A Theoretical and Empirical Comparison of Free Agent and Arbitration-Eligible Salaries Negotiated in Major League Baseball

2000 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phillip A. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Major League Baseball ◽  
Empirical Comparison ◽  
Free Agent ◽  
Major League

Beyond Moneyball

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (7) ◽  
pp. 1046-1061
Author(s):  
Joshua M. Congdon-Hohman ◽  
Jonathan A. Lanning
Keyword(s):  
Major League Baseball ◽  
Free Agency ◽  
Free Agent ◽  
Financial Return ◽  
Compensation Structure ◽  
Specific Output ◽  
Major League ◽  
Time Periods

This study examines the changes in player compensation in Major League Baseball during the last three decades. Specifically, we examine the extent to which recently documented changes in players’ compensation structure based on certain types of productivity fits in with the longer term trends in compensation and identify the value of specific output activities in different time periods. We examine free-agent contracts in 3-year periods across three decades and find significant changes to how players’ past performances are rewarded in free agency beyond the change in those to on-base percentage seen in the mid-2000s. We find evidence that the compensation strategies of baseball teams increased the rewards to “power” statistics beyond home runs in the 1990s from a model that focused on successfully reaching base with a batted ball without a significant regard for the number of bases reached. Similarly, we confirm and expand upon the increased financial return to bases on balls in the late 2000s as found in previous research.

scholarly journals The Prediction of Batting Averages in Major League Baseball

Stats ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 84-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah R. Bailey ◽  
Jason Loeppky ◽  
Tim B. Swartz
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Major League Baseball ◽  
Difficult Problem ◽  
Standard Errors ◽  
Simple Linear Regression ◽  
Empirical Comparison ◽  
Batting Average ◽  
Major League ◽  
Test Algorithm

The prediction of yearly batting averages in Major League Baseball is a notoriously difficult problem where standard errors using the well-known PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) system are roughly 20 points. This paper considers the use of ball-by-ball data provided by the Statcast system in an attempt to predict batting averages. The publicly available Statcast data and resultant predictions supplement proprietary PECOTA forecasts. With detailed Statcast data, we attempt to account for a luck component involving batting averages. It is anticipated that the luck component will not be repeated in future seasons. The two predictions (Statcast and PECOTA) are combined via simple linear regression to provide improved forecasts of batting average.

Performance-Undermining Effects of Baseball Free Agent Contracts

2001 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ted S. Sturman ◽  
Ryan Thibodeau
Keyword(s):  
Intrinsic Motivation ◽  
Major League Baseball ◽  
Free Agent ◽  
Extrinsic Rewards ◽  
Major League ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Overjustification Effect

Research on the effects of extrinsic rewards on subsequent levels of intrinsic motivation and performance has produced conflicting results. In the present study, player statistics were obtained on 33 major league baseball free agents for two seasons prior to, and two seasons after, the signing of the contract. Results suggest that the new contract, particularly its substantial pay raise, caused a decrease in immediate postcontract performance. In addition, there was some evidence that performance output recovered to its precontract level in the second season postcontract. Findings are discussed with respect to previous work on intrinsic to extrinsic motivational shifts and the overjustification effect.

Free-Agent Performance in Major League Baseball: Do Teams Get What They Expect?

1999 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 181-196 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Ahlstrom ◽  
Steven Si ◽  
James Kennelly
Keyword(s):  
Major League Baseball ◽  
Equity Theory ◽  
Expectancy Theory ◽  
Free Agency ◽  
Free Agent ◽  
Major League ◽  
Performance Statistics

Under certain conditions, equity and expectancy theories yield opposite predictions. This study examines one such situation. Performance statistics from a sample of 172 Major League Baseball free agents were collected for the 2 years before and 1 year after each player's free agency filing. Equity theory suggests that performance decrements will occur when players perceive they are undercompensated in their free-agent year. In contrast, expectancy theory suggests that players' performance will be superior when they are up for new contracts. During the 1st year of a free-agent player's new contract, equity theory predicts that his performance will be superior, whereas expectancy theory predicts that it will be lower. Free agents' performance tended to decline after they signed contracts with new teams. This study suggests that if Major League Baseball teams pay free agents based on free-agent-year performance, they might not be satisfied with the results.

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