Soviet Interests in Latin America: New Opportunities and Old Constraints

1984 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Raymond Duncan

The October 1983 crisis in Grenada left little doubt that the Soviet and Cuban presence had been expanding in the Caribbean basin. But the October crisis did not answer questions regarding the extent of their actual influence there, nor the direction it might take in the future, nor even what the most appropriate U.S. policy responses should be to that influence elsewhere in the region. Therefore, in the wake of the U.S. occupation of Grenada and the evidence it uncovered about the degree of Soviet and Cuban activity there, it is useful to examine the kind of situations that have encouraged the Soviets to expand their presence and/or influence in Latin America. At the same time, it equally is useful to examine the limitations or constraints on such an expanded presence or influence.Clearly, Soviet policy in Latin America has been the product of two conflicting forces or tendencies.

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. i1-i6
Author(s):  
Y Xiang ◽  
K Chan ◽  
I Rudan

Abstract Background and Objectives Rapid increase in life expectancy has resulted in an increase in the global burden of dementia that is expected to become a leading cause of morbidity in the future. Low- and middle-income countries are expected to bear an increasing majority of the burden, but lack data for accurate burden estimates that are key for informing policy and planning. Bayesian methods have recently gained recognition over traditional frequentist approaches for modelling disease burden for their superiority in dealing with severely limited data. This study provides updated estimates of dementia prevalence in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) for the years 2015, 2020 and 2030. Given the paucity of data, estimates were developed using a Bayesian methodology and confirmed by the traditional frequentist approach, with the aim of providing methodological insights for future disease burden estimates. Methods A comprehensive systematic literature search was conducted to identify all relevant primary studies published between the years 2010–2018. The quality of the included studies was critically assessed. A random-effects model (REM) and a Bayesian normal-normal hierarchical model (NNHM) were used to obtain the pooled prevalence estimate of dementia for people aged 60 and above. The latter model was also developed to estimate age-specific dementia prevalence. Using UN population estimates, total and age-specific projections of the burden of dementia were calculated. Results The prevalence of dementia in LAC was found to be 14% (10–21%) in those above age 60 based on REM, and 8% (5–11.5%) based on NNHM. The prevalence increased from 2% (1–4%) in people aged 60–69 to 29% (20–37%) in people above the age of 80. The number of people living with dementia in LAC in 2015 was estimated at 5.68 million, with future projections of 6.86 million in 2020 and 9.94 million in 2030. Conclusions The findings of this review found that burden of dementia in LAC is substantial and continues to rapidly grow. The projected rise in dementia cases in the future should prompt urgent governmental response to address this growing public health issue. We were also able to demonstrate that given the overall paucity of data, a Bayesian approach was superior for estimating disease prevalence and burden.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongbin Yu ◽  
Qian Tan ◽  
Lillian Zhou ◽  
Yaping Zhou ◽  
Huisheng Bian ◽  
...  

Abstract. This study characterizes a massive African dust intrusion into the Caribbean Basin and southern U.S. in June 2020, which is nicknamed the Godzilla dust plume, using a comprehensive set of satellite and ground-based observations (including MODIS, CALIOP, SEVIRI, AERONET, and EPA Air Quality network) and the NASA GEOS global aerosol transport model. The MODIS data record registered this massive dust intrusion event as the most intense episode over the past two decades. During this event, the aerosol optical depth observed by AERONET and MODIS peaked at 3.5 off the coast of West Africa and 1.8 in the Caribbean Basin. CALIOP observations show that the top of dust plume reached altitudes of 6–8 km in West Africa and descended to about 4 km altitude over the Caribbean Basin and 2 km over the U.S. Gulf coast. The dust plume degraded the air quality in Puerto Rico to the hazardous level, with maximum daily PM10 concentration of 453 μg m−3 recorded on June 23. The dust intrusion into the U.S. raised the PM2.5 concentration on June 27 to a level exceeding the EPA air quality standard in about 40 % of the stations in the southern U.S. Satellite observations reveal that dust emissions from convection-generated haboobs and other sources in West Africa were large albeit not extreme on a daily basis. However, the anomalous strength and northern shift of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) together with the Azores low formed a closed circulation pattern that allowed for accumulation of the dust near the African coast for about four days. When the NASH was weakened and wandered back to south, the dust outflow region was dominated by a strong African Easterly Jet that rapidly transported the accumulated dust from the coastal region toward the Caribbean Basin, resulting in the record-breaking African dust intrusion. In comparison to satellite observations, the GEOS model well reproduced the MODIS observed tracks of the meandering dust plume as it was carried by the wind systems. However, the model substantially underestimated dust emissions from haboobs and did not lift up enough dust to the middle troposphere for ensuing long-range transport. Consequently, the model largely missed the satellite-observed elevated dust plume along the cross-ocean track and underestimated the dust intrusion into the Caribbean Basin by a factor of more than 4. Modeling improvements need to focus on developing more realistic representations of moist convection, haboobs, and the vertical transport of dust.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xavier Martin ◽  
Danielle Sobol ◽  
Barbara Magnoni ◽  
Elizabeth Burgess
Keyword(s):  

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