Influences on Executive and Congressional Budgetary Priorities, 1955–1981

1987 ◽  
Vol 81 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark S. Kamlet ◽  
David C. Mowery
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Equation System ◽  
Executive Branch ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Institutional Influences ◽  
Political Variables ◽  
Budgetary Priorities

A reduced form equation system is used to analyze the influence of economic, political, and institutional influences on the budgetary priorities of the executive branch and Congress during fiscal 1955–81. Three related issues are considered: the extent to which political and macroeconomic factors affect priorities; the degree of interdependence among the components of the federal budget and between spending and revenues; and differences between the executive branch and Congress with respect to these issues. Both types of interdependence are present within both executive branch and congressional budgeting, although this interdependence is stronger within the executive branch. The influence of economic conditions on budgetary outcomes is strong but varies considerably across spending categories. There is no evidence of apolitical business cycle. Political variables exert a modest influence on the budgetary outcomes examined; differences between Democratic and Republican budgetary policies, as well as differences in the budgetary priorities of different presidential administrations, are small by comparison with the differences between executive and congressional policies.

EXPRESS: Households under Economic Change: How Micro- and Macroeconomic Conditions Shape Grocery Shopping Behavior

2021 ◽  
pp. 002224292110368
Author(s):  
Thomas P. Scholdra ◽  
Julian R. K. Wichmann ◽  
Maik Eisenbeiss ◽  
Werner J. Reinartz
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Shopping Behavior ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Grocery Shopping ◽  
National Brands ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Spending Behavior ◽  
Shopping Basket ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Structural Shifts

Economic conditions may significantly affect households' shopping behavior and, by extension, retailers' and manufacturers' firm performance. By explicitly distinguishing between two basic types of economic conditions—micro conditions in terms of households' personal income and macro conditions in terms of the business cycle—this study analyzes how households adjust their grocery shopping behavior. The authors observe more than 5,000 households over eight years and analyze shopping outcomes in terms of what, where, and how much they shop and spend. Results show that micro and macro conditions substantially influence shopping outcomes, but in very different ways. Microeconomic changes lead households to adjust primarily their overall purchase volume—that is, after losing income, households buy fewer products and spend less in total. In contrast, macroeconomic changes cause pronounced structural shifts in households' shopping basket allocation and spending behavior. Specifically, during contractions, households shift purchases toward private labels while also buying and consequently spending more than during expansions. During expansions, however, households increasingly purchase national brands but keep their total spending constant. The authors discuss psychological and sociological mechanisms that can explain the differential effects of micro and macro conditions on shopping behavior and develop important diagnostic and normative implications for retailers and manufacturers.

Manifestations of legislative shortcomings in the Iraqi constitution

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yamamah Kashkool ◽  
wael Al-bayati
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Right ◽  
Political Turmoil ◽  
Political Variables ◽  
Transitional Phase ◽  
New Phase

"The period of approving the Constitution of the Republic of Iraq for the year 2005 was surrounded by a state of political turmoil that usually accompanies any transitional phase that carries many political variables through the transition from a phase of dictatorial rule to a new phase bearing the features of democracy. In its approval, the lack of clarity in the political vision and the weakness of the constitutional legal culture of its authors, as well as the way in which it was approved by a popular referendum, which is voted on by yes or no, and does not allow an opportunity to discuss its articles and articles and diagnose its shortcomings. One of the shortcomings in our constitution is that it does not refer to regulating the resignation of the Prime Minister. This position has a political nature, and an administrative nature, and its occupant has the right to decide not to continue with this position and be satisfied with working in this field for any reason, and this must be in accordance with the context Organized legal, which is known as resignation., and this is what we dealt with in this research. For the purpose of researching this topic, we asked a research question that is... How can we address the legislative shortcomings that surrounded the Constitution of the Republic of Iraq for the year 2005 and related to regulating the resignation of the Prime Minister? From this research question, we derived several secondary research questions... 1- What is the limitation of legislative shortcomings? 2- What are the reasons for the legislative deficiencies in the Iraqi constitution? 3- Does the Prime Minister have the right to resign during his tenure? 4- To whom is the resignation submitted? 5- Who is the party that decides whether or not to accept the resignation? 6- What are the procedures that follow the acceptance of the resignation? By discussing these questions, we will try to reach the possibility of developing a legislative text that deals with a complete organization of the resignation of the Prime Minister, especially since the idea of ​​amending the constitution and to this day is still valid and possible, because many political, social and economic conditions in the country have changed from the time of entry into force of this constitution, which makes the idea of ​​the amendment obligatory and necessary"

scholarly journals Forecasting Macedonian Business Cycle Turning Points Using Qual Var Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 61-78
Author(s):  
Magdalena Petrovska ◽  
Aneta Krstevska ◽  
Nikola Naumovski
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
The Business Cycle

Abstract This paper aims at assessing the usefulness of leading indicators in business cycle research and forecast. Initially we test the predictive power of the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) within a static probit model as a leading indicator, commonly perceived to be able to provide a reliable summary of the current economic conditions. We further proceed analyzing how well an extended set of indicators performs in forecasting turning points of the Macedonian business cycle by employing the Qual VAR approach of Dueker (2005). In continuation, we evaluate the quality of the selected indicators in pseudo-out-of-sample context. The results show that the use of survey-based indicators as a complement to macroeconomic data work satisfactory well in capturing the business cycle developments in Macedonia.

