A Note on Budget Deficits and Ex Ante Real Long Term Interest Rates in the United States

1990 ◽  
Vol 56 (3) ◽  
pp. 797 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard J. Cebula
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Ex Ante

Investing for Growth and Security

2019 ◽  
pp. 193-206
Author(s):  
William G. Gale
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
The United States ◽  
Federal Spending ◽  
President Obama ◽  
Transit Systems ◽  
Historical Levels

Besides its investment in people, the federal government makes critical investments in infrastructure and research and development. Because federal spending in these areas has fallen significantly in recent years and interest rates are low relative to historical levels, this chapter proposes sizable increases for both categories. The increases in infrastructure spending will provide the resources needed to restore and update aging roads, bridges, and public transit systems, while the increases in research and development will help the United States to explore cutting-edge technologies. Policymakers should also fund the military’s long-term plans through 2032, as outlined by President Obama, and let spending grow modestly afterward. That would allow for a continuing presence overseas. If a new war broke out, policymakers presumably would provide the additional temporary funds to ensure that America achieved its mission and emerged victorious.

scholarly journals Long-Term Timber Contracts in the Southeastern United States: Updating the Primer Valuation Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (6) ◽  
pp. 653-665
Author(s):  
Hector I Restrepo ◽  
Bin Mei ◽  
Bronson P Bullock
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
The United States ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Conditional Volatility ◽  
Material Supply

Abstract Timberland ownership has drastically changed in the United States since the 1980s, driven by the divestitures of vertically integrated forest products companies. Having sold their timberland, forest products companies have exposed themselves more to the risk of raw material supply. To hedge against this risk, forest products companies usually use long-term timber contracts (LTTC). The objective of this article is to update the valuation framework for LTTCs proposed by Shaffer (1984) by including alternative option price models and refining the estimates of some key economic variables. In particular, conditional volatility from the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model and quasi-conditional volatility from rolling estimation windows, in addition to simple standard deviation, are used for the volatility estimates in the option pricing models. Contrary to the previous result by Shaffer (1984), our analysis suggests that LTTCs that were once profitable for forest products companies in the 1980s are no longer so under current market conditions. This is primarily because both timber price volatility and the risk-free interest rates have declined significantly. Thus, to be better off, forest products companies need to either lower the administration and management costs of those LTTCs or rely more on the open market for timber procurement. Study Implications: Forest products companies have traditionally relied on long-term timber contracts (LTTC) negotiated with forest landowners to mitigate the risk of raw material supply. The value of these LTTCs highly depends on the economic context. This research provides some insights into the valuation of LTTCs in the southeastern United States. Forest products companies can use this updated framework to aid their decisionmaking in timber procurement.

MONETARY POLICY AND GOVERNMENT DEBT MANAGEMENT DURING THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC

2021 ◽  
Vol 255 ◽  
pp. 79-84
Author(s):  
William A. Allen
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
The United Kingdom

This paper describes how the large budget deficits of 2020 in the United States and the United Kingdom were financed, how central banks are in practice managed not just short-term interest rates but also yields on government bonds, and how their ability to resist a post-coronavirus surge in inflation has been compromised.

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT MACROECONOMIC POLICY ON INDONESIA'S FISHERIES EXPORT TO THE UNITED STATES IN 1989-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 267
Author(s):  
Akhmad Jayadi ◽  
Tanto Firmansyah
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

Indonesia is a maritime country that has huge potential in fisheries sector. The average of indonesian fisheries production and export volumes always increase every year. This study aims to analyze the effect of exchange rates, government spending, inflation, interest rates, and sanitation policies to Indonesia fishery export to the United States in 1989-2019. Data were obtained from the Indonesian Ministry of Finance, the World Bank, UN COMTRADE, and the Indonesian Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries. This study uses the Error Coerrection Model (ECM) method to examine the effect of the independent variables on the dependent variable in the long term and short term. This study explains that in the long-term, government spending and exchange rate have positive effect, and interest rates have negative effect on export. In short-term, government spending and exchange rate have positive effect on export. Inflation and sanitation policy do not affect export in the long-term or short-term, while interest rates in the short-term do not affect Indonesian fishery exports. Keywords: Exports, Government Spending, Exchange Rates, Non-Tariff Barriers, Error Correction Model.JEL: F10, F13, C32

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