Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature

Author(s):  
Allan H. Murphy ◽  
Robert L. Winkler
2006 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 26-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kajal Lahiri ◽  
J George Wang

1989 ◽  
Vol 64 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1051-1055
Author(s):  
Yoshiaki Nakajima ◽  
Hirohiko Ohta

Decision making with probability forecasts of rainfall was investigated experimentally by considering three variables, i.e., the rainfall probability, the duration of being away from home, and the outdoor weather condition. 274 Japanese college students were asked to make decisions on the necessity for person A to take an umbrella with him under 16 different conditions. Analysis showed obviously that the necessity tended to increase as probability of rainfall rose, as duration became longer, and also as the outdoor weather was cloudy rather than clear. Discussion of these results considered recent studies of decision making and subjective probability.


1971 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry R. Schlenker ◽  
Robert Brown ◽  
James T. Tedeschi

1969 ◽  
Vol 79 (1, Pt.1) ◽  
pp. 133-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lee Roy Beach ◽  
James A. Wise

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document