Presidential Coattails and Midterm Losses in State Legislative Elections

1986 ◽  
Vol 80 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
James E. Campbell
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
The State ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Aggregate State ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
State Legislative Elections ◽  
State Legislative ◽  
The U.S

The president's party consistently loses partisan control of state legislatures in midterm elections, a pattern similar to the loss of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in midterms. This study examines presidential coattails as a possible explanation of these losses. Aggregate state legislative election outcomes between 1944 and 1984 in 41 states are examined. The analysis indicates that the president's party gains seats in presidential elections in proportion to the presidential vote in a state, and subsequently loses seats in midterm elections also in proportion to the prior presidential vote in the state. The presidential coattail and the midterm repercussion effects are evident even when gubernatorial coattail effects are introduced, but are fairly modest in states lacking competitive parties.

Forecasting the 2008 U.S. House, Senate and Presidential Elections at the District and State Level

2008 ◽  
Vol 41 (04) ◽  
pp. 723-728 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl Klarner
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
State Level ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
The State ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
White House ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
The U.S

This paper applies the forecasting models of Klarner and Buchanan (2006a) for the U.S. Senate and Klarner and Buchanan (2006b) for the U.S. House of Representatives to the upcoming 2008 elections. Forecasts are also conducted for the 2008 presidential race at the state level. The forecasts presented in this article, made July 28, 2008 (99 days before the election), predicted an 11-seat gain for the Democrats in the House of Representatives, a three-seat gain for the Democrats in the Senate, and that Barack Obama would obtain 53.0% of the popular vote and 346 electoral votes. Furthermore, Obama was forecast to have an 83.6% chance of winning the White House and an 85.9% chance of winning the popular vote.

Forecasting the 2010 State Legislative Elections

2010 ◽  
Vol 43 (04) ◽  
pp. 643-648 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl Klarner
Keyword(s):  
State Legislatures ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Election Forecasting ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
State Legislative Elections ◽  
State Legislative

This article offers forecasts made on July 22, 2010, for the 2010 state legislative elections. Most work in the election forecasting field has been done on presidential and U.S. House elections. Less has been done for U.S. Senate elections, and almost none for gubernatorial or state legislative elections. This year will see much attention directed at the 43 state legislatures holding elections, because many will have the responsibility for drawing new district lines based on the 2010 census. Furthermore, of those chambers with elections scheduled in 2010, seven currently contain one party with less than a 5% margin of control. With so much at stake, these will clearly be contests to watch.

Electoral Competition in the American States

1993 ◽  
Vol 87 (4) ◽  
pp. 955-962 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas M. Holbrook ◽  
Emily Van Dunk
Keyword(s):  
Electoral Competition ◽  
State Politics ◽  
The State ◽  
District Level ◽  
Validity And Reliability ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Level Indicator ◽  
American States ◽  
State Legislative Elections ◽  
State Legislative

Electoral competition is a concept that has played a central role in much of the state politics literature. One commonly used indicator of competition in the states is the Ranney index. We offer an alternative indicator of competition, one based on district-level outcomes of state legislative elections. After evaluating both indicators in terms of validity and reliability, the analysis suggests that the district-level indicator is both empirically and intuitively superior as a measure of electoral competition. The implications of this finding are discussed.

The State Legislative Elections of 2018: Symposium Introduction

2020 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 427-428
Author(s):  
Carl E. Klarner
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
State Legislative Elections ◽  
State Legislative

This symposium consists of six articles that examine the 2018 state legislative elections. The first article by Adam S. Myers sets the stage by highlighting the unprecedented level of contestation in state legislative elections, especially by Democratic candidates.

Effects of Multimember Districts on Black Representation in State Legislatures

1986 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 65-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernard Grofman ◽  
Michael Migalski ◽  
Nicholas Noviello
Keyword(s):  
North Carolina ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
Black Population ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Black Representation ◽  
Black Populations ◽  
Almost All ◽  
State Legislative Elections ◽  
State Legislative

We look at the most general feature of multimember districts (MMDs) as compared to single-member districting (SMD) plans: the higher likelihood of submergence of minority voting strength. We focus on data on black legislative representation between 1977 and 1982 in the 11 states with more than 15% black populations, and compare states which use MMDs with those that use SMDs. We also examine changes in black representation in states which shifted from MMDs to SMDs. In addition, for MMD state legislative elections in eight North Carolina counties between 1978 and 1982, we examine in detail the nature of minority submergence including the lack of geographic representativity of the persons elected from MMDs. The counties we examine contain four of North Carolina's largest cities and a substantial portion of North Carolina's black population. Unlike almost all of the previously published literature on racial representation in MMDs, our study deals with state legislative races and not local elections.

National Forces in State Legislative Elections

2016 ◽  
Vol 667 (1) ◽  
pp. 207-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Rogers
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
State Legislature ◽  
State Legislators ◽  
Presidential Approval ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
White House ◽  
State Legislative Elections ◽  
The Impact ◽  
State Legislative

The race for the White House is at the top of the ticket, but voters will also choose more than 5,000 state legislators in November 2016. While voters elect and hold the president responsible for one job and state legislators for another, the outcomes of their elections are remarkably related. In analyses of elite and voter behavior in state legislative elections, I show that legislators affiliated with the president’s party—especially during unpopular presidencies—are the most likely to be challenged, and compared with individual assessments of the state legislature, changes in presidential approval have at least three times the impact on voters’ decision-making in state legislative elections. Thus, while state legislatures wield considerable policymaking power, legislators’ electoral fates appear to be largely out of their control.

Religious Adherence, Women-Friendliness, and Representation in American State Legislatures

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-244 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas L. Pyeatt ◽  
Alixandra B. Yanus
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Contextual Factors ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
Women Candidates ◽  
National Studies ◽  
State Legislative ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Cross National ◽  
Evangelical Protestant

AbstractNational and cross-national studies demonstrate that the probability of women candidates' emergence and success is lower in more religious areas. One recent study of the U.S. House of Representatives even suggests that the effect of religiosity may be so powerful as to render insignificant other contextual factors, including a district's baseline women-friendliness. We argue that this finding is an institutional artifact; in less competitive contests with more internally similar constituencies, both religion and other contextual factors should affect women candidates' emergence and victory. We test this proposition using state legislative data and find that while women are less likely to run and win in more religious areas, district women-friendliness has an independent, positive effect on women's candidacies. These effects are particularly noteworthy in districts with large evangelical Protestant populations and affect Republican and Democratic women similarly.

scholarly journals Constituency Service and Incumbency Advantage

1991 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary King
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
State Legislators ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Incumbency Advantage ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Electoral Defeat ◽  
State Legislative Elections ◽  
State Legislative

Numerous scholars have documented a dramatic increase in incumbency advantage in US congressional elections and also state legislative elections over the past four decades. For example, Gelman and King show that incumbents in the House of Representatives now receive about twelve extra percentage points solely as a result of holding congressional office during the campaign; the comparable figure for most of the first half of this century was only 2 per cent. This advantage of incumbency has made members of the US House and many state legislators nearly invulnerable to electoral defeat.

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