A Reduced Form Model of Default Spreads with Markov-Switching Macroeconomic Factors

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georges Dionne ◽  
Genevieve Gauthier ◽  
Khemais Hammami ◽  
Mathieu Maurice ◽  
Jean-Guy Simonato
Keyword(s):  
Markov Switching ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Form Model ◽  
Reduced Form Model

A reduced form model of default spreads with Markov-switching macroeconomic factors

2011 ◽  
Vol 35 (8) ◽  
pp. 1984-2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georges Dionne ◽  
Geneviève Gauthier ◽  
Khemais Hammami ◽  
Mathieu Maurice ◽  
Jean-Guy Simonato
Keyword(s):  
Markov Switching ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Form Model ◽  
Reduced Form Model

scholarly journals IMPACT OF EXTERNAL SHOCKS ON BULGARIA’S GROWTH AND CYCLE

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 158-168
Author(s):  
​Ivan Todorov ◽  
Stoyan Tanchev ◽  
Petar Yurukov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Currency Board ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
External Threats ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Main Factors

The objective of this paper is to study the influence of the international economic conjuncture on Bulgaria’s economic growth and business cycle. A vector autoregression (VAR) is employed to identify the main factors, which affect the growth and cyclicality of Bulgaria, the size and the direction of their impact. The cause-and-effect links between external economic conditions, the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) and the output gap of Bulgaria have been investigated. The external opportunities and threats facing the Bulgarian economy under a currency board arrangement and a membership in the European Union have been outlined. Recommendations have been made on appropriate policies for using external opportunities and overcoming external threats. The study results indicate that the main international determinants of Bulgaria’s economic growth and business cycle are macroeconomic policies in the Euro Area.

scholarly journals Do US Government Tax Revenues and Expenditures Respond to Debt Levels and Economic Conditions Asymmetrically over the Business Cycle?

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 8
Author(s):  
Steven P Cassou ◽  
Hedieh Shadmani
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Switching Regression ◽  
Us Government ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Government ◽  
Debt Levels

This paper empirically investigates whether there are asymmetries in the responses of US government tax revenue and expenditure to debt levels and economic conditions over the business cycle. State of the art regime switching regression models, including Threshold Regression and Markov Switching, are investigated. Both sides of the government budget show asymmetries, but the asymmetries for tax revenue show greater statistical significance. The results show that both tax revenue and expenditure respond to high debt levels, with the asymmetry in this response showing that fiscal authorities take weaker action in response to debt during poor economic times. In addition, the asymmetric response to economic conditions for both sides of the budget shows that stronger countercyclical policy is taken during poor economic times.

scholarly journals What Drives Bank Peformance?

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (009) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Luca Guerrieri ◽  
◽  
James Collin Harkrader ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Business Models ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Bank Performance ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors

Focusing on some key metrics of bank performance, such as revenues and loan charge-off rates, we estimate the fraction of the observed variation in these metrics that can be attributed to changes in economic conditions. Macroeconomic factors can explain the preponderance of the fluctuations in charge-off rates. By contrast, bank-specific, idiosyncratic factors account for a sizable share of the variation in bank revenues. These results point to importance of bank-specific business models as a driver of performance.

Economic Conditions and Public Opinion on Climate Change

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salil Benegal ◽  
Lyle Scruggs
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Environmental Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Policy Reform ◽  
Public Attitudes ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Risk ◽  
The Impact

How do economic conditions affect public opinion about climate change? Since the early days of the modern environmental movement, people have debated three main perspectives on how economic conditions impact environmental attitudes. The post-materialism perspective suggests that social and individual affluence leads to increasing concern and demands for action on climate change through long-run cultural change. A second view suggests that attitudes about climate change are shaped largely independently of economic conditions and reflect the emergence of a new environmental paradigm. A third view, associated with ecological modernization theory, suggests that attitudes about climate change are shaped in important ways by short-term economic factors, such as economic self-interest, and are likely to vary among citizens over time. While all of these perspectives have merit, we emphasize the impact of macroeconomic risk and business cycle fluctuations in shaping public attitudes toward climate change and more general aspects of environmental policy. Rising unemployment rates, for example, tend to be associated with declines in concern about environmental problems. This is a trend that is repeated across more than four decades and multiple recessions and recoveries dating back to the 1970s. Although it is obviously a more recently recognized environmental problem, public attitudes about climate change are also affected considerably by short-run economic conditions. This fact can influence the possibilities for policy reform. Through a process of motivated reasoning, in which immediate concerns and preferences to address economic risk lead individuals to adjust other attitudes about the environment, public concerns about climate change have ebbed and flowed with the business cycle. Other economic factors—such as societal affluence, personal employment status, or income—have more limited effects on attitudes about climate change, at least in most developed countries. The impact of economic risk on public attitudes about climate change has important implications for policy reform in democratic societies, because public support matters. While partisanship and ideology are frequently cited as explanations for fluctuating public opinion about climate change, macroeconomic risk offers a complementary explanation, which suggests that the framing and timing of environmental policy initiatives is as important as ideological acceptability. Positioning environmental actions or initiatives in better economic conditions, emphasizing immediate economic benefits, and countering unwarranted beliefs about personal costs, especially during challenging economic circumstances, should improve the prospects for efforts to address climate change.

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