scholarly journals Being Born under Adverse Economic Conditions Leads to a Higher Cardiovascular Mortality Rate Later in Life: Evidence Based on Individuals Born at Different Stages of the Business Cycle

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerard J. van den Berg ◽  
Gabriele Doblhammer-Reiter ◽  
Kaare Christensen
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Cardiovascular Mortality ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
The Business Cycle

EXPRESS: Households under Economic Change: How Micro- and Macroeconomic Conditions Shape Grocery Shopping Behavior

2021 ◽  
pp. 002224292110368
Author(s):  
Thomas P. Scholdra ◽  
Julian R. K. Wichmann ◽  
Maik Eisenbeiss ◽  
Werner J. Reinartz
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Shopping Behavior ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Grocery Shopping ◽  
National Brands ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Spending Behavior ◽  
Shopping Basket ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Structural Shifts

Economic conditions may significantly affect households' shopping behavior and, by extension, retailers' and manufacturers' firm performance. By explicitly distinguishing between two basic types of economic conditions—micro conditions in terms of households' personal income and macro conditions in terms of the business cycle—this study analyzes how households adjust their grocery shopping behavior. The authors observe more than 5,000 households over eight years and analyze shopping outcomes in terms of what, where, and how much they shop and spend. Results show that micro and macro conditions substantially influence shopping outcomes, but in very different ways. Microeconomic changes lead households to adjust primarily their overall purchase volume—that is, after losing income, households buy fewer products and spend less in total. In contrast, macroeconomic changes cause pronounced structural shifts in households' shopping basket allocation and spending behavior. Specifically, during contractions, households shift purchases toward private labels while also buying and consequently spending more than during expansions. During expansions, however, households increasingly purchase national brands but keep their total spending constant. The authors discuss psychological and sociological mechanisms that can explain the differential effects of micro and macro conditions on shopping behavior and develop important diagnostic and normative implications for retailers and manufacturers.

scholarly journals Forecasting Macedonian Business Cycle Turning Points Using Qual Var Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 61-78
Author(s):  
Magdalena Petrovska ◽  
Aneta Krstevska ◽  
Nikola Naumovski
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
The Business Cycle

Abstract This paper aims at assessing the usefulness of leading indicators in business cycle research and forecast. Initially we test the predictive power of the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) within a static probit model as a leading indicator, commonly perceived to be able to provide a reliable summary of the current economic conditions. We further proceed analyzing how well an extended set of indicators performs in forecasting turning points of the Macedonian business cycle by employing the Qual VAR approach of Dueker (2005). In continuation, we evaluate the quality of the selected indicators in pseudo-out-of-sample context. The results show that the use of survey-based indicators as a complement to macroeconomic data work satisfactory well in capturing the business cycle developments in Macedonia.

scholarly journals Do US Government Tax Revenues and Expenditures Respond to Debt Levels and Economic Conditions Asymmetrically over the Business Cycle?

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 8
Author(s):  
Steven P Cassou ◽  
Hedieh Shadmani
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Switching Regression ◽  
Us Government ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Government ◽  
Debt Levels

This paper empirically investigates whether there are asymmetries in the responses of US government tax revenue and expenditure to debt levels and economic conditions over the business cycle. State of the art regime switching regression models, including Threshold Regression and Markov Switching, are investigated. Both sides of the government budget show asymmetries, but the asymmetries for tax revenue show greater statistical significance. The results show that both tax revenue and expenditure respond to high debt levels, with the asymmetry in this response showing that fiscal authorities take weaker action in response to debt during poor economic times. In addition, the asymmetric response to economic conditions for both sides of the budget shows that stronger countercyclical policy is taken during poor economic times.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 246-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Travis J Berge ◽  
Óscar Jordá
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Business Cycle Dating

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research provides a historical chronology of business cycle turning points. We investigate three central aspects of this chronology. How skillful is the Dating Committee when classifying economic activity into expansions and recessions? Which indices of economic conditions best capture the current but unobservable state of the business cycle? And which indicators best predict future turning points, and at what horizons? We answer each of these questions in detail using methods specifically designed to assess classification ability. In the process, we clarify several important features of the business cycle. (JEL C82, E32)

The Overall Effect of the Business Cycle on Crime

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 436-446 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shawn Bushway ◽  
Matthew Phillips ◽  
Philip J. Cook
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Motor Vehicles ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Statistical Association ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Using Data

Abstract This paper analyses the 13 business cycles since 1933 to provide evidence on the old question of whether recessions cause crime. Using data from the United States, we find that recessions are consistently associated with an uptick in burglary and robbery, and a reduction in theft of motor vehicles. There is no statistical association with homicide. These patterns are suggestive of the relative importance of the various channels by which economic conditions influence crime.

Impacts of Several Factors in Tourism Industry

2016 ◽  
pp. 239-246
Author(s):  
P. Premkanna
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Corporate Performance ◽  
Hotel Industry ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Climate ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
The Business Cycle

Generally all firms can operate only in the environment of the economy. The changes in corporate performance are closely related to expansion and contraction of the business cycle. The economic climate might have a greater impact on profits than the firm's performance within its industry. The corporate performance in the hotel industry may also rely on economic conditions. Thus, the significance of a firm is closely tied to the state of the economy (or economic climate).

Why is the Default Rate So Low? How Economic Conditions and Public Policies Have Shaped Mortgage and Auto Delinquencies During the COVID-19 Pandemic

FEDS Notes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (2854) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Dettling ◽  
◽  
Lauren Lambie-Hanson ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Public Policies ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Family Finances ◽  
Default Rate ◽  
Debt Repayment ◽  
The Business Cycle

Delinquencies and defaults on household debt typically closely follow the business cycle. As economic conditions deteriorate, falling employment and incomes put a strain on family finances, leading to a rise in missed debt payments and defaults. Yet, against the backdrop of a historic rise in unemployment associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, delinquencies have fallen. This FEDS Note documents trends in delinquency on mortgages and auto loans during the COVID-19 pandemic, and unpacks how changes in economic conditions and public policies have been associated with borrowers’ debt repayment behavior.

The Origins of Anti-Immigrant Sentiments: Evidence from the Heartland in the Age of Mass Migration

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary Richardson
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Cultural Factors ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Immigrant Status ◽  
Mass Migration ◽  
Eugenics Movement ◽  
The Business Cycle

AbstractThe Kansas Bureau of Labor and Industry surveyed attitudes towards immigration during the 1890s. The surveys reveal that individuals opposed immigration for cultural and economic reasons. Key correlates were the position in the labor market, the business cycle, and immigrant status. The magnitudes of the effects indicate that economic factors explain twice the variation in opinions across individuals than cultural factors explain. In addition, changes in economic conditions from 1880 to 1920 explain a substantial share of the rise in anti-immigrant sentiments at the end of the nineteenth and during the early twentieth centuries, but other factors, such as the rise of the eugenics movement, must have had at least as large a role.

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