Comparative Accuracy of Management's Annual Earnings Forecast

1978 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bikki Jaggi
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Comparative Accuracy ◽  
Annual Earnings

scholarly journals The Relationship between Delay in Announcing Quarterly Forecasts of Annual Earnings and the Type of Earnings News

Organizacija ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 64-71
Author(s):  
Mahdi Moradi ◽  
Mahdi Salehi ◽  
Seyyed Saeed Mehrdad Ayask
Keyword(s):  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Financial News ◽  
Annual Earnings ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Unique Context

The current study aims to examine the relationship between delay in the announcement of quarterly forecasts of annual earnings and the type of earnings news in a unique context. Running a multiple linear regression on data collected from Rahavard Novin software and the companies’ financial statements, is the method of this study to investigate this relationship. Consistent with the pattern of good news early, bad news late, it was found that there is a positive relationship between the bad news type and the amount of delay in announcing quarterly forecast of annual earnings; so that the firms with negative adjustments in earnings forecast (bad news), on average, have 12 more days delay in the announcement. Considering other variables showed that as coverage percentage - a sign of success - increases, the amount of delay in announcing earnings forecast decreases, but companies with losses per share, on average, have an additional delay of about 6 days. The results obtained indicate that at least, in some industries there is certain time for reporting. Finally, it became clear that in the period after the adoption of the new disclosure instruction, despite the increased deadline, the amount of delay in earnings announcement has declined by about 2 days. In this study, for the first time in Iran, one of the company’s financial news (quarterly forecasts of annual earnings), have been classified into good and bad, based on comparison with the market expectation, and the relationship between the news type and the amount of delay in announcing the news, has been examined.

scholarly journals The incremental information content of half-yearly earnings data releases by South African companies

1986 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 130-138
Author(s):  
R. F. Knight ◽  
J. F. Affleck-Graves
Keyword(s):  
Information Content ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Good News ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Johannesburg Stock Exchange ◽  
News Announcements ◽  
Incremental Information ◽  
Annual Earnings

In this article the information content of half-yearly earnings announcements is examined. Both annual and interim announcements are examined using the Abnormal Performance Index (API) methodology and it is shown that both sets of announcements provide incremental information. The results obtained indicate that, on average, the second-half announcements prove more informative than the second-half reports. Nevertheless, the first-half reports are still shown to provide significant incremental information. In addition, the results obtained are consistent with previous results in the sense that the API plots indicate asymmetrical behaviour with respect to 'good news' and 'bad news' announcements. Finally, it is shown that an investment strategy based on a foreknowledge of half-yearly earnings forecast errors provides higher returns than a similar strategy based on annual earnings forecast errors. This clear indication of the information content of half-yearly announcements leads the authors to speculate on whether quarterly reporting might not be in the interests of shareholders on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.

scholarly journals Analysts Earnings Forecast Accuracy And Activity: A Time-Series Analysis

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Myring ◽  
William Wrege
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Specific Factors ◽  
Annual Earnings

We examine time-series variations in the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts and analyst-specific factors that may explain these variations.  Our analysis shows that the accuracy of analysts’ annual earnings forecast accuracy has increased over our sample period (1984-2006).  In addition, forecasts have become more timely and frequent and analysts tend to issue forecasts for more consecutive years before being replaced.  We also find evidence that analysts issue forecasts for fewer companies per year and have a greater degree of industry-specific specialization.  Results of our analysis suggest that changes in analyst-specific characteristics have enhanced analysts’ ability to make accurate forecasts.

The Interactive Role of Difficulty and Incentives in Explaining the Annual Earnings Forecast Walkdown

2016 ◽  
Vol 91 (4) ◽  
pp. 995-1021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark T. Bradshaw ◽  
Lian Fen Lee ◽  
Kyle Peterson
Keyword(s):  
Interactive Effect ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Analyst Forecast ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Strategic Incentives ◽  
Psychology Literature ◽  
Annual Earnings

ABSTRACT The within-year walkdown of analysts' earnings forecasts has largely been attributed to analysts' incentives to curry favor with managers. We appeal to cognitive psychology literature on motivated reasoning and propose that forecasting difficulty interacts with such incentives to yield the observed walkdown. Higher forecasting difficulty generates a wider range of outcomes from which analysts can justify optimistically biased forecasts. In regression analyses, we find that the interaction between analysts' incentives for optimism and difficulty exhibits the strongest effect on earnings walkdowns. We also examine revenue forecasts as a benchmark of lower forecasting difficulty and find that revenue walkdowns are relatively diminutive. However, when analysts forecast losses, revenue forecasts are more critical and exhibit markedly steeper walkdowns. Our results suggest that analyst forecast walkdowns are better characterized by an interactive effect between analysts' strategic incentives for optimism and forecasting difficulty. JEL Classifications: G17; M41. Data Availability: Data are available from public sources identified in the text.

