scholarly journals ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODELS FOR AIR TRAFFIC PASSENGER OF INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 303
Author(s):  
Viktor Suryan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Air Traffic ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Transport Services ◽  
Airline Passengers ◽  
Per Capita

One of the major benefits of the air transport services operating in bigger countries is the fact that they provide a vital social economic linkage. This study is an attempt to establish the determinants of the passenger air traffic in Indonesia. The main objective of the study is to determine the economic variables that affect the number of airline passengers using the econometrics model of projection with an emphasis on the use of panel data and to determine the economic variables that affect the number of airline passengers using the econometrics model of projection with an emphasis on the use of time series data. This research also predicts the upcoming number of air traffic passenger until 2030. Air transportation and the economic activity in a country are interdependent. This work first uses the data at the country level and then at the selected airport level for review. The methodology used in this study has adopted the study for both normal regression and panel data regression techniques. Once all these steps are performed, the final equation is taken up for the forecast of the passenger inflow data in the Indonesian airports. To forecast the same, the forecasted numbers of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and population (independent variables were chosen as a part of the literature review exercise) are used. The result of this study shows the GDP per capita have significant related to a number of passengers which the elasticity 2.23 (time-series data) and 1.889 for panel data. The exchange rate variable is unrelated to a number of passengers as shown in the value of elasticity. In addition, the total of population gives small value for the elasticity. Moreover, the number of passengers is also affected by the dummy variable (deregulation). With three scenarios: low, medium and high for GDP per capita, the percentage of growth for total number of air traffic passenger from the year 2015 to 2030 is 199.3%, 205.7%, and 320.9% respectively.

scholarly journals PENGARUH TENAGA KERJA INDONESIA DI LUAR NEGERI DAN REMITANSI TERHADAP PDB PER KAPITA DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-248
Author(s):  
Ade Eka Afriska ◽  
T. Zulham ◽  
Taufiq C. Dawood
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
International Finance ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Series Data ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Money Transfer ◽  
Per Capita

Money transfer or remittances is one of the main sources of international finance that sometimes exceed the flow of foreign direct investment. This research aims to observe the influence of TKI and the remittance to GDP per Capita in Indonesia by using time series data from the years 1990-2016. Method of the research used Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL). In Indonesia, the money transfer (remittance) is second after oil and gas (state budget sources or APBN). The result showed that the TKI and positive and significant influential remmitance to GDP per capita Indonesia. Although GDP per capita increased Indonesia result of remittance, but government should increase employment in Indonesia so that Indonesia does not labor must fight and workabroad.Keywords: Remittance, TKI, GDP Per capita, the ARDL.AbstrakPengiriman uang (remitansi) merupakan salah satu sumber keuangan internasional utama yang terkadang melebihi arus investasi langsung asing. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengamati pengaruh TKI dan remitansi terhadap PDB Per Kapita di Indonesia dengan menggunakan data time series dari tahun 1990-2016. Metode analisis yang digunakan yaitu Autoregressive DistributedLagged (ARDL). Di Indonesia, pengiriman uang (remitansi) merupakan sumber APBN kedua setelah Migas. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa TKI dan remitansi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap PDB per kapita Indonesia. Meskipun PDB per Kapita Indonesia meningkat akibat dari remitansi, akan tetapi pemerintah harus meningkatkan lapangan pekerjaan di Indonesia agar tenaga kerja Indonesia tidak harus berjuang dan bekerja di luar negeri

Comparative Study on BRIC Carbon Dioxide Emissions - Econometric Empirical Test Based on Cross-Century Time Series Data

2012 ◽  
Vol 616-618 ◽  
pp. 1512-1515
Author(s):  
Wei Hua Du
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Comparative Statics ◽  
Total Carbon ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Bric Countries ◽  
Per Capita

Take for example the BRIC economies: Brazil, Russia, India and China. We investigated the time series data on the relationship between carbon dioxide emission and economic growth in these fast-growing developing countries by both comparative statics and comparative dynamics. The results show that there is the monotonic relationship between total carbon dioxide emissions, carbon dioxide emissions per capita and per capita GDP in any one of the BRIC countries. And there is decreasing relationship between the carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP and per capita GDP.

scholarly journals Testing the Existence of the Ricardian Equivalence in Ghana in this 21st Century

1970 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 16-27
Author(s):  
Okwan Frank ◽  
Kovacs Peter
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ricardian Equivalence ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Per Capita

The Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis formulated by a classical British economist David Ricardo argues that a reduced tax now is a tax increase in the future, the substitution of debt for current taxes has no effect on aggregate demand. The main objective of this paper is to examine empirically the existence of the Ricardian equivalency in Ghana by using time series data running from 1990 to 2017 and ARDL bound testing approach to cointegration and Error Correction Model framework developed by Pesaran and Shin (1995,1999). We examined the long run relationship between the dependent variable household final consumption expenditure and independent variables government expenditure, deficit, GDP per capita and gross debt. The long run results showed a positive and significant relationship between GDP per capita and household consumption expenditure. The result of analysis supports the Keynesian conventional theory and found strong evidence against the existence of the Ricardian Equivalency Hypothesis in Ghana.

scholarly journals ESTIMATION OF AUTOREGRESSIVE ROOTS NEAR UNITY USING PANEL DATA

2000 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 927-997 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyungsik R. Moon ◽  
Peter C.B. Phillips
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Test Statistics ◽  
Rate Condition ◽  
Panel Models ◽  
Stochastic Trends ◽  
Efficient Extraction

Time series data are often well modeled by using the device of an autoregressive root that is local to unity. Unfortunately, the localizing parameter (c) is not consistently estimable using existing time series econometric techniques and the lack of a consistent estimator complicates inference. This paper develops procedures for the estimation of a common localizing parameter using panel data. Pooling information across individuals in a panel aids the identification and estimation of the localizing parameter and leads to consistent estimation in simple panel models. However, in the important case of models with concomitant deterministic trends, it is shown that pooled panel estimators of the localizing parameter are asymptotically biased. Some techniques are developed to overcome this difficulty, and consistent estimators of c in the region c < 0 are developed for panel models with deterministic and stochastic trends. A limit distribution theory is also established, and test statistics are constructed for exploring interesting hypotheses, such as the equivalence of local to unity parameters across subgroups of the population. The methods are applied to the empirically important problem of the efficient extraction of deterministic trends. They are also shown to deliver consistent estimates of distancing parameters in nonstationary panel models where the initial conditions are in the distant past. In the development of the asymptotic theory this paper makes use of both sequential and joint limit approaches. An important limitation in the operation of the joint asymptotics that is sometimes needed in our development is the rate condition n/T → 0. So the results in the paper are likely to be most relevant in panels where T is large and n is moderately large.

scholarly journals Emisi Karbon dan Produk Domestik Bruto: Investigasi Hipotesis Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) pada Negara Berpendapatan Menengah di Kawasan ASEAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 230-246
Author(s):  
Muhamad Ameer Noor ◽  
Putu Mahardika Adi Saputra
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Kuznets Curve ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Per Capita

Policymakers in the world are concerned with carbon emission due to the risk of global warming. Many studies on Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) consider carbon emission as a proxy of environmental degradation. This study aimed to investigate the existence of EKC and identify variations of relationships between carbon emissions and GDP per capita in ASEAN middle-income countries. The study was conducted on Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, and Malaysia based on 1971-2014 time series data using a simultaneous model (2SLS) for each country. The main variables studied were GDP per capita, square of GDP per capita, and carbon emission supported by other variables as the controlling variables. Validation on EKC existence was determined by GDP and GDP squared influence on carbon emission, while variations of relationship between GDP and carbon emission were based on the result of simultaneous regressions. The results showed that the existence of the EKC could not be validated in all countries because energy and transportation policies in each country failed to reduce the emission. On the other hand, carbon emission had a positive unidirectional influence on GDP in all countries. The effect of carbon emission coefficient to GDP showed that Thailand ranked the highest in CO2 efficiency, followed by Indonesia, Philippines, and Malaysia. This study recommended that carbon emission reduction policies in the four countries should focus more to easier access to environmentally friendly technology from developed countries for ensuring trade-offs between the economy and environment.

scholarly journals DETERMINASI EKSPOR NON MIGAS INDONESIA KE JEPANG

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 147
Author(s):  
Soeharjoto Soeharjoto
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Capita Income ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Per Capita Income ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Per Capita

<em></em><em><em>This study aims to determine the factors that affect Indonesia's non-oil exports to Japan. The variables used are imports, exchange rates, per capita income, inflation and non-oil exports of Indonesia to Japan</em>. <em>The analytical method used is regression analysis with data used for quarterly time series data from 2005-2016.</em> <em>The results are variable imports of raw and auxiliary materials, cycles, inflation, real Japanese GDP, and the population is able to explain Indonesia's non-oil exports to Japan by 31.3 percent. Imports, exchange rates, per capita income and inflation have a positive and significant effect on non-oil and gas exports to Japan.</em></em><em> </em>

scholarly journals Effects of Legal Designation and Management of a Multiple-Use Protected Area on Local Sustainability

