scholarly journals The Relationship between Unemployment and Inflation in Sudan: An Empirical Analysis, 1992-2015

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 113
Author(s):  
Badreldin Mohamed Ahmed Abdulrahman ◽  
Adam Ahmed Soliman Sabil ◽  
Adil Abdalla Adam Mohamed
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Empirical Point ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Annual Time

<p><em>This<strong> </strong>study investigated from an empirical point of view, the relationship between unemployment and inflation in Sudan during the period 1992-2015. Annual time series data has been used in the analysis to estimate the model for the period under consideration. Data for the study were obtained from central bank of Sudan and central bureau of statistics. Using these data, Granger test is applied to estimate the causal relationship between unemployment and inflation. The results provided that unemployment does not Granger cause Inflation, and inflation dose not Granger cause unemployment. Thus, there is no causality relationship between inflation rates and unemployment rates in Sudan from 1992-2015.</em><em></em></p>

scholarly journals Concessional Debt and Growth in Services Sector of Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol VI (II) ◽  
pp. 215-223
Author(s):  
Muhammad Abdullah ◽  
Ayza Shoukat ◽  
Atif Ali Gill
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Annual Time

The current study aims to explore the relationship between concessional debt and the services sector growth of Pakistan. The annual time series data for the period 1972 to 2019 has been employed. To find out the stationarity and order of integration, the ADF testis utilized. For the long-run relationship, Johansen's co-integration methodology is employed. The empirical results of the study manifest that growth in the services sector is sensitive to concessional debt in the long run. All other explanatory variables also demonstrated a positive and significant effect on services sector growth. VECM method is applied for short-run analysis. The lag of concessional debt is also positive in the short run. A negative and statistically significant lag of error correction term (ECT-1) reasserts the long-run relationship between services sector growth and concessional debt along with other explanatory variables.

The Influence of Unemployment on the Level and Rate of Company Formation in Scotland, 1950–1984

1986 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 1401-1404 ◽  
Author(s):  
R T Hamilton
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Yearly Variation ◽  
Self Employment ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Annual Time

In this paper annual time-series data are used to examine the relationship between unemployment and both the level and the rate of new company registrations in Scotland between 1950 and 1984. Lagged unemployment rate and changes in this rate (also lagged) are shown to explain in excess of 90% of the yearly variation in registration activity. The results indicate the importance of those factors, for example, unemployment or the threat thereof, which act to ‘push’ individuals into self-employment.

scholarly journals RE-EXAMINING THE LINK BETWEEN FINANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: THE GREGORY AND HANSEN(1996) COINTEGRATION APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-7
Author(s):  
SUNDAY ELIJAH ◽  
NAMADINA HAMZA
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Significant Negative Relationship ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Annual Time

The financial sector is considered as vital in the process of growth of economies both developed and developing. Economists and researchers have sough to investigate the relationship between duo with conflicting and incnclusive results. Hence, in a developing country like Nigeria, the results remains same. Example,  Akinlo (2010) finds a significant positive relationship between development of the financial sector and economic growth. Other studies like Nyong (1997) find a significant negative relationship between finance and economic growth.Therefore, this study seeks to re-examine the relationship between Nigeria’s finance and economic growth using annual time series data from 1981 to 2015. Similarly, it seeks to find out if there exist a structural break in the data and whether it matters in determining the relationship between finance and economic growth.The study finds a signifcant negative relationship between finance and econmic growth after accounting for structural break  and that inclusion of break in the estimated model enhance its performance.The study recommends that future macroeconomic studies should check for breaks and if present be considered in estimation of such models.

Income and Price Elasticities in India's Trade

1994 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 13-20
Author(s):  
G S Gupta ◽  
H Keshava
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Price Elasticities ◽  
The World ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Income And Price Elasticities ◽  
Annual Time

This article by G S Gupta and H Keshava estimates the export and import functions for India both at the aggregate (rest of the world) as well as the important individual country levels using annual time series data for the period 1960-61 through 1990-91.

Government Partisanship, Labor Organization, and Macroeconomic Performance

1991 ◽  
Vol 85 (2) ◽  
pp. 539-556 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Michael Alvarez ◽  
Geoffrey Garrett ◽  
Peter Lange
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Organized Labor ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Labor Movements ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Industrial Democracies ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Left And Right ◽  
Annual Time

Governments of the Left and Right have distinct partisan economic policies and objectives that they would prefer to pursue. Their propensity to do so, however, is constrained by their desire for reelection. We argue that the ability of governments to further their partisan interests and preside over reelectable macroeconomic outcomes simultaneously is dependent on the organization of the domestic economy, particularly the labor movement. We hypothesize that there are two different paths to desirable macroeconomic performance. In countries with densely and centrally organized labor movements, leftist governments can promote economic growth and reduce inflation and unemployment. Conversely, in countries with weak labor movements, rightist governments can pursue their partisan-preferred macroeconomic strategies and achieve similarly beneficial macroeconomic outcomes. Performance will be poorer in other cases. These hypotheses are supported by analysis of pooled annual time series data for 16 advanced industrial democracies between 1967 and 1984.

