Reciprocity, Bullying, and International Cooperation: Time-series Analysis of the Bosnia Conflict

1997 ◽  
Vol 91 (3) ◽  
pp. 515-529 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua S. Goldstein ◽  
Jon C. Pevehouse
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
International Cooperation ◽  
Evolution Of Cooperation ◽  
Response Patterns ◽  
Strategic Response ◽  
Conflict And Cooperation ◽  
Regional Conflicts ◽  
Neoliberal Institutionalism ◽  
Events Data

Although the role of reciprocity in international cooperation is central to neoliberal institutionalism, empirical understanding of the concept remains weak. We analyze strategic response patterns—the use of reciprocity or inverse response (bullying)—in the Bosnia conflict from 1992 to 1995. We construct weekly time series of conflict and cooperation among the parties to the Bosnia war, using machine-coded events data. Time-series statistical analysis identifies several important patterns of strategic response, both reciprocal and inverse. These include bilateral responses, which are central to the concepts of reciprocity and evolution of cooperation, and triangular responses, which are central to the debates on containment versus accommodation in regional conflicts. Specifically, Serb forces displayed inverse triangular response, cooperating toward Bosnia after being punished by NATO. Outside powers displayed triangular reciprocity, increasing hostility toward Serb forces after Serbian attacks on the Bosnian government.

scholarly journals Conflict and Cooperation in International Relations: Theoretical Contributions of the Debate between New Realism and Neoliberalism

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 659-670
Author(s):  
Omran Ali
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
International Cooperation ◽  
International Institutions ◽  
Main Issue ◽  
Power Politics ◽  
New Realism ◽  
Conflict And Cooperation

This paper deals with the debate between neo-realism and neo-liberalism within the field of international relations and highlights the most important propositions of the two theories, especially regarding their views on the structure of international relations and whether it is characterized by anarchy and conflict or cooperation. The study of conflict and cooperation in international relations has been one of the main tasks of research and analysis for theorists and researchers of international relations, and this conflict-cooperation nexus has become the main issue in the debate between the two prevailing theories in international relations. Neorealism and neoliberalism are the most influential theories on international relations, and the debate between them has considered one of the most important one in the field of international relations. This research seeks to clarify and explain the theoretical contributions of each of the two theories regarding conflict and cooperation in international relations, and the extent to which neoliberal assumptions, especially with regard to the role of international institutions in increasing international cooperation, has contributed to reducing the dominance of the realistic vision in international relations, especially with regard to conflict and anarchy. It argues that the debate between neorealism and neoliberalism did not significantly contribute to developing the theory of international relations, as this debate did not contribute significantly to reducing the dominance of power politics in international relations and solving the international problems resulting from it.

Democracy and Cooperative Networks

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeev Maoz
Keyword(s):  
Network Analysis ◽  
International Cooperation ◽  
Network Effects ◽  
Cooperative Networks ◽  
Group Level ◽  
Recent Contribution ◽  
Conflict And Cooperation ◽  
Units Of Analysis ◽  
Network Studies

This chapter examines the role of democracy and other characteristics that affect cooperation and conflict in the traditional literature. It assesses the more recent contribution of network analytic studies to the understanding of conflict and cooperation processes. Key contributions of network studies include controlling for network effects on dyadic conflict and cooperation, corroborating some of the key results of non-network studies, and clarifying important debates in the literature on cooperation and conflict. Most of the contributions of the network analytic studies of conflict and cooperation are dyadic in nature. The few systemic or group-level analyses of international cooperation show significant promise, but until recently there has been little effort to extend traditional units of analysis to some of the more important units derived from network analysis. The chapter demonstrates some of the potential of such approaches via an analysis of democracy’s role in the emergence of cooperative international communities.

The role of parental self-regulation and household chaos in parent-toddler interactions: A time-series study.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanne B. Geeraerts ◽  
Joyce Endendijk ◽  
Kirby Deater-Deckard ◽  
Jorg Huijding ◽  
Marike H. F. Deutz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Self Regulation ◽  
Household Chaos ◽  
Time Series Study ◽  
Series Study

scholarly journals Who’s Afraid of Adversariality? Conflict and Cooperation in Argumentation

Topoi ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catarina Dutilh Novaes
Keyword(s):  
Conflict Management ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Intrinsic Property ◽  
Prima Facie ◽  
Consensus Building ◽  
Conflict And Cooperation ◽  
Contextual Features

