visibility angles. The probability of collision is then calculated. A comparison between the two methods is carried out. Results are illustrated using simulation, including Monte Carlo simulation.

Collision Risk Modeling in the Northern Pacific Airspace under Separation Reduction and Improvements in Navigational Performance

2006 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 257-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theresa Brewer-Dougherty ◽  
Brian Colamosca ◽  
Christine Gerhardt-Falk ◽  
Dale Livingston ◽  
Lauren Martin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Northern Pacific

Collision risk modeling of air traffic

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henk Blom ◽  
Bert Bakker ◽  
Mariken Everdij ◽  
Marco van der Park
Keyword(s):  
Air Traffic ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Collision Risk

Collision Risk Analysis of FPSO-Tanker Offloading Operation

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haibo Chen ◽  
Torgeir Moan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Model ◽  
Human Action ◽  
Near Miss ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Forward Movement ◽  
Recovery Stage ◽  
Human Aspects ◽  
Machine Interaction ◽  
Tandem Offloading

Collision between FPSO and shuttle tanker in tandem offloading operation has caused a growing concern in the North Sea. Several recent contact incidents between FPSO/FSU and shuttle tanker have clearly demonstrated a high likelihood of contact between vessels in tandem offloading. The large masses involved, i.e. high potential impact energy, make the collision risk large. Traditional ship/platform collision risk model may not be effective for tandem offloading operation. Further more in a broader sense, offshore quantitative risk analyses generally focus more on technical aspects, little on human aspects. This leads to a hardware-centered risk control approach, which may not be effective in the face of risks in complex marine operations. A collision risk modeling approach for FPSO and tanker offloading operation is presented in this paper. The collision frequency is modeled in the initiating stage and the recovery stage. In the initiating stage, this paper is focused on tanker powered forward movement (PFM) scenarios. The initiation of tanker PFM involves a complex man machine interaction. The risk model is set up which integrates technical events, human actions and their interaction in the initiating stage. This model guides us further to identify the two failure prone situations where man machine interaction happened and resulted in most collision incidents. The study to quantitatively analyze these failure prone situations and minimize their occurrence is presented in a companion paper OMAE 28101. In the recovery stage, this paper is focused on the tanker initiated recovery. Based on the proposed probabilistic model for the recovery stage, possible recovery actions are identified and the event development is modeled from initiation of tanker PFM to the final outcome, i.e. collision or near miss. The success of recovery is analyzed from the human action timing perspective. Based on qualitative and preliminary quantitative analyses, recommendations are made to reduce the failure of recovery in design and operation.

Parameterizing a Metric of Midair Collision Risk

1997 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
William R. Knecht ◽  
Peter A. Hancock
Keyword(s):  
Psychometric Function ◽  
Curve Fitting ◽  
Flight Simulator ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Performance Curve ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Time To Contact ◽  
Non Linear

A non-linear mathematical collision risk modeling function previously proposed is here further evaluated. The function estimates probability of midair aircraft collision as a function of time to contact. The function yields an S-shaped performance curve (psychometric function) for collision risk. The function is evaluated by curve fitting to flight simulator data in simulated conflict scenarios.

Improving Organizational Execution and Effectiveness With Workforce Retention Risk Modeling

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Brandon ◽  
Edward Preble ◽  
Doug Nicholson ◽  
Michelle Bigham
Keyword(s):  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Workforce Retention
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