Reporting Earnings at Summer Technology—A Capstone Case Involving Intermediate Accounting Topics

2005 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Kohlbeck
Keyword(s):  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Financial Statement ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Business Decisions ◽  
Reporting Decisions ◽  
Annual Earnings ◽  
Reported Earnings

Summer Technology, Inc. (the Company) is a fast-growing high-technology firm and is facing many pressures, including those related to financial reporting. Financial analysts, however, are optimistic about the future of the Company. The firm is about to report its first annual profit, and the preliminary unreported results are just short of the analysts' consensus annual earnings forecast. This case requires financial analysis to evaluate a number of judgments involved in preparing financial statements and to prepare a recommendation to management with respect to reported earnings per share. The case's learning objectives are: (1) to increase understanding and exposure to the integration of financial reporting decisions with financial statement analysis, (2) to help students understand how business decisions impact reporting, (3) to demonstrate how decisions may be influenced by pressures to manage earnings and produce desirable financial results, and (4) to raise ethical issues in an accounting setting.

scholarly journals An Investigation Of The Comparative Accuracy And Bias Of Equity Securities Analysts East And West European Firms Earnings Forecasts

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arsen M. Djatej ◽  
Robert H. S. Sarikas ◽  
David L. Senteney
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Error ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
East European ◽  
Securities Analysts ◽  
Comparative Accuracy ◽  
West European ◽  
Equity Securities

This research investigates the comparative accuracy and bias of West European and East European firms equity securities analysts earnings forecasts for 29 European countries 12 of which are characterized as being East European. We utilize measures of equity securities analysts earnings forecast accuracy and bias in making comparisons of the statistical properties of earnings forecasts for firms having domiciles in East European and West European countries. Our results indicate that securities analysts earnings forecasts for companies domiciled with East European countries display larger forecast error and greater degree of optimistic forecast bias. Our results persist after controlling for cross-listing of ADRs on US securities exchanges. We generalize our results using the growing literature on the ever-changing characteristics of the Russian people, Russian business professionals and the rapidly evolving Russian stock market and the transitional Russian political economy.

Augmented reality–assisted pedicle screw insertion: a cadaveric proof-of-concept study

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camilo A. Molina ◽  
Nicholas Theodore ◽  
A. Karim Ahmed ◽  
Erick M. Westbroek ◽  
Yigal Mirovsky ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Augmented Reality ◽  
Pedicle Screw ◽  
User Experience ◽  
Pedicle Screws ◽  
Screw Insertion ◽  
Pedicle Screw Insertion ◽  
Insertion Method ◽  
Comparative Accuracy ◽  
Placement Accuracy ◽  
Surgical Field

OBJECTIVEAugmented reality (AR) is a novel technology that has the potential to increase the technical feasibility, accuracy, and safety of conventional manual and robotic computer-navigated pedicle insertion methods. Visual data are directly projected to the operator’s retina and overlaid onto the surgical field, thereby removing the requirement to shift attention to a remote display. The objective of this study was to assess the comparative accuracy of AR-assisted pedicle screw insertion in comparison to conventional pedicle screw insertion methods.METHODSFive cadaveric male torsos were instrumented bilaterally from T6 to L5 for a total of 120 inserted pedicle screws. Postprocedural CT scans were obtained, and screw insertion accuracy was graded by 2 independent neuroradiologists using both the Gertzbein scale (GS) and a combination of that scale and the Heary classification, referred to in this paper as the Heary-Gertzbein scale (HGS). Non-inferiority analysis was performed, comparing the accuracy to freehand, manual computer-navigated, and robotics-assisted computer-navigated insertion accuracy rates reported in the literature. User experience analysis was conducted via a user experience questionnaire filled out by operators after the procedures.RESULTSThe overall screw placement accuracy achieved with the AR system was 96.7% based on the HGS and 94.6% based on the GS. Insertion accuracy was non-inferior to accuracy reported for manual computer-navigated pedicle insertion based on both the GS and the HGS scores. When compared to accuracy reported for robotics-assisted computer-navigated insertion, accuracy achieved with the AR system was found to be non-inferior when assessed with the GS, but superior when assessed with the HGS. Last, accuracy results achieved with the AR system were found to be superior to results obtained with freehand insertion based on both the HGS and the GS scores. Accuracy results were not found to be inferior in any comparison. User experience analysis yielded “excellent” usability classification.CONCLUSIONSAR-assisted pedicle screw insertion is a technically feasible and accurate insertion method.

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