The Interactive Role of Difficulty and Incentives in Explaining the Annual Earnings Forecast Walkdown

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Thomas Bradshaw ◽  
Lian Fen Lee ◽  
Kyle Peterson
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Annual Earnings

The Interactive Role of Difficulty and Incentives in Explaining the Annual Earnings Forecast Walkdown

2016 ◽  
Vol 91 (4) ◽  
pp. 995-1021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark T. Bradshaw ◽  
Lian Fen Lee ◽  
Kyle Peterson
Keyword(s):  
Interactive Effect ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Analyst Forecast ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Strategic Incentives ◽  
Psychology Literature ◽  
Annual Earnings

ABSTRACT The within-year walkdown of analysts' earnings forecasts has largely been attributed to analysts' incentives to curry favor with managers. We appeal to cognitive psychology literature on motivated reasoning and propose that forecasting difficulty interacts with such incentives to yield the observed walkdown. Higher forecasting difficulty generates a wider range of outcomes from which analysts can justify optimistically biased forecasts. In regression analyses, we find that the interaction between analysts' incentives for optimism and difficulty exhibits the strongest effect on earnings walkdowns. We also examine revenue forecasts as a benchmark of lower forecasting difficulty and find that revenue walkdowns are relatively diminutive. However, when analysts forecast losses, revenue forecasts are more critical and exhibit markedly steeper walkdowns. Our results suggest that analyst forecast walkdowns are better characterized by an interactive effect between analysts' strategic incentives for optimism and forecasting difficulty. JEL Classifications: G17; M41. Data Availability: Data are available from public sources identified in the text.

The Role of Earnings Levels in Annual Earnings-Returns Studies

1992 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 286 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashiq Ali ◽  
Paul Zarowin
Keyword(s):  
Annual Earnings

scholarly journals The Relationship between Delay in Announcing Quarterly Forecasts of Annual Earnings and the Type of Earnings News

Organizacija ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 64-71
Author(s):  
Mahdi Moradi ◽  
Mahdi Salehi ◽  
Seyyed Saeed Mehrdad Ayask
Keyword(s):  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Financial News ◽  
Annual Earnings ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Unique Context

The current study aims to examine the relationship between delay in the announcement of quarterly forecasts of annual earnings and the type of earnings news in a unique context. Running a multiple linear regression on data collected from Rahavard Novin software and the companies’ financial statements, is the method of this study to investigate this relationship. Consistent with the pattern of good news early, bad news late, it was found that there is a positive relationship between the bad news type and the amount of delay in announcing quarterly forecast of annual earnings; so that the firms with negative adjustments in earnings forecast (bad news), on average, have 12 more days delay in the announcement. Considering other variables showed that as coverage percentage - a sign of success - increases, the amount of delay in announcing earnings forecast decreases, but companies with losses per share, on average, have an additional delay of about 6 days. The results obtained indicate that at least, in some industries there is certain time for reporting. Finally, it became clear that in the period after the adoption of the new disclosure instruction, despite the increased deadline, the amount of delay in earnings announcement has declined by about 2 days. In this study, for the first time in Iran, one of the company’s financial news (quarterly forecasts of annual earnings), have been classified into good and bad, based on comparison with the market expectation, and the relationship between the news type and the amount of delay in announcing the news, has been examined.

scholarly journals Voluntary intellectual capital disclosure and earnings forecast in Indonesia–Malaysia–Thailand growth triangle's pharmaceuticals sector

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saarce Elsye Hatane ◽  
Jefferson Clarenzo Diandra ◽  
Josua Tarigan ◽  
Ferry Jie
Keyword(s):  
Pharmaceutical Industry ◽  
Intellectual Capital ◽  
Strategic Alliances ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Financial Analysts ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Relational Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Earnings Forecasting

PurposeThis study examines the role of intellectual capital disclosure (ICD) on earnings forecasting by analysts in the pharmaceutical industry in emerging countries, particularly in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. This study specifically examines the role of each component of the ICD on analysts' forecasts, which consists of errors of forecasted earnings, the standard deviation of forecasted earnings and analyst recommendations.Design/methodology/approachPanel data analysis is conducted using a sample of 17 companies from pharmaceuticals industries in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand – Growth Triangle (IMT-GT), which are listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), Malaysia Stock Exchange (MYX) and Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) from 2010 to 2017. Secondary data is obtained from Bloomberg and Annual report, where they are being analyzed to measure the ICD and gather the control variables.FindingsThe results indicate that the three components of ICD, namely human capital disclosure (HCD), structural capital disclosure (SCD) and relational capital disclosure (RCD), insignificantly influence average analysts' consensus recommendation and analysts' earnings forecast dispersion. However, the findings show a significant negative influence of relational capital disclosure (RCD) on analysts' earnings forecast error. In contrast, HCD and SCD have an insignificant impact.Practical implicationsTransparency in disclosing activities related to external parties is essential for the pharmaceutical industry. It is found that relational capital disclosure is the only ICD indicator that can strengthen analysts' profit predictions. Transparency about company activities in maintaining customer satisfaction and activities related to strategic alliances with other organizations are two critical things that can accommodate the accuracy of earnings forecasting from analysts in pharmaceutical companies.Originality/valueThis study contributes to ICD-related research by discussing the financial analyst's response to this voluntary disclosure in the pharmaceutical industry, particularly in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. The selected observation period is seven years, starting one year after the global financial crisis. The results showed that the disclosure of IC is not an exciting thing for financial analysts. In forecasting current earnings, financial analysts are more interested in errors than the previous year's estimates.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Information: Tinjauan Berdasarkan Rekomendasi Analis Sekuritas dan Revisi Earning Forecast

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 88
Author(s):  
Cicilia Erna Susilawati
Keyword(s):  
Asymmetric Information ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Market Participant ◽  
Earning Forecast ◽  
Asymmetry Of Information ◽  
Securities Analysts ◽  
Forecast Revision

Trading in the stock market occur due to differences in opinion on the expected value of the securities. In the other side, asymmetric information between investors and companies caused the stock price does not reflect the real price. So, asymmetric information should be reduced. Information by securities analysts is an information that is expected to reduce that. This study investigates the performance of securities analysts through its role in reducing asymmetric information. This is motivated by some previous studies that stated that the Indonesian capital market is inefficient, because high levels of asymmetric information. Analysts is considered as inform market participant who can reduce the asymmetric information so as to make capital market to be efficient. The role of securities analysts is seen through the product. There are stock recommendation and earnings forecast revision. Testing the consistency of the analyst's stock recommendations and earnings forecast revision before testing their impact on asymmetric information. The results showed that output in the form of stock securities analysts and earnings forecast recommendation are consistent but has not been able to reduce the asymmetry of information that occurs between investors and companies.

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