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 3176 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Rodríguez-Rodríguez ◽  
Iván López
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Mixed Methods Research ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Subjective Effects ◽  
Natura 2000 ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Multiple Use ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Local Sustainability

The designation of protected areas (PAs) entails environmental, social, and economic effects to local stakeholders through access restriction to natural resources. We used a mixed methods research framework that combines time series analysis and stakeholder surveys to elicit objective and subjective effects of legal and managerial designation of Sierra Cabrera-Bedar Natura 2000 site on local sustainability in south-eastern Spain. Firstly, 47 environmental, social, and economic variables for which official time series data were available were assessed using a multiple-paired-Before-After-Control-Impact research design, where “Impacts” were: (1) legal designation of Sierra Cabrera-Bedar as a Site of Community Importance (SCI); and (2) management implementation of the site as an Special Area of Conservation (SAC). The two municipalities having most of their territories in Sierra Cabrera-Bedar SCI/SAC were selected as ‘Cases’, whereas two similar municipalities outside the PA were chosen as ‘Controls’. Additionally, 13 local organisations pertaining to 11 socioeconomic guilds from case municipalities were surveyed on their perceived effects of the designation Sierra Cabrera-Bedar as an SAC on 28 social and economic variables. The effects of legal and managerial protection of the site on local sustainability were unclear although greater SAC sustainability is suggested, even though limited time series availability for the SAC period increases uncertainty. Local organisations perceived mostly limited and negative socioeconomic effects from SAC designation. Disagreement between statistical and perceptual results suggests use of time series analyses for accurate assessment of socioeconomic effects of PAs in Spain.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Dana Desa Dan Alokasi Dana Gampong Terhadap Kemiskinan Di Kecamatan Makmur Kabupaten Bireuen

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 11
Author(s):  
Aida Fitri ◽  
Khairil Anwar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Fund Allocation ◽  
Data Analysis Method

This study aims to determine how much Influence funds and village fund allocation have on poverty in Makmur District, Bireuen Regency. This study uses the panel data analysis method. Which is a combination of time-series data from 2015 to 2019, and a cross-section involving 27 villages and results in 135 observations. The results show that village funds have a negative and significant effect on poverty in the Makmur sub-district. Meanwhile, the allocation of village fund has no significant effect on poverty in the Makmur sub-district.Keywords:Village Fund, VillageFund Allocation, Poverty.

scholarly journals Transitional dynamics of the saving rate and economic growth

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Markus Brueckner ◽  
Tomoo Kikuchi ◽  
George Vachadze
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Income Elasticity ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Supporting Evidence ◽  
Saving Rate ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Rich Countries

Abstract We estimate the relationship between GDP per capita growth and the growth rate of the national saving rate using a panel of 130 countries over the period 1960–2017. We find that GDP per capita growth increases (decreases) the growth rate of the national saving rate in poor countries (rich countries), and a higher credit-to-GDP ratio decreases the national saving rate as well as the income elasticity of the national saving rate. We develop a model with a credit constraint to explain the growth-saving relationship by the saving behavior of entrepreneurs at both the intensive and extensive margins. We further present supporting evidence for our theoretical findings by utilizing cross-country time series data of the number of new businesses registered and the corporate saving rate.

scholarly journals A non-equilibrium formulation of food security resilience

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 160874 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Smerlak ◽  
Bapu Vaitla
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Food Security ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Security Policies ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Non Equilibrium

Resilience, the ability to recover from adverse events, is of fundamental importance to food security. This is especially true in poor countries, where basic needs are frequently threatened by economic, environmental and health shocks. An empirically sound formalization of the concept of food security resilience, however, is lacking. Here, we introduce a general non-equilibrium framework for quantifying resilience based on the statistical notion of persistence. Our approach can be applied to any food security variable for which high-frequency time-series data are available. We illustrate our method with per capita kilocalorie availability for 161 countries between 1961 and 2011. We find that resilient countries are not necessarily those that are characterized by high levels or less volatile fluctuations of kilocalorie intake. Accordingly, food security policies and programmes will need to be tailored not only to welfare levels at any one time, but also to long-run welfare dynamics.

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