AbstractSince at least the 1980s, the role of adversariality in argumentation has been extensively discussed within different domains. Prima facie, there seem to be two extreme positions on this issue: argumentation should (ideally at least) never be adversarial, as we should always aim for cooperative argumentative engagement; argumentation should be and in fact is always adversarial, given that adversariality (when suitably conceptualized) is an intrinsic property of argumentation. I here defend the view that specific instances of argumentation are (and should be) adversarial or cooperative to different degrees. What determines whether an argumentative situation should be primarily adversarial or primarily cooperative are contextual features and background conditions external to the argumentative situation itself, in particular the extent to which the parties involved have prior conflicting or else convergent interests. To further develop this claim, I consider three teloi that are frequently associated with argumentation: the epistemic telos, the consensus-building telos, and the conflict management telos. I start with a brief discussion of the concepts of adversariality, cooperation, and conflict in general. I then sketch the main lines of the debates in the recent literature on adversariality in argumentation. Next, I discuss the three teloi of argumentation listed above in turn, emphasizing the roles of adversariality and cooperation for each of them.

scholarly journals The Role of Assumptions in Ohlson Model Performance: Lessons for Improving Equity-Value Modeling

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 513
Author(s):  
Olga Fullana ◽  
Mariano González ◽  
David Toscano
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Listed Firms ◽  
Valuation Model ◽  
Residual Income Valuation ◽  
Equity Value ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Time Series Approach ◽  
Linear Information

In this paper, we test whether the short-run econometric conditions for the basic assumptions of the Ohlson valuation model hold, and then we relate these results with the fulfillment of the short-run econometric conditions for this model to be effective. Better future modeling motivated us to analyze to what extent the assumptions involved in this seminal model are not good enough approximations to solve the firm valuation problem, causing poor model performance. The model is based on the well-known dividend discount model and the residual income valuation model, and it adds a linear information model, which is a time series model by nature. Therefore, we adopt the time series approach. In the presence of non-stationary variables, we focus our research on US-listed firms for which more than forty years of data with the required cointegration properties to use error correction models are available. The results show that the clean surplus relation assumption has no impact on model performance, while the unbiased accounting property assumption has an important effect on it. The results also emphasize the uselessness of forcing valuation models to match the value displacement property of dividends.

scholarly journals Calibrating the CreditRisk+ Model at Different Time Scales and in Presence of Temporal Autocorrelation †

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (14) ◽  
pp. 1679
Author(s):  
Jacopo Giacomelli ◽  
Luca Passalacqua
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Statistical Error ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Sampling Period ◽  
Calibration Procedure ◽  
Industry Standards ◽  
Default Rate

The CreditRisk+ model is one of the industry standards for the valuation of default risk in credit loans portfolios. The calibration of CreditRisk+ requires, inter alia, the specification of the parameters describing the structure of dependence among default events. This work addresses the calibration of these parameters. In particular, we study the dependence of the calibration procedure on the sampling period of the default rate time series, that might be different from the time horizon onto which the model is used for forecasting, as it is often the case in real life applications. The case of autocorrelated time series and the role of the statistical error as a function of the time series period are also discussed. The findings of the proposed calibration technique are illustrated with the support of an application to real data.

scholarly journals Seasonality in extra-pulmonary tuberculosis notifications in Germany 2004-2014- a time series analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanja Charles ◽  
Matthias Eckardt ◽  
Basel Karo ◽  
Walter Haas ◽  
Stefan Kröger
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Disease Onset ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Pulmonary Tb ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Disease Site ◽  
Extra Pulmonary

Abstract Background Seasonality in tuberculosis (TB) has been found in different parts of the world, showing a peak in spring/summer and a trough in autumn/winter. The evidence is less clear which factors drive seasonality. It was our aim to identify and evaluate seasonality in the notifications of TB in Germany, additionally investigating the possible variance of seasonality by disease site, sex and age group. Methods We conducted an integer-valued time series analysis using national surveillance data. We analysed the reported monthly numbers of started treatments between 2004 and 2014 for all notified TB cases and stratified by disease site, sex and age group. Results We detected seasonality in the extra-pulmonary TB cases (N = 11,219), with peaks in late spring/summer and troughs in fall/winter. For all TB notifications together (N = 51,090) and for pulmonary TB only (N = 39,714) we did not find a distinct seasonality. Additional stratified analyses did not reveal any clear differences between age groups, the sexes, or between active and passive case finding. Conclusion We found seasonality in extra-pulmonary TB only, indicating that seasonality of disease onset might be specific to the disease site. This could point towards differences in disease progression between the different clinical disease manifestations. Sex appears not to be an important driver of seasonality, whereas the role of age remains unclear as this could not be sufficiently investigated.

scholarly journals Mapping Forest Fuels through Vegetation Phenology: The Role of Coarse-Resolution Satellite Time-Series

PLoS ONE ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. e0119811 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sofia Bajocco ◽  
Eleni Dragoz ◽  
Ioannis Gitas ◽  
Daniela Smiraglia ◽  
Luca Salvati ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Vegetation Phenology ◽  
Forest Fuels ◽  
Coarse Resolution
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