Effects of Multimember Districts on Black Representation in State Legislatures

1986 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 65-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernard Grofman ◽  
Michael Migalski ◽  
Nicholas Noviello
Keyword(s):  
North Carolina ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
Black Population ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Black Representation ◽  
Black Populations ◽  
Almost All ◽  
State Legislative Elections ◽  
State Legislative

We look at the most general feature of multimember districts (MMDs) as compared to single-member districting (SMD) plans: the higher likelihood of submergence of minority voting strength. We focus on data on black legislative representation between 1977 and 1982 in the 11 states with more than 15% black populations, and compare states which use MMDs with those that use SMDs. We also examine changes in black representation in states which shifted from MMDs to SMDs. In addition, for MMD state legislative elections in eight North Carolina counties between 1978 and 1982, we examine in detail the nature of minority submergence including the lack of geographic representativity of the persons elected from MMDs. The counties we examine contain four of North Carolina's largest cities and a substantial portion of North Carolina's black population. Unlike almost all of the previously published literature on racial representation in MMDs, our study deals with state legislative races and not local elections.

Forecasting the 2010 State Legislative Elections

2010 ◽  
Vol 43 (04) ◽  
pp. 643-648 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl Klarner
Keyword(s):  
State Legislatures ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Election Forecasting ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
State Legislative Elections ◽  
State Legislative

This article offers forecasts made on July 22, 2010, for the 2010 state legislative elections. Most work in the election forecasting field has been done on presidential and U.S. House elections. Less has been done for U.S. Senate elections, and almost none for gubernatorial or state legislative elections. This year will see much attention directed at the 43 state legislatures holding elections, because many will have the responsibility for drawing new district lines based on the 2010 census. Furthermore, of those chambers with elections scheduled in 2010, seven currently contain one party with less than a 5% margin of control. With so much at stake, these will clearly be contests to watch.

Revisiting Majority-Minority Districts and Black Representation

2017 ◽  
Vol 71 (2) ◽  
pp. 408-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
William D. Hicks ◽  
Carl E. Klarner ◽  
Seth C. McKee ◽  
Daniel A. Smith
Keyword(s):  
African American ◽  
Black Population ◽  
State Legislators ◽  
Deep South ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Complete Evaluation ◽  
Black Representation ◽  
Original Dataset ◽  
State Legislative Elections ◽  
Black Legislators

What is the minimum black population necessary to elect African-American state lawmakers? We offer the most comprehensive examination of the election of black state legislators in the post- Thornburg v. Gingles (1986) era. We begin by charting changes in the partisan affiliation of state legislators and the percentage of black legislators from 1971 to 2016. This descriptive assessment is undertaken according to important regional (Non-South and South) and subregional (Rim South and Deep South) contexts in American politics. We then perform multivariate analyses of the likelihood of electing black legislators across three periods following the marked increase in the creation of majority-minority districts (1993–1995, 2003–2005, 2013–2015). Because of sectional variation in the partisan strength of the major parties, the probability of achieving black representation is significantly different depending upon whether a contest occurs in the Non-South, Rim South, or Deep South, with the latter constituting of the highest threshold of black population necessary to elect an African-American. By merging an original dataset on state legislative elections with the most complete evaluation of the factors shaping the election of black lawmakers, our findings shed new light on minority representation and how sectional differences greatly affect the electoral success of African-Americans.

Presidential Coattails and Midterm Losses in State Legislative Elections

1986 ◽  
Vol 80 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
James E. Campbell
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
The State ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Aggregate State ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
State Legislative Elections ◽  
State Legislative ◽  
The U.S

The president's party consistently loses partisan control of state legislatures in midterm elections, a pattern similar to the loss of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in midterms. This study examines presidential coattails as a possible explanation of these losses. Aggregate state legislative election outcomes between 1944 and 1984 in 41 states are examined. The analysis indicates that the president's party gains seats in presidential elections in proportion to the presidential vote in a state, and subsequently loses seats in midterm elections also in proportion to the prior presidential vote in the state. The presidential coattail and the midterm repercussion effects are evident even when gubernatorial coattail effects are introduced, but are fairly modest in states lacking competitive parties.

National Forces in State Legislative Elections

2016 ◽  
Vol 667 (1) ◽  
pp. 207-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Rogers
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
State Legislature ◽  
State Legislators ◽  
Presidential Approval ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
White House ◽  
State Legislative Elections ◽  
The Impact ◽  
State Legislative

The race for the White House is at the top of the ticket, but voters will also choose more than 5,000 state legislators in November 2016. While voters elect and hold the president responsible for one job and state legislators for another, the outcomes of their elections are remarkably related. In analyses of elite and voter behavior in state legislative elections, I show that legislators affiliated with the president’s party—especially during unpopular presidencies—are the most likely to be challenged, and compared with individual assessments of the state legislature, changes in presidential approval have at least three times the impact on voters’ decision-making in state legislative elections. Thus, while state legislatures wield considerable policymaking power, legislators’ electoral fates appear to be largely out of their control.

Gaining Voice

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher J. Clark
Keyword(s):  
State Government ◽  
Black People ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
Black Population ◽  
State Legislature ◽  
The State ◽  
Black Representation ◽  
Black Public Opinion ◽  
The One ◽  
State Legislative

This book adopts a multifaceted approach to study of black state legislators across the country. Using the descriptive representation framework, multiple facets of black representation are studied. Black seat share is the primary facet considered, and it is measured as the proportion of seats held by blacks in the state legislature. The black representation ratio measures the black seat share relative to the black population share. Parity exists when blacks are represented in the state legislature at a rate that matches their population share. Legislative black caucuses are also studied in this work, representing the institutionalization of the black presence in state legislatures. The first half of the book shows that while black people are critical for explaining black representation in state legislatures, that institutional and non-racial demographic factors also account for the black seat share, black representation ratio, and emergence of state legislative black caucuses. A “demographics is destiny” explanation insufficiently accounts for blacks gaining voice in state legislatures. The second half the book considers the consequences of black representation in state government. On the one hand, a greater black presence increases education spending, black political involvement, and liberalizes black public opinion. On the other hand, an increased black presence is linked with less liberal welfare policy, in particular in places where Democrats hold the majority of state legislative seats. Thus, an increased black presence in the legislature can be seen as a double-edged sword.

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