Estimating the Regional Demand for Softwood Lumber in the United States

1990 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noel D. Uri ◽  
Roy Boyd
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Softwood Lumber ◽  
Regional Demand

International trade in forest products: lumber trade disputes, models and examples

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
The United States ◽  
Wood Products ◽  
Forest Sector ◽  
Softwood Lumber ◽  
Background Theory ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Because of the long-standing Canada-United States lumber trade dispute and the current pressure on the world's forests as a renewable energy source, much attention has been directed toward the modelling of international trade in wood products. Two types of trade models are described in this book: one is rooted in economic theory and mathematical programming, and the other consists of two econometric/statistical models--a gravity model rooted in theory and an approach known as GVAR that relies on time series analyses. The purpose of the book is to provide the background theory behind models and enable readers to easily construct their own models to analyze policy questions, whether in forestry or another sector. Examples in the book illustrate how models can be used to say something about a variety of issues, including identification of the gains and losses to various players in the North American softwood lumber business, and the potential for redirecting sales of lumber to countries outside the United States. The discussion is expanded to include other products besides lumber, and used to examine, for example, the effects of log export restrictions by one naton on all other forestry jurisdictions, the impacts of climate policies as they relate to the global forest sector, and the impact of oil prices on forest product markets throughout the world.

scholarly journals How Effective Is the United States-Canada Softwood Lumber Agreement 2006? An Econometric Study

2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (6) ◽  
pp. 1041-1049 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajan Parajuli ◽  
Sun Joseph Chang ◽  
R. Carter Hill
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Softwood Lumber ◽  
Econometric Study

Trade issues mount in Canada-US bilateral relations

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Softwood Lumber ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
Damaging Effects

Significance The potato ban is one of several issues in which, when seen from Ottawa, US policy looks less neighbourly that many in the United States might assume. Although Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has made much of his relationship with President Joe Biden, Canadians are increasingly aware of these irritants in bilateral relations. Impacts An escalation in retaliatory tariffs is possible over the next few years, with damaging effects for both economies. Ottawa is likely to seek a new agreement on softwood lumber duties before the end of the Biden administration. The chance of a rupture in the section of a Canadian pipeline that runs through Michigan may rise if legal disputes delay action. Washington has made little effort to consult with Ottawa over policy towards China and this is unlikely to change.

Welfare impacts of the 1996 United States - Canada Softwood Lumber (trade) Agreement

2001 ◽  
Vol 31 (11) ◽  
pp. 1958-1967 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daowei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Price Impact ◽  
Policy Debate ◽  
Quota System ◽  
Welfare Impacts ◽  
Softwood Lumber ◽  
The U.S

This paper investigates welfare impacts of the 1996 United States – Canada Softwood Lumber (trade) Agreement (SLA), which set up a tariff-regulated quota system to restrict softwood lumber export from Canada to the United States. An aggregate price model is used to estimate the price impact of the SLA, and the implied quantity and welfare effects are examined. The results show that while the anticipated change in lumber price is about $59 in 1997 U.S. dollars or 16%, on average, for the first 4 years under the SLA, the gains to U.S. producers of softwood lumber are large and the losses to U.S. consumers are much larger. In addition, Canadian producers have benefitted from the SLA in the U.S. market, and the Canadian government has collected a small amount of additional export fees. As the overall efficiency costs of the SLA are modest, the SLA can be seen as an effective means of welfare transfer from U.S. consumers to the U.S. and Canadian producers. These results should provide a framework for ongoing trade policy debate.

Projecting Housing Starts and Softwood Lumber Consumption in the United States

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey P. Prestemon ◽  
David N. Wear ◽  
Karen L. Abt ◽  
Robert C. Abt
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Softwood Lumber ◽  
Housing Starts

The competitiveness of Canadian softwood lumber: a disaggregated trade-flow analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (12) ◽  
pp. 1494-1506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei-Yew Chang ◽  
Chris Gaston
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Mountain Pine Beetle ◽  
Flow Analysis ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
The United States ◽  
Lower Grade ◽  
Restrictive Assumption ◽  
Softwood Lumber ◽  
Dimension Lumber

A recursive dynamic spatial equilibrium model is used to examine the global competitiveness of Canadian softwood lumber. To address the restrictive assumption of softwood lumber homogeneity, this study disaggregates softwood lumber into two product groups: (i) higher grade lumber that includes appearance, select structural-grade lumber, and Japanese J-grade lumber; and (ii) lower grade lumber that includes the United States dimension lumber that is commonly used in construction and utility- and economy-grade lumber. Factors that may affect global softwood lumber markets are simulated in the model to project global softwood lumber trade flows from 2012 to 2021. The results indicate that the reduced lumber supply in western Canada caused by the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) infestation combined with demand increases in several regions of the world will contribute to a global increase in softwood lumber prices. Our results suggest that the global price increase will be greater for lower grade softwood lumber than for higher grade lumber. The United States and China will continue to be the top two markets for lower grade Canadian softwood lumber. Although Canadian exports of lower grade softwood lumber to the United States are expected to increase marginally over time in response to the recovery of American housing starts, softwood lumber exports to China are expected to drop significantly, and it is forecasted that exports from the Russian Federation will fill that void. These findings provide strong market signals for both forest managers and the forest-products industry to assess supply chain profitability and adjust production planning accordingly.

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