Causal Attribution and Economic Voting in American Congressional Elections

2003 ◽  
Vol 56 (3) ◽  
pp. 271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brad T. Gomez ◽  
J. Matthew Wilson
2016 ◽  
Vol 131 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordan M. Ragusa ◽  
Matthew Tarpey

1999 ◽  
Vol 93 (3) ◽  
pp. 575-590 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth M. Roberts ◽  
Erik Wibbels

Three different theoretical explanations are tested for the exceptionally high level of electoral volatility found in contemporary Latin America: economic voting, institutional characteristics of political regimes and party systems, and the structure and organization of class cleavages. A pooled cross-sectional time-series regression analysis is conducted on 58 congressional elections and 43 presidential elections in 16 Latin American countries during the 1980s and 1990s. Institutional variables have the most consistent effect on volatility, while the influence of economic performance is heavily contingent upon the type of election and whether the dependent variable is operationalized as incumbent vote change or aggregate electoral volatility. The results demonstrate that electoral volatility is a function of short-term economic perturbations, the institutional fragilities of both democratic regimes and party systems, and relatively fluid cleavage structures.


2003 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 209-218
Author(s):  
A. N’gbala ◽  
N. R. Branscombe

When do causal attribution and counterfactual thinking facilitate one another, and when do the two responses overlap? Undergraduates (N = 78) both explained and undid, in each of two orders, events that were described either with their potential causes or not. The time to perform either response was recorded. Overall, mutation response times were shorter when performed after an attribution was made than before, while attribution response times did not vary as a consequence of sequence. Depending on whether the causes of the target events were described in the scenario or not, respondents undid the actor and assigned causality to another antecedent, or pointed to the actor for both responses. These findings suggest that counterfactual mutation is most likely to be facilitated by attribution, and that mutation and attribution responses are most likely to overlap when no information about potential causes of the event is provided.


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