scholarly journals Variability in Nest Survival Rates and Implications to Nesting Studies

The Auk ◽  
1982 ◽  
Vol 99 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. T. Klett ◽  
Douglas H. Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Nest Survival ◽  
Survival Rates

Bayesian hierarchical models for estimating nest survival

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Yiqun Yang
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
Nest Survival ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
R Package ◽  
Spatial Effect ◽  
Survival Curves ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Nest Period ◽  
Overall Survival Rates

[ACCESS RESTRICTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI AT AUTHOR'S REQUEST.] Nest survival rate is a critical value in avian study to evaluate the landbirds populations. The widely used likelihood-based logistic regression model was evaluated in the first part of the dissertation. In this part, we investigated the importance of nest age in estimating survival rates and measured the model selection accuracy based on AIC results. Next we extended Bayesian Hierarchical Model to include different nest period lengths which estimated the overall survival rates and survival curves with combined nest period lengths. For unknown nest fate, the nest fate effect and the nest-specific covariates were included in the missing probability estimation. We also compared the results from incomplete data with the results from complete data analysis. The estimated overall survival rates and survival curves all supported the model performance. Finally, we included the spatial effect into the age-specific outcome rates estimation. The point-level nest observations explained the nest-specific spatial effect within each unit; while the grid-level data explained the spatial effect between different units. In each part, a simulation study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the model and an application was also provided. All the programs were written in FORTRAN and a R package (function) was created to make it more user friendly.

scholarly journals How Many Baskets? Clutch Sizes That Maximize Annual Fecundity of Multiple-Brooded Birds

The Auk ◽  
2001 ◽  
Vol 118 (4) ◽  
pp. 973-982 ◽  
Author(s):  
George L. Farnsworth ◽  
Theodore R. Simons ◽  
J. Brawn
Keyword(s):  
Clutch Size ◽  
Breeding Season ◽  
Nest Predation ◽  
Reproductive Effort ◽  
Nest Survival ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Season Length ◽  
Deterministic Models ◽  
Cavity Nesting ◽  
Theoretical Issues

Abstract We developed deterministic models on the basis of nest survival rates and renesting behavior capable of predicting annual fecundity in birds. The models calculate probabilities of fledging from one to four nests within a discrete breeding season. We used those models to address theoretical issues related to clutch size. In general, birds require at least one day to lay an egg, and many species delay incubation until their entire clutch is laid. Because it takes longer to complete a larger clutch, and fewer such clutches can fit into a limited breeding season, there exists a clutch size for which annual fecundity is maximized. We asked, for a given amount of reproductive effort (i.e. a set number of eggs), does the age-old maxim “don't put all your eggs in one basket” apply? If so, in how many “baskets” should a nesting bird place its eggs? The answer depends on both likelihood of nest predation and length of the breeding season. Those results are consistent with the observed increase in clutch size with latitude (shorter breeding season length) and larger clutch sizes characteristic of cavity-nesting species (with higher nest survival rates). The models also predict that the size of replacement clutches should decrease as the breeding season progresses, and that intraseasonal decline in clutch size should be more pronounced when the breeding season is short.

scholarly journals Effects of storms, angling, and nest predation during angling on smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) nest success

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (11) ◽  
pp. 2649-2660 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey B Steinhart ◽  
Nancy J Leonard ◽  
Roy A Stein ◽  
Elizabeth A Marschall
Keyword(s):  
Nest Predation ◽  
Lake Erie ◽  
Nest Success ◽  
Nest Survival ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Round Goby ◽  
Smallmouth Bass ◽  
Micropterus Dolomieu ◽  
Daily Survival ◽  
Daily Nest Survival

We studied how storms, angling, and nest predation during angling affected smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) nest survival in the Bass Islands, Lake Erie, Ohio, USA. Increasing angler effort and introduction of an exotic nest predator, round goby (Neogobious melanostomus), have raised concerns about smallmouth bass recruitment in Lake Erie. We surveyed smallmouth bass nests and calculated daily survival rates for nests assigned to different angling treatments: control, angling without predation, or angling with predation treatments. Only 30% of control nests were successful compared with 11% of angling without predation and 14% of angling with predation treatments. We used the Mayfield method and maximum likelihood models in the program MARK to estimate the survival rates for nests of different treatments and exposed to different numbers of storms. Although nest predators consumed about 35% of broods during angling, daily nest survival rates of both angling treatments were similar. Angling reduced nest survival compared with controls by approximately 5%. Storms reduced both nest success and daily survival. The best model predicting daily nest survival included the added effects of angling treatment and number of storms. Thus, whereas storms and angling affected smallmouth bass nest survival, nest predation during angling did not.

