The Predictive Content of some Leading Economic Indicators for Future Stock Prices

1974 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryan Heatcotte ◽  
Vincent P. Apilado
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Leading Economic Indicators ◽  
Predictive Content

scholarly journals New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators

1989 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 351-394 ◽  
Author(s):  
James H. Stock ◽  
Mark W. Watson
Keyword(s):  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Leading Economic Indicators

The Objective and Subjective Economy and the Presidential Vote

2012 ◽  
Vol 45 (04) ◽  
pp. 620-624 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert S. Erikson ◽  
Christopher Wlezien
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Income Growth ◽  
Subjective Perceptions ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Leading Economic Indicators ◽  
Per Se ◽  
Incumbent Party ◽  
The University ◽  
Objective Indicators

The importance of the economy in US presidential elections is well established. Voters reward or punish incumbent party candidates based on the state of the economy. The electorate focuses particularly on economic change, not the level of the economy per se, and pays more attention to late-arriving change than earlier change. On these points there is a good amount of scholarly agreement (see e.g., Erikson and Wlezien 1996; Hibbs 1987). There is less agreement, however, on what specific indicators matter to voters. Some scholars rely on income growth, others on GDP growth, and yet others on subjective perceptions (see Abramowitz 2008; Campbell 2008; Holbrook 1996b; also see Campbell and Garand 2000). In our work, we have used the index of leading economic indicators, a composite of ten variables, including the University of Michigan's index of consumer expectations, stock prices, and eight other objective indicators.

scholarly journals RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS AS LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR

2018 ◽  
pp. 206-210
Author(s):  
LIA TOTLADZE
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Economic Indicator ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Methodological Issues ◽  
Leading Indicator ◽  
Leading Economic Indicators ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Selection Of

It is important to predict trends of economic development for any country. Researchers and practitioners use different ways for evaluation and forecasting economic activity. Identification of indicators, which change impact on the economy in general, is one of the widespread methods. The most appropriate tools to solve this problem are the leading indicators and indexes based on leading indicators. The selection of indicators depends on the specificity of the country’s economy. Among the leading economic indicators is the dynamics of applications for the Building permissions for private houses, and can also be successfully use residential transactions. Depending on the above, the paper deals the aspects of calculation of leading economic indicators. This paper analyses some aspects of the effectiveness of indicator for predicting economic activity and describes the methodological issues forward leading indicators. Particular attention is paid to analysis of residential transactions dynamics as a leading indicator as in theoretical as in practical terms. The article highlights the peculiarities of its implementation in Georgia.

Leading Economic Indicators, the Polls, and the Presidential Vote

2008 ◽  
Vol 41 (04) ◽  
pp. 703-707 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert S. Erikson ◽  
Christopher Wlezien
Keyword(s):  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
The Future ◽  
Leading Economic Indicators ◽  
The Moment

On the eve of the election, the impending result of the presidential vote can be seen fairly clearly from trial-heat polls. Earlier in the election year, the polls offer much less information about what will happen on Election Day (see Campbell 2008; Wlezien and Erikson 2002). The polls capture preferences to the moment and do not—because they cannot—anticipate how preferences will evolve in the future, as the campaign unfolds. Various things ultimately impact the final vote. The standing of the sitting president is important. The economy is too. Both can change as the election cycle evolves. To make matters worse, late-arriving economic shocks have a bigger impact on the electoral verdict than those that arrive earlier. This complicates accurately forecasting the vote well in advance.

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