scholarly journals The impact of climate change on the water requirement of grasslands in Serbia

2021 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 291-307
Author(s):  
Ruzica Stricevic ◽  
Aleksandar Simic ◽  
Mirjam Vujadinovic-Mandic ◽  
Dejan Sokolovic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Ensemble Member ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Water Requirement ◽  
Natural Grasslands ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future

Due to the air temperature increase, longer growing seasons and erratic rainfalls in the last two decades, natural grasslands like meadows or pastures grow in unfavourable climatic conditions that disable the regeneration. The aim of this work is to assess the impact of climate changes on the water requirement of grasslands in Serbia. The results of ensembles of nine regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX database were used to analyse future climatic conditions. As the most probable value, the median of scores obtained for each ensemble member was considered. The period of 1986-2005 was used as the reference. The time slices in future periods are: 2016-2035 (the near future), 2046-2065 (the mid-century) and 2081-2100 (the end of the century). Analyses were conducted for two scenarios of GHG emissions: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Permanent grasslands will be more prone to drought risks in the future. Water shortage could be expected at the end of May when the water stored in the soil will be depleted by the duration of drought until September heavy rains. According to both scenarios, an increment of water requirement of 7% could be expected in the near future. The RCP4.5 scenario projects an increase in the water requirement in the range of 10.7-24.2% from the mid to the end of the century. The less favourable but more realistic RCP8.5 scenario projects a water need increment in the range from 4% to 14 % in the mid-century and 28.4-41.9% toward the end of the century. Recent research indicates that drought resistance will be developed through natural diversity and the spread of species resistant to high temperatures and water scarcity.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on water availability in the Oueme catchment at the outlet of the Save's bridge (Benin, West Africa)

2021 ◽  
Vol 384 ◽  
pp. 255-260
Author(s):  
Amedée Chabi ◽  
Esdras Babadjidé Josué Zandagba ◽  
Ezekiel Obada ◽  
Eliezer Iboukoun Biao ◽  
Eric Adéchina Alamou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. One of the major threats to water resources today remains climate change. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on water availability in Oueme catchment at Savè. Precipitation provided by three regional climate models (RCMs) was analyzed. Bias in these data was first corrected using the Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) method be for etheir use as input to hydrological models. To achieve the objective, six hydrological models were used (AWBM, ModHyPMA, HBV, GR4J, SimHyd and Hymod). In projection, the results showed that the AWBM model appears to be the best. The multi-model approach further improves model performance, with the best obtained with combinations of the models AWBM-ModHyPMA-HBV. The AWBM model showed a fairly good capability for simulating flows in the basin with only HIRHAM5 climate model data as input. Therefore, the simulation with the HIRHAM5 data as inputs to the five (05) hydrological models, showed flows that vary at the horizons (2025, 2055 and 2085) under the scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Indeed, this variation is largely due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Evaluating the effect of climate change on snow load on structures

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pietro Croce ◽  
Paolo Formichi ◽  
Filippo Landi ◽  
Francesca Marsili
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Greenhouse Gasses ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact

<p>As consequence of global warming extreme weather events might become more frequent and severe across the globe. The evaluation of the impact of climate change on extremes is then a crucial issue for the resilience of infrastructures and buildings and is a key challenge for adaptation planning. In this paper, a suitable procedure for the estimation of future trends of climatic actions is presented starting from the output of regional climate models and taking into account the uncertainty in the model itself. In particular, the influence of climate change on ground snow loads is discussed in detail and the typical uncertainty range is determined applying an innovative algorithm for weather generation. Considering different greenhouse gasses emission scenarios, some results are presented for the Italian Mediterranean region proving the ability of the method to define factors of change for climate extremes also allowing a sound estimate of the uncertainty range associated with different models.</p>

Changes in extreme surface solar radiation in EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blanka Bartok
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Power Generation ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;As solar energy share is showing a significant growth in the European electricity generation system, assessments regarding long-term variation of this variable related to climate change are becoming more and more relevant for this sector. Several studies analysed the impact of climate change on the solar energy sector in Europe (Jerez et al, 2015) finding light impact (-14%; +2%) in terms of mean surface solar radiation. The present study focuses on extreme values, namely on the distribution of low surface solar radiation (overcast situation) and high surface solar radiation (clear sky situation), since the frequencies of these situations have high impact on electricity generation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The study considers 11 high-resolution (0.11 deg) bias-corrected climate projections from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble with 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) downscaled by 6 Regional Climate Models (RCMs).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Changes in extreme surface solar radiation frequencies show different regional patterns over Europe.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The study also includes a case study determining the changes in solar power generation induced by the extreme situations.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Jerez et al (2015): The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe, Nature Communications 6(1):10014, 10.1038/ncomms10014&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals The impact of RCM formulation and resolution on simulated precipitation in Africa