Bayesian hierarchical models for estimating nest survival

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Yiqun Yang
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
Nest Survival ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
R Package ◽  
Spatial Effect ◽  
Survival Curves ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Nest Period ◽  
Overall Survival Rates

[ACCESS RESTRICTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI AT AUTHOR'S REQUEST.] Nest survival rate is a critical value in avian study to evaluate the landbirds populations. The widely used likelihood-based logistic regression model was evaluated in the first part of the dissertation. In this part, we investigated the importance of nest age in estimating survival rates and measured the model selection accuracy based on AIC results. Next we extended Bayesian Hierarchical Model to include different nest period lengths which estimated the overall survival rates and survival curves with combined nest period lengths. For unknown nest fate, the nest fate effect and the nest-specific covariates were included in the missing probability estimation. We also compared the results from incomplete data with the results from complete data analysis. The estimated overall survival rates and survival curves all supported the model performance. Finally, we included the spatial effect into the age-specific outcome rates estimation. The point-level nest observations explained the nest-specific spatial effect within each unit; while the grid-level data explained the spatial effect between different units. In each part, a simulation study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the model and an application was also provided. All the programs were written in FORTRAN and a R package (function) was created to make it more user friendly.

scholarly journals Time-Specific Variation in Passerine Nest Survival: New Insights into Old Questions

The Auk ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 122 (2) ◽  
pp. 661-672 ◽  
Author(s):  
Todd A. Grant ◽  
Terry L. Shaffer ◽  
Elizabeth M. Madden ◽  
Pamela J. Pietz
Keyword(s):  
Life Histories ◽  
Nest Survival ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Egg Laying ◽  
Species Variation ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Bird Conservation ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Brood Rearing ◽  
Time Specific

Abstract Understanding nest survival is critical to bird conservation and to studies of avian life history. Nest survival likely varies with nest age and date, but until recently researchers had only limited tools to efficiently address those sources of variability. Beginning with Mayfield (1961), many researchers have averaged survival rates within time-specific categories (e.g. egg and nestling stages; early and late nesting dates). However, Mayfield’s estimator assumes constant survival within categories, and violations of that assumption can lead to biased estimates. We used the logistic-exposure method to examine nest survival as a function of nest age and date in Clay-colored Sparrows (Spizella pallida) and Vesper Sparrows (Pooecetes gramineus) breeding in north-central North Dakota. Daily survival rates increased during egg laying, decreased during incubation to a low shortly after hatch, and then increased during brood rearing in both species. Variation in survival with nest age suggests that traditional categorical averaging using Mayfield’s or similar methods would have been inappropriate for this study; similar variation may bias results of other studies. Nest survival also varied with date. For both species, survival was high during the peak of nest initiations in late May and early June and declined throughout the remainder of the nesting season. On the basis of our results, we encourage researchers to consider models of nest survival that involve continuous time-specific explanatory variables (e.g. nest age or date). We also encourage researchers to document nest age as precisely as possible (e.g. by candling eggs) to facilitate age-specific analyses. Models of nest survival that incorporate time-specific information may provide insights that are unavailable from averaged data. Determining time-specific patterns in nest survival may improve our understanding of predator-prey interactions, evolution of avian life histories, and aspects of population dynamics that are critical to bird conservation.

scholarly journals Revisiting Effects of Hunting on Mourning Dove Nest Survival

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 102-110
Author(s):  
John H. Schulz ◽  
Xiaoming Gao ◽  
Peng Shao ◽  
Zhuoqiong He ◽  
Joshua J. Millspaugh
Keyword(s):  
Nest Survival ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Mourning Dove ◽  
Hunting Season ◽  
Basic Premise ◽  
Survival Estimate ◽  
Zenaida Macroura ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Credible Intervals ◽  
Daily Nest Survival

Abstract We reconstructed a historical dataset from a national mourning dove Zenaida macroura nesting study evaluating the effects of hunting on nesting birds during the September portion of the hunting season using Bayesian hierarchical models; the reconstructed dataset contained 707 nests. The original nest survival estimate of 96.3% (nonhunted zones) fell within the range of our average daily nest survival rates and credible intervals (CI) of 97.2% (95% CI: 96.2–98.0%) for nonhunted, but the original nest survival estimate of 95.5% (hunted zones) was lower than our average daily nest survival rates of 96.9% (95% CI: 96.1–97.7%) for hunted zones. Similarly, overall nest survival for areas and years combined for hunted zones was 44.3% (95% CI: 35.3%, 53.9%) and 48.1% (95% CI: 36.9%, 59.8%) for nonhunted zones. The most parsimonious model contained the primary covariates of hunted or nonhunted status (hunted or paired hunted) or paired hunted or nonhunted nest searching plot (zone), and year. We observed lower nest survival for the hunted or delayed-hunt zones compared to the zones with hunted or nonhunted season structure. Regional differences may be explained by states with early and late hunting seasons separated by ≥ 21 d compared to other pairs where hunted and nonhunted areas occurred simultaneously. Our reanalysis provides managers additional assurance that the basic premise of limited or no effect of harvest on mourning dove populations is still valid but continued monitoring of population status is warranted.

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