An Examination of the Very Severe Ignorance of Keynes’s A Treatise on Probability Among Heterodox Economists and Their Erroneous Beliefs About Logical and Subjective Probability

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Emmett Brady
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Erroneous Beliefs

Subjective Probability of Receiving Harm as a Function of Attraction and Harm Delivered

1971 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry R. Schlenker ◽  
Robert Brown ◽  
James T. Tedeschi
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Probability

Subjective probability and decision strategy.

1969 ◽  
Vol 79 (1, Pt.1) ◽  
pp. 133-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lee Roy Beach ◽  
James A. Wise
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Decision Strategy

Erroneous Beliefs in Estimating Posterior Probability

1990 ◽  
Vol 17 (27) ◽  
pp. 59-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shin’ichi Ichikawa ◽  
Hiroshige Takeichi
Keyword(s):  
Posterior Probability ◽  
Erroneous Beliefs

When Contract’s Basic Assumptions Fail

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-32
Author(s):  
Hanoch Dagan ◽  
Ohad Somech
Keyword(s):  
Basic Assumption ◽  
Contract Law ◽  
Basic Assumptions ◽  
The World ◽  
Erroneous Beliefs

Modern contract law accords considerable significance to the basic assumptions on which a contract is made. It thus takes to heart a failure of a belief whose truthfulness is taken for granted by both parties. Where the failure results from the parties’ mistake at the time of formation, “the contract is voidable by the adversely affected party,” if that mistake “has a material effect on the agreed exchange of performances” and unless that party “bears the risk of the mistake.”1 Where, in turn, the failure of such a basic assumption results from the parties’ erroneous beliefs about future states of the world, a party’s duty to render performance may be discharged if they are not responsible for the supervening impracticability or frustration and “unless the language or the circumstances indicate the contrary.”2

scholarly journals Diagnostic evaluation with simulated probabilities

Evaluation ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 102-115
Author(s):  
Barbara Befani ◽  
Corinna Elsenbroich ◽  
Jen Badham
Keyword(s):  
Health Policy ◽  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Diagnostic Evaluation ◽  
Proof Of Concept ◽  
Third Way ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Strength Of Evidence ◽  
Evaluation Subjective

As policy makers require more rigorous assessments for the strength of evidence in Theory-Based evaluations, Bayesian logic is attracting increasing interest; however, the estimation of probabilities that this logic (almost) inevitably requires presents challenges. Probabilities can be estimated on the basis of empirical frequencies, but such data are often unavailable for most mechanisms that are objects of evaluation. Subjective probability elicitation techniques are well established in other fields and potentially applicable, but they present potential challenges and might not always be feasible. We introduce the community to a third way: simulated probabilities. We provide proof of concept that simulation can be used to estimate probabilities in diagnostic evaluation and illustrate our case with an application to health policy.

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