scholarly journals Determinants of Long-Term Interest Rates in the United States and the Euro Area: A Multivariate Approach

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julien Idier ◽  
Caroline Jardet ◽  
Aymeric de Loubens
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
The United States ◽  
Multivariate Approach

Investing for Growth and Security

2019 ◽  
pp. 193-206
Author(s):  
William G. Gale
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
The United States ◽  
Federal Spending ◽  
President Obama ◽  
Transit Systems ◽  
Historical Levels

Besides its investment in people, the federal government makes critical investments in infrastructure and research and development. Because federal spending in these areas has fallen significantly in recent years and interest rates are low relative to historical levels, this chapter proposes sizable increases for both categories. The increases in infrastructure spending will provide the resources needed to restore and update aging roads, bridges, and public transit systems, while the increases in research and development will help the United States to explore cutting-edge technologies. Policymakers should also fund the military’s long-term plans through 2032, as outlined by President Obama, and let spending grow modestly afterward. That would allow for a continuing presence overseas. If a new war broke out, policymakers presumably would provide the additional temporary funds to ensure that America achieved its mission and emerged victorious.

scholarly journals Long-Term Timber Contracts in the Southeastern United States: Updating the Primer Valuation Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (6) ◽  
pp. 653-665
Author(s):  
Hector I Restrepo ◽  
Bin Mei ◽  
Bronson P Bullock
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
The United States ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Conditional Volatility ◽  
Material Supply

Abstract Timberland ownership has drastically changed in the United States since the 1980s, driven by the divestitures of vertically integrated forest products companies. Having sold their timberland, forest products companies have exposed themselves more to the risk of raw material supply. To hedge against this risk, forest products companies usually use long-term timber contracts (LTTC). The objective of this article is to update the valuation framework for LTTCs proposed by Shaffer (1984) by including alternative option price models and refining the estimates of some key economic variables. In particular, conditional volatility from the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model and quasi-conditional volatility from rolling estimation windows, in addition to simple standard deviation, are used for the volatility estimates in the option pricing models. Contrary to the previous result by Shaffer (1984), our analysis suggests that LTTCs that were once profitable for forest products companies in the 1980s are no longer so under current market conditions. This is primarily because both timber price volatility and the risk-free interest rates have declined significantly. Thus, to be better off, forest products companies need to either lower the administration and management costs of those LTTCs or rely more on the open market for timber procurement. Study Implications: Forest products companies have traditionally relied on long-term timber contracts (LTTC) negotiated with forest landowners to mitigate the risk of raw material supply. The value of these LTTCs highly depends on the economic context. This research provides some insights into the valuation of LTTCs in the southeastern United States. Forest products companies can use this updated framework to aid their decisionmaking in timber procurement.

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT MACROECONOMIC POLICY ON INDONESIA'S FISHERIES EXPORT TO THE UNITED STATES IN 1989-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 267
Author(s):  
Akhmad Jayadi ◽  
Tanto Firmansyah
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

Indonesia is a maritime country that has huge potential in fisheries sector. The average of indonesian fisheries production and export volumes always increase every year. This study aims to analyze the effect of exchange rates, government spending, inflation, interest rates, and sanitation policies to Indonesia fishery export to the United States in 1989-2019. Data were obtained from the Indonesian Ministry of Finance, the World Bank, UN COMTRADE, and the Indonesian Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries. This study uses the Error Coerrection Model (ECM) method to examine the effect of the independent variables on the dependent variable in the long term and short term. This study explains that in the long-term, government spending and exchange rate have positive effect, and interest rates have negative effect on export. In short-term, government spending and exchange rate have positive effect on export. Inflation and sanitation policy do not affect export in the long-term or short-term, while interest rates in the short-term do not affect Indonesian fishery exports. Keywords: Exports, Government Spending, Exchange Rates, Non-Tariff Barriers, Error Correction Model.JEL: F10, F13, C32

Actual interest rates versus hypothetical interest ratesresulting from the Taylor rulein the euro area and the United States

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 22-48
Author(s):  
Tomasz Grabia
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
United States Of America ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
The United States ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Gdp Gap ◽  
Reserve System

The aim of the article is to examine the degree of matching actual interest rates with hypothetical ones, calculated on the basis of original and modified (with greater GDP gap significance when setting interest rates) Taylor rule. The analysis was conducted for the two largest world economies by nominal GDP, i.e. the euro area and the United States of America for the period 2001—2017.Two hypotheses were tested in the article. Firstly, the actual interest rates of the Europe-an Central Bank are more strongly correlated with the rates resulting from the original Taylor rule. Secondly, the actual interest rates of the Federal Reserve System are more strongly correlated with the rates arising from the modified Taylor rule. On the basis of the conducted analysis, the first hypothesis was confirmed, while the second one was rejected.However, it should be noted that the results of the study could be different were it not for the economic crisis, macroeconomic destabilization and lack of the possibility of reducing interest rates related to zero lower bound. That particularly applies to the second hypothesis and the 2008—2017 sub-period.

scholarly journals Determinants Of Long-Term Interest Rates In The United States

2012 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 257
Author(s):  
Charles Kweku Konadu-Adjei ◽  
Roger W. Mayer ◽  
Wen-Wen Chien
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Capital Inflow ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Defined Benefit ◽  
Private And Public

The behavior of the long-term interest rates is a practical problem for private and public organizations. Organizations need to estimate interest rates for purposes of assigning value to long-term obligations such as defined benefit plans and long-term leases and making decisions related to long term capital purchases. The purpose of this study was to analyze the determinants of long-term interest rates in the United States, using 352 quarterly time series data points extending from 1999 to 2009. This study examines how a change in overnight interest rates, budget deficit, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, and net capital inflow impact on long-term interest rates, which is the 30-year U.S. Treasury constant securities rate. We find that the variables (overnight interest rates, expected inflation, budget deficit, foreign capital inflow, and GDP) have statistically significant impact on long-term interest rates in the United States; all variables jointly explain changes in the long-term interest rates. The findings of this study can assist organization as they assign values to long-term obligations and assets.

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