The Problem of Underestimating the Residual Error Variance in Forward Stepwise Regression

Author(s):  
L. S. Freedman ◽  
D. Pee ◽  
D. N. Midthune
1985 ◽  
Vol 104 (2) ◽  
pp. 317-323 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carol Starr ◽  
Janet Suttle ◽  
A. G. Morgan ◽  
D. B. Smith

SummaryPredictions of nitrogen, oil and glucosinolate concentration in rapeseed samples were made by near infrared reflectance analysis after various grinding treatments. Also examined were the effects of normalizing reflectance data and the possible advantage of using all combinations of two and three wavelengths in the calibration regression analysis over forward stepwise regression. The main conclusion was that drying the samples prior to a controlled grinding treatment gave the best results, although acceptable results for selection purposes could be obtained using whole seeds to predict nitrogen and oil. None of the treatments of the seed or reflectance data allowed acceptable prediction of glucosinolate content.


2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 257-269
Author(s):  
Erik Joosten ◽  
Marion Bogers ◽  
Robert Beeres ◽  
Robert Bertrand

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify and test predictors for countries to comply with the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) anti-money laundering and terrorist financing recommendations. Design/methodology/approach The authors conduct a quantitative study to explore which factors predict compliance of countries. They include the compliance scores of 196 countries. Findings The results of a forward stepwise regression analysis show that a country’s wealth, measured as gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, is the most important predictor for compliance. This result supports earlier academic work about predictors for compliance (Simmons, 1998; Giraldo and Trinkunas, 2007; Whitaker, 2010). The other factors identified suffering from terrorist attacks, relative financial market dominance, tourism sector and the degree of democracy do not explain additional variance in compliance. Practical implications This research sheds light on compliance as a concept. For policymakers, accountants, companies and governments, it is important to understand why compliance occurs and why not. Originality/value The empirical results indicate that, in contrast to common belief, countries that suffer more from terrorism are not more compliant. Moreover, the rate of democracy, a relative dominant financial market and a strong tourism sector do not stimulate compliance with anti-terrorist financing standards.


2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. e0701
Author(s):  
Renhe Zhang ◽  
Xiyuan Hu

AbstractThe empirical best linear unbiased prediction (eBLUP) is usually based on the assumption that the residual error variance (REV) is homogenous. This may be unrealistic, and therefore limits the accuracy of genotype evaluations for multi-location trials, where the REV often varies across locations. The objective of this contribution was to investigate the direct implications of the eBLUP with different considerations about REV based on the mixed model for evaluation of genotype simple effects (i.e. genotype effects at individual locations). A series of 14 multi-location trials from a rape-breeding program in the north of China were simultaneously analyzed from 2012 to 2014 using a randomized complete block design at each location. The results showed that the model with heterogeneous REV was more appropriate than the one with homogeneous REV in all of the trials according to model fitting statistics. Whether the REV differences across locations were accounted for in the analysis procedure influenced the variance estimate of related random effects and testing of the variance of genotype-location (G-L) interactions. Ignoring REV differences by use of the eBLUP could result not only in an inflation or deflation of statistical Type I error rates for pair-wise testing but also in an inaccurate ranking of genotype simple effects for these trials. Therefore, it is suggested that in application of the eBLUP for evaluation of genotype simple effects in multi-location trials, the heterogeneity of REV should be accounted for based on mixed model approaches with appropriate variance-covariance structure.


2001 ◽  
Vol 89 (3) ◽  
pp. 617-623 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joni L. Mihura ◽  
Elizabeth Nathan-Montano

This study investigated the relationship between Rorschach aggression variables and a self-report measure of interpersonal control and aggression (Structural Analysis of Social Behavior), rated for best and worst states, with 50 college students using forward stepwise regression analyses Aggressive Movement (AG) was related to the report of self-attack for the best state ratings The following findings were significant for the worst state ratings. AG was related to viewing the other as reacting as if attacked but the self as acting more affiliatively to the other. Aggressive Past (AgPast) was related to reacting to the other more submissively. A combined Aggressive Potential (AgPot)/Aggressive Content (AgC) variable was related to viewing the other as reacting less submissively and acting more dominantly. AgC was related to viewing the other as reacting less submissively. Methodological limitations are discussed, including potential problems regarding social desirability for the self-report aggression measure.


2010 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
pp. 507-513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changsoo Jang ◽  
Byeng Dong Youn ◽  
Ping F. Wang ◽  
Bongtae Han ◽  
Suk-Jin Ham

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-52
Author(s):  
Cheng Shen ◽  
Jinlin Zha ◽  
Jian Wu ◽  
Deming Zhao

AbstractInvestigations of variations and causes of near-surface wind speed (NWS) further understanding of the atmospheric changes and improve the ability of climate analysis and projections. NWS varies on multiple temporal scales; however, the centennial-scale variability in NWS and associated causes over China remains unknown. In this study, we employ the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) twentieth century reanalysis (ERA-20C) to study the centennial-scale changes in NWS from 1900–2010. Meanwhile, a forward stepwise regression algorithm is used to reveal the relationships between NWS and large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulations. The results show three unique periods in annual mean NWS over China from 1900–2010. The annual mean NWS displayed a decreasing trend of -0.87% decade-1 and -11.75% decade-1 from 1900–1925 and 1957–2010, respectively, which were caused by the decreases in the days with strong winds, with trends of -6.64 and -4.66 days decade-1, respectively. The annual mean NWS showed an upward trend of 55.47% decade-1 from 1926–1956, which was caused by increases in the days with moderate (0.43 days decade-1) and strong winds (23.55 days decade-1). The reconstructed wind speeds based on forward stepwise regression algorithm matched well with the original wind speeds; therefore, the decadal changes in NWS over China at centennial-scale were mainly induced by large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulations, with the total explanation power of 66%. The strongest explanation power was found in winter (74%), and the weakest explanation power was found in summer (46%).


1986 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 819-825 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald M. Burke ◽  
Maureen Hall

This study evaluated the effectiveness of the MMPI and other personal factors in predicting both the length of time the volunteer would be in the program and the quality of performance of the volunteer in a Companions for Children program. The MMPI scores of 67 volunteers, over a 2-yr. period, were evaluated. There were some significant correlations between longevity in program, specifically occupation, education, and scores on the Hysteria scale of the MMPI were negatively correlated. The staff-rated quality of the volunteers, education, and occupation were significantly correlated, as well as scores on the Psychasthenia scale of the MMPI. A forward stepwise regression, performed for longevity and rated quality, showed education, scores on the F scale, Hysteria scale, and Psychasthenia scale were the four best indicators of longevity. The best four indicators for rated quality were the F scale, Hypochondriasis scale, Schizophrenia scale, and the Social introversion-extroversion scale. Although the MMPI was a good screening device, it was not an adequate predictor of eventual longevity or quality in the program.


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