scholarly journals OPEN DEFECATION IN MALAWI: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 156-165
Author(s):  
Smartson. P. NYONI ◽  
Thabani NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Open Defecation ◽  
Sanitation And Hygiene ◽  
Vision 2030 ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Annual Time

Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Malawi from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2021. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the M series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 1, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented model is stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Malawi is likely to decline, over the period 2018 – 2022, from approximately 5.1% to almost 2.8% of the total population. Indeed, by 2030, open defecation can be eliminated in Malawi: hence, the country is in the right track with regards to its vision 2030 (on water, sanitation and hygiene). The study suggested a 3-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the government of Malawi.

scholarly journals THE NEXUS BETWEEN TAX REFORMATION, FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY: THE CASE OF MALAYSIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 1258-1279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roshaiza TAHA ◽  
Jūratė ŠLIOGERIENĖ ◽  
Nanthakumar LOGANATHAN ◽  
Izolda JOKŠIENĖ ◽  
Muhammad SHAHBAZ ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
New Policies ◽  
The Relationship

The main purpose of this paper is to establish the plausibility and the dynamic nexus between financial developments, economic growth and tax revenue in Malaysia. The analysis of these relationships is vital considering the instability of the global economy which has affected growth. In this study, we employed annual time series data covering the period of 1970–2015. Using advanced co-integration and causality analysis, we found strong evidence on the relationship between each of the examined variables. The results from this study provide evidence on the taxes-growth nexus for Malaysia. An inverted U-shaped relationship is found between financial development and tax collection, while a U-shape reflects the economic condition. The nexus between economic growth and tax revenue enhances fiscal policies in the creation of transparent and mature financial systems which will further boost the collection of government revenues in Malaysia. The results of this study may provide an avenue for researchers and policymakers to understand the nature of the relationship between the examined variables and further assist in the formulation of new policies for economic sustainability.

scholarly journals LONG-RUN MONEY AND INFLATION NEUTRALITY TEST IN INDONESIA

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-99
Author(s):  
Arintoko Arintoko
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Money Stock ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Positive Effect

This paper investigates long-run neutrality of money and inflation in Indonesia, with due consideration to the order of integration, exogeneity, and cointegration of the money stock-real output and the money stock-price, using annual time-series data. The Fisher-Seater methodology is used to do the task in this research. The empirical results indicate that evidence rejected the long-run neutrality of money (both defined as M1 and M2) with respect to real GDP, showing that it is inconsistent with the classical and neoclassical economics. However, the positive link between the money and price in long run holds for money defined as M1 rather than M2, which consistent with these theories. In particular, besides the positive effect to long-run inflation, monetary expansions have long-run positive effect on real output in the Indonesian economy.JEL Classification: C32, E31, E51Keywords: long-run neutrality of money, inflation, unit root, exogeneity, cointegration

scholarly journals Arima forecasting of the prevalence of anemia in children in Sierra Leone

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 67-70
Author(s):  
Smartson. P. NYONI ◽  
Thabani NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Optimal Model ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Prevalence Of Anemia ◽  
Children Under 5

Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Sierra Leone from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the AS series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the AR (4) model, also known as the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further show us that the presented model is stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the study indicate that the prevalence of anemia in children in Sierra Leone will rise over the out-of-sample period. By 2025, the country will be having a prevalence of anemia in children of approximately 78.6%.

scholarly journals Adults newly infected with hiv in burundi: a box-jenkins arima approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 48-56
Author(s):  
Smartson P. NYONI ◽  
Thabani NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Hiv Infections ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Optimal Model ◽  
Applied Model ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
And Control ◽  
Blue Print ◽  
Annual Time

Using annual time series data on the number of adults (ages 15 and above) newly infected with HIV in Burundi from 1990 – 2018, the study predicts the annual number of adults who will be newly infected with HIV over the period 2019 – 2025. The study applied the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests as well as correlogram analysis show that the G series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model as the optimal model. The residual correlogram and the inverse roots of the applied model further reveal that the presented model is stable and suitable for forecasting new HIV infections in adults in Burundi. The results of the study indicate that the number of new HIV infections in adults in Burundi will most likely decline, over the period 2019 – 2023, from approximately 698 to almost 90 new HIV infections. By 2025, Burundi could experience her first zero new HIV infections in adults! This implies that, despite the fact that Vision Burundi 2025 is a highly ambitious blue-print; Vision Burundi 2025 will largely be achieved as far as HIV/AIDS prevention and control is concerned.

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