The Influence of Unemployment on the Level and Rate of Company Formation in Scotland, 1950–1984

1986 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 1401-1404 ◽  
Author(s):  
R T Hamilton
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Yearly Variation ◽  
Self Employment ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Annual Time

In this paper annual time-series data are used to examine the relationship between unemployment and both the level and the rate of new company registrations in Scotland between 1950 and 1984. Lagged unemployment rate and changes in this rate (also lagged) are shown to explain in excess of 90% of the yearly variation in registration activity. The results indicate the importance of those factors, for example, unemployment or the threat thereof, which act to ‘push’ individuals into self-employment.

Income and Price Elasticities in India's Trade

1994 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 13-20
Author(s):  
G S Gupta ◽  
H Keshava
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Price Elasticities ◽  
The World ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Income And Price Elasticities ◽  
Annual Time

This article by G S Gupta and H Keshava estimates the export and import functions for India both at the aggregate (rest of the world) as well as the important individual country levels using annual time series data for the period 1960-61 through 1990-91.

Subsidies and Fiscal Deficit in Post Reforms India

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasoda Jena ◽  
Chittaranjan Nayak
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Goods ◽  
Annual Time

The Government of India has been subsidising various economic goods, mainly food, fertiliser and petroleum. It is argued that subsidies are responsible for persistent high fiscal deficit over the years. The present paper attempts to study the trend of major subsidies given by the Government of India, and then examines whether all the forms of subsidies are uniformly responsible for fiscal deficit or otherwise. Based on annual time series data from 1992-93 to 2012-13, the study observes that in the post-reforms period, food and fertiliser subsidies have grown at a sharper rate than petroleum subsidies. The regression results also confirm that food and fertiliser subsidies have a positive and significant impact on fiscal deficit. The analysis of petroleum subsidies is more complicated. If we see only the explicit subsidies for petroleum products, then their rise is not significant over the post-reforms period, except for 2008-12. However, when we include the under-recoveries of Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), the story of petroleum subsidies becomes completely different. While the effectiveness of subsidies vis-à-vis their fiscal burden need a detailed scrutiny, the present paper argues for a National Policy on Subsidies.

scholarly journals Total new HIV infections in Togo: a box-jenkins arima approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 16-21
Author(s):  
Smartson. P. NYONI ◽  
Thabani NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Hiv Infections ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Optimal Model ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Normally Distributed

Using annual time series data on the total number of new HIV infections in Togo from 1990 – 2018, the study makes predictions for the period 2019 – 2030. The research applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, J, the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 2) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is indeed stable and its residuals are not serially correlated and are also normally distributed. The results of the study indicate that the total number of new HIV infections in Togo is projected to decline sharply by 53.5% from the estimated 4791 new infections in 2019 to approximately 2229 new infections by 2030.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Unemployment and Inflation in Sudan: An Empirical Analysis, 1992-2015

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 113
Author(s):  
Badreldin Mohamed Ahmed Abdulrahman ◽  
Adam Ahmed Soliman Sabil ◽  
Adil Abdalla Adam Mohamed
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Empirical Point ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Annual Time

<p><em>This<strong> </strong>study investigated from an empirical point of view, the relationship between unemployment and inflation in Sudan during the period 1992-2015. Annual time series data has been used in the analysis to estimate the model for the period under consideration. Data for the study were obtained from central bank of Sudan and central bureau of statistics. Using these data, Granger test is applied to estimate the causal relationship between unemployment and inflation. The results provided that unemployment does not Granger cause Inflation, and inflation dose not Granger cause unemployment. Thus, there is no causality relationship between inflation rates and unemployment rates in Sudan from 1992-2015.</em><em></em></p>

scholarly journals Concessional Debt and Growth in Services Sector of Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol VI (II) ◽  
pp. 215-223
Author(s):  
Muhammad Abdullah ◽  
Ayza Shoukat ◽  
Atif Ali Gill
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Annual Time

The current study aims to explore the relationship between concessional debt and the services sector growth of Pakistan. The annual time series data for the period 1972 to 2019 has been employed. To find out the stationarity and order of integration, the ADF testis utilized. For the long-run relationship, Johansen's co-integration methodology is employed. The empirical results of the study manifest that growth in the services sector is sensitive to concessional debt in the long run. All other explanatory variables also demonstrated a positive and significant effect on services sector growth. VECM method is applied for short-run analysis. The lag of concessional debt is also positive in the short run. A negative and statistically significant lag of error correction term (ECT-1) reasserts the long-run relationship between services sector growth and concessional debt along with other explanatory variables.

scholarly journals Arima forecasting of the prevalence of anemia in children in Myanmar

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 51-55
Author(s):  
Smartson. P. NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Parsimonious Model ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Prevalence Of Anemia ◽  
Children Under 5

Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Myanmar from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, AM, the series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents an AR (4) model, which is also called the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model. This has been found to be the parsimonious model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is quite stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the research indicate that the prevalence of anemia in children in Myanmar will rise from approximately 54.5% in 2017 to almost 64.8% by 2025. This means that anemia is not yet under control in the country. This is a wake up call to both public health policy makers and nutrition specialists in the country. Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Myanmar from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, AM, the series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents an AR (4) model, which is also called the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model. 

scholarly journals Total New Hiv Infections In Gabon: A Box-Jenkins Arima Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (10) ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Smartson. P. NYONI ◽  
Thabani NYONI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Hiv Infections ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Parsimonious Model ◽  
Annual Time

Using annual time series data on the total number of new HIV infections in Gabon from 1990 – 2018, the study makes predictions for the period 2019 – 2030. The paper employs the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, H, the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model as the parsimonious model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is very stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the study indicate that the total number of new HIV infections in Gabon is likely to continue declining over the out-of-sample period.

scholarly journals RE-EXAMINING THE LINK BETWEEN FINANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: THE GREGORY AND HANSEN(1996) COINTEGRATION APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-7
Author(s):  
SUNDAY ELIJAH ◽  
NAMADINA HAMZA
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Significant Negative Relationship ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Annual Time

The financial sector is considered as vital in the process of growth of economies both developed and developing. Economists and researchers have sough to investigate the relationship between duo with conflicting and incnclusive results. Hence, in a developing country like Nigeria, the results remains same. Example,  Akinlo (2010) finds a significant positive relationship between development of the financial sector and economic growth. Other studies like Nyong (1997) find a significant negative relationship between finance and economic growth.Therefore, this study seeks to re-examine the relationship between Nigeria’s finance and economic growth using annual time series data from 1981 to 2015. Similarly, it seeks to find out if there exist a structural break in the data and whether it matters in determining the relationship between finance and economic growth.The study finds a signifcant negative relationship between finance and econmic growth after accounting for structural break  and that inclusion of break in the estimated model enhance its performance.The study recommends that future macroeconomic studies should check for breaks and if present be considered in estimation of such models.

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