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minchao Wu ◽  
Grigory Nikulin ◽  
Erik Kjellström ◽  
Danijel Belušić ◽  
Colin Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Primary Control ◽  
Model Formulation ◽  
Simulated Precipitation ◽  
Mean Climate ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We investigate the impact of model formulation and horizontal resolution on the ability of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to simulate precipitation in Africa. Two RCMs – SMHI-RCA4 and HCLIM38-ALADIN are utilized for downscaling the ERA-Interim reanalysis over Africa at four different resolutions: 25, 50, 100 and 200 km. Additionally to the two RCMs, two different configurations of the same RCA4 are used. Contrasting different RCMs, configurations and resolutions it is found that model formulation has the primary control over many aspects of the precipitation climatology in Africa. Patterns of spatial biases in seasonal mean precipitation are mostly defined by model formulation while the magnitude of the biases is controlled by resolution. In a similar way, the phase of the diurnal cycle is completely controlled by model formulation (convection scheme) while its amplitude is a function of resolution. Although higher resolution in many cases leads to smaller biases in the time mean climate, the impact of higher resolution is mixed. An improvement in one region/season (e.g. reduction of dry biases) often corresponds to a deterioration in another region/season (e.g. amplification of wet biases). The experiments confirm a pronounced and well known impact of higher resolution – a more realistic distribution of daily precipitation. Even if the time-mean climate is not always greatly sensitive to resolution, what the time-mean climate is made up of, higher order statistics, is sensitive. Therefore, the realism of the simulated precipitation increases as resolution increases. Our results show that improvements in the ability of RCMs to simulate precipitation in Africa compared to their driving reanalysis in many cases are simply related to model formulation and not necessarily to higher resolution. Such model formulation related improvements are strongly model dependent and in general cannot be considered as an added value of downscaling.

scholarly journals Impact of humidity biases on light precipitation occurrence: observations versus simulations

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie Bastin ◽  
Philippe Drobinski ◽  
Marjolaine Chiriaco ◽  
Olivier Bock ◽  
Romain Roehrig ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Strong Dependence ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Critical Value ◽  
Critical Values ◽  
Frequency Of Occurrence ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Light Precipitation

Abstract. This work uses a network of GPS stations over Europe from which a homogenised integrated water vapor (IWV) dataset has been retrieved, completed with colocated temperature and precipitation measurements over specific stations to i) estimate the biases of six regional climate models over Europe in terms of humidity; ii) understand their origins; iii) and finally assess the impact of these biases on the frequency of occurrence of precipitation. The evaluated simulations have been performed in the framework of HYMEX/Med-CORDEX programs and cover the Mediterranean area and part of Europe at horizontal resolutions of 50 to 12 km. The analysis shows that models tend to overestimate the low values of IWV and the use of the nudging technique reduces the differences between GPS and simulated IWV. Results suggest that physics of models mostly explain the mean biases, while dynamics affects the variability. The land surface/atmosphere exchanges affect the estimation of IWV over most part of Europe, especially in summer. The limitations of the models to represent these processes explain part of their baises in IWV. However, models correctly simulate the dependance between IWV and temperature, and specifically the deviation that this relationship experiences regarding the Clausius-Clapeyron law after a critical value of temperature (Tbreak). The high spatial variability of Tbreak indicates that it has a strong dependence on local processes which drive the local humidity sources. This explains why the maximum values of IWV are not necessarely observed over warmer area, that are often dry area. Finally, it is shown over SIRTA observatory (near Paris) that the frequency of occurrence of light precipitation is strongly conditioned by the biases in IWV and by the precision of the models to reproduce the distribution of IWV as a function of the temperature. The results of the models indicate that a similar dependence occurs in other areas of Europe, especially where precipitation has a predominantly convective character. According to the observations, for each range of temperature, there is a critical value of IWV from which precipitation picks up. The critical values and the probability to exceed them are simulated with a bias that depends on the model. Those models which present too often light precipitation generally show lower critical values and higher probability to exceed them.

scholarly journals Influence of parallel computational uncertainty on simulations of the Coupled General Climate Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 313-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Song ◽  
F. Qiao ◽  
X. Lei ◽  
C. Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Quality Standard ◽  
Ensemble Member ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Computational Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact ◽  
General Climate

Abstract. This paper investigates the impact of the parallel computational uncertainty due to the round-off error on climate simulations using the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). A series of sensitivity experiments have been conducted and the analyses are focused on the Global and Nino3.4 average sea surface temperatures (SST). For the monthly time series, it is shown that the amplitude of the deviation induced by the parallel computational uncertainty is the same order as that of the climate system change. However, the ensemble mean method can reduce the influence and the ensemble member number of 15 is enough to ignore the uncertainty. For climatology, the influence can be ignored when the climatological mean is calculated by using more than 30-yr simulations. It is also found that the parallel computational uncertainty has no distinguishable effect on power spectrum analysis of climate variability such as ENSO. Finally, it is suggested that the influence of the parallel computational uncertainty on Coupled General Climate Models (CGCMs) can be a quality standard or a metric for developing CGCMs.

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on Material Degradation Criteria in Heritage over Iran: Regional Climate Model Evaluation

2020 ◽  
Vol 172 ◽  
pp. 02006
Author(s):  
Hamed Hedayatnia ◽  
Marijke Steeman ◽  
Nathan Van Den Bossche
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Salt Crystallization ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
The Impact

Understanding how climate change accelerates or slows down the process of material deterioration is the first step towards assessing adaptive approaches for the preservation of historical heritage. Analysis of the climate change effects on the degradation risk assessment parameters like salt crystallization cycles is of crucial importance when considering mitigating actions. Due to the vulnerability of cultural heritage in Iran to climate change, the impact of this phenomenon on basic parameters plus variables more critical to building damage like salt crystallization index needs to be analyzed. Regional climate modelling projections can be used to asses the impact of climate change effects on heritage. The output of two different regional climate models, the ALARO-0 model (Ghent University-RMI, Belgium) and the REMO model (HZG-GERICS, Germany), is analyzed to find out which model is more adapted to the region. So the focus of this research is mainly on the evaluation to determine the reliability of both models over the region. For model validation, a comparison between model data and observations was performed in 4 different climate zones for 30 years to find out how reliable these models are in the field of building pathology.

scholarly journals Continentality and Oceanity in the Mid and High Latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and Their Links to Atmospheric Circulation

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edvinas Stonevicius ◽  
Gintautas Stankunavicius ◽  
Egidijus Rimkus
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Teleconnection Patterns ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Impact

The climate continentality or oceanity is one of the main characteristics of the local climatic conditions, which varies with global and regional climate change. This paper analyzes indexes of continentality and oceanity, as well as their variations in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in the period 1950–2015. Climatology and changes in continentality and oceanity are examined using Conrad’s Continentality Index (CCI) and Kerner’s Oceanity Index (KOI). The impact of Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns on continentality/oceanity conditions was also evaluated. According to CCI, continentality is more significant in Northeast Siberia and lower along the Pacific coast of North America as well as in coastal areas in the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean. However, according to KOI, areas of high continentality do not precisely correspond with those of low oceanity, appearing to the south and west of those identified by CCI. The spatial patterns of changes in continentality thus seem to be different. According to CCI, a statistically significant increase in continentality has only been found in Northeast Siberia. In contrast, in the western part of North America and the majority of Asia, continentality has weakened. According to KOI, the climate has become increasingly continental in Northern Europe and the majority of North America and East Asia. Oceanity has increased in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and in some parts of the Mediterranean region. Changes in continentality were primarily related to the increased temperature of the coldest month as a consequence of changes in atmospheric circulation: the positive phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic (EA) patterns has dominated in winter in recent decades. Trends in oceanity may be connected with the diminishing extent of seasonal sea ice and an associated increase in sea surface temperature.

scholarly journals Chilling accumulation in fruit trees in Spain under climate change

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 1087-1103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfredo Rodríguez ◽  
David Pérez-López ◽  
Enrique Sánchez ◽  
Ana Centeno ◽  
Iñigo Gómara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Fruit Trees ◽  
Calculation Model ◽  
Cold Temperatures ◽  
Tree Crops ◽  
Chilling Requirements ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Growing trees are quite vulnerable to cold temperatures. To minimise the effect of these cold temperatures, they stop their growth over the coldest months of the year, a state called dormancy. In particular, endodormancy requires accumulating chilling temperatures to finish this sort of dormancy. The accumulation of cool temperatures according to specific rules is called chilling accumulation, and each tree species and variety has specific chilling requirements for correct plant development. Under global warming, it is expected that the fulfilment of the chilling requirements to break dormancy in fruit trees could be compromised. In this study, the impact of climate change on the chilling accumulation over peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands was assessed. For this purpose, bias-adjusted results of 10 regional climate models (RCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 were used as inputs of four different models for calculating chilling accumulation, and the results for each model were individually compared for the 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 future periods under both RCPs. These results project a generalised reduction in chilling accumulation regardless of the RCP, future period or chilling calculation model used, with higher reductions for the 2071–2100 period and the RCP8.5 scenario. The projected winter chill decrease may threaten the viability of some tree crops and varieties in some areas where the crop is currently grown, but also shows scope for varieties with lower chilling requirements. The results are relevant for planning future tree plantations under climate change, supporting adaptation of spatial distribution of tree crops and varieties in